Weekly Economic Activity Measures thru 8/20

As measured by the Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI:

 Figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for US plus 2% trend (green) Source: NY Fed via FREDOECDWECI, and author’s calculations.

The WEI reading for the week ending 8/20 of 2.8 is interpretable as a y/y quarter growth of 2.8% if the 2.8 reading were to persist for an entire quarter. The OECD Weekly Tracker reading of 1.9 is interpretable as a y/y growth rate of 1.9% for year ending 8/6. The Baumeister et al. reading of 2.1% for the week ending 6/25 is interpreted as a 2.1% growth rate in excess of long term trend growth rate. Average growth of US GDP over the 2000-19 period is about 2%.

 

53 thoughts on “Weekly Economic Activity Measures thru 8/20

  1. Ivan

    Yes it would be insane to think we are in a recession now. Whether we get there sometime next year will depend on how badly the Fed overshoots their rate hikes in the next 6 months. That is basically impossible to predict (if I could I would be very rich).

    1. Macroduck

      Not just the Fed. Let’s not ignore spill-over risk from China and Europe.

      Moses, help me out.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ Macroduck
        “Part 2” from Pettis?? Haven’t read it yet. Sneak past the “FT” paywall”?? Europe explains itself on natural gas. I’m drinking a little bit now to tell you the truth, and I feel so ENRAGED by Jerome Powell’s comments in NYT I’m not sure if I’m thinking clearly. It just makes me so ANGRY

      2. Moses Herzog

        Pettis came out with “Part 2” two days ago. I haven’t read it, I trust Pettis so much, I’m gonna tell you it’s a “must read” even though I didn’t read it/ Alot of answers here I think, 6 months, 9 months forward, this is still gonna read good on the China picture, and maybe when China “sneezes” on America/ world economically.
        https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/87751

        Read it folks

    2. JohnH

      Whether we’re in a recession now depends largely on who you ask. Certainly, you can’t blame the average American worker for thinking that we’re in a recession, since median usual weekly real earnings have regressed to early 2020 levels. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

      But who cares about the economic wellbeing of the average American when it’s more fun to obsess about GDP?

      1. Macroduck

        No , Johnny, it doesn’t depend on who you ask. That’s like saying “Is there a box of crayons in the drawer?” depends on who you ask. Some people may thnk there is. Others may think there isn’t. But there’s an objectively correct answer whch you can learn by looking in the drawer. Sort of a “Schrodinger’s crayon” situation.

        And I’m willing to make you that bet about what’s in the drawer, Johnny.

        1. Ivan

          But then if you don’t like the answer, then you can just redefine what the word “crayons” mean. As an example you could say that that piece of paper in the drawer actually is a crayon, according to your definition. That way whatever is found in the drawer is “proof” that whatever you claimed was correct – no reality needed.

        2. JohnH

          It’s obvious that MacroDuckie doesn’t give a quack about the welfare of the average American…but if the experience of a sufficient number is that we’re in a recession, then incumbent politicians are probably in BIG trouble, even though incumbent politicians try to convince people to not believe their lying eyes.

          Bhutan is an example of an economic measure that’s actually trying to measure what counts: “The pioneer of the Wellbeing Economy movement was the country of Bhutan, which in seeing the failures of GDP as the sole indicator of development, created a Gross National Happiness index to gauge the wellbeing of its citizens.” https://weall.org/resource/bhutan-gross-national-happiness-index

          OMG!!! the happiness of the citizens…never occurred to MacroDuck…

  2. Econned’oh

    Off topic:
    Kai and Hyundai recall over 250,000 SUVs due to rollover risk. Never drove either.

      1. Econned’oh

        “Barkley Rosser”,
        See above. Thanks for the “input”. Now that issue is clear, we need your assessment.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Econned,

          Maybe you “need” my “assessment,” but, sorry, I have zero information about rollover risk of these automobiles, and unlike some folks around here, I prefer not to make stuff up out of thin air more than necessary.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Dodge is a crappy car. As are nearly every American brand car. Never drove a Dodge. ALL of the time GM, Ford, Dodge, Chevy make incredibly crappy and unsafe cars and never do a recall. They’ve embarrassed our nation for the last 40+ years. Along with Ronald Reagan, one of the earlier signs this nation in many ways had gone to shit.

      Name me ONE model of American brand car worth a damn, and I’ll tell you how you just lied to me and why.

      Kia may eventually get it right. Ford get out of their own way?? Roughly the same day Rudolph Giuliani cuts off his umbilical cord to Orange Mommy trump.

      1. Bruce Hall

        2016 Taurus SHO (3.5L twin turbo) with 31k miles: oil changes, tire rotations, and a set of windshield wipers. Runs on regular gasoline. 0-60 in 5.3 seconds (5.1 if I use premium gasoline). AWD. 26 mpg highway. Can carry 4 suitcases plus soft gear in trunk. 5 passengers. Cost new: $32K (incl. taxes and destination charges). Also no problem getting four sets of golf clubs plus other gear in the trunk.
        https://www.driveandreview.com/3-5-ecoboost-life-expectancy/

        New EV alternative: Chevy Bolt.
        Advantages: can also heat the house one time.

        Yeah, I really want an EV. /s

          1. Bruce Hall

            Thank you.

            Now let’s talk about externalities related to lithium mining, (child) cobalt mining, nickel mining, scrapping of wind turbine blades, dead lithium batteries, and failure to understand the realities of energy production. (Green) Ideology über alles, ja?
            https://www.dw.com/en/toxic-and-radioactive-the-damage-from-mining-rare-elements/a-57148185
            https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cobalt-children-mining-democratic-republic-congo-cbs-news-investigation/
            https://www.popsci.com/energy/lithium-ion-batteries-recycling-fire/
            Oh, but none of those is carbon dioxide (gasp).

            Now let’s talk about affordability.
            https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/electric-cars-are-unaffordable-for-many-americans-biden-is-trying-to-impose-them-anyway/ar-AAYRzkp

            Now let’s talk about unsupported mandates and “gasoline”.
            https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1562503985529233410

            So exactly what are you learning by doing?

          2. AndrewG

            Bruce Hall,

            You only care about (nonwhite) children in the mining sector when it conflicts with your anti-green ideology uber alles mentality. Otherwise, you’re fine with (nonwhite) children getting sick from mines. Or being put in cages by the White House.

            Biden is trying to “impose” EVs by … making them cheaper. I guess that’s fascism for you, right?

            “So exactly what are you learning by doing?”

            Your post is nonsensical, and that was the nonsensical cherry on top.

          3. Moses Herzog

            @ Bruce Hall
            We can’t say “all of your points are bad”. But….. don’t you think, over the long term, over the long arch of time, after the recent regulatory decision by Gavin Newsom out in California, (Newsom thinks 17 states will soon follow) that economies of scale will drastically lower the cost of EV cars, if not externalities, surely in the beans counting way of economics??

          4. Bruce Hall

            Andrew G

            Your appeal to racism is pathetic. An externality is an externality regardless of who is getting impacted. Ironically, it is the liberal push for EVs that is creating the very situations you condemn me for pointing out.

            As to Biden making EVs cheaper through mandates, that’s pure BS. Would you have said the same thing about plasma TVs? How does Biden know if EVs are the “wave of the future” or just a giant screw-up harming the world’s environments and an economic farce? If they are so great, they can succeed on their own without tax credits and even more tax credits to try to persuade people that they make sense when they are obviously overpriced and underperforming.

            You obviously have no faith in the marketplace and the ability of people to choose the most beneficial and economical products… a true Soviet believer. No one had to convince people with incentives to abandon horse drawn carriages in favor of automobiles. When the automobile became obviously better than the alternatives, people purchased them. The diesel bus replaced the electric street car because it offered flexible routes and wasn’t subject to power outages. The airplane replaced trains as the preferred mode of long distance travel because, well, “time is money”.

            Sure, Biden and Newsom and their government buddies can force people into EVs, but that doesn’t make them the better choice either economically or environmentally. Why not force them into clean hydrogen powered cars that use an abundant fuel that is not produced by wasting the earth? Toyota makes them and Toyota makes good products. The hubris of the government officials to pick the “winners” is stunning.

            Moses, an appeal to the wisdom of Gavin Newsom? That’s satire and sarcasm at its best.

            Economies of scale? Not using lithium ion battery technology for the foreseeable future.
            https://www.reuters.com/technology/world-faces-shortage-lithium-electric-vehicle-batteries-2022-01-21/

            Affordable and economical? Not so much.
            https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium
            https://www.benzinga.com/news/22/06/27856091/average-electric-vehicle-price-in-us-rose-22-last-month-as-tesla-ford-gm-charge-more

          5. AndrewG

            Well, I call you a racist because of your open admiration for “white culture”. I think that’s self-explanatory. Only racists think that way.

            The market completely disagrees with you about electric vehicles. Not just in the US, but worldwide. Tesla is struggling to keep up with demand globally. It’s the fastest-growing auto manufacturer by far. Every major manufacturer seems to be embracing electric vehicles. Ironic you calling me a non-believer in markets, since you’re the mercantilist here.

            The externality most relevant here is carbon emissions warming the atmosphere. But you don’t believe in that, science be damned, because it injures your sensibilities.

        1. Moses Herzog

          Professor Chinn, I know you HATE YT video links, Some of that is MY fault, I’m sorry. Can you PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE “do me a solid” and let these Scott Kilmer videos past the blog filter?? Thanks just for pondering my [ begging ] plea. Moses

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlyU6Zxgno0

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxPf7vBwXsQ

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XF0Zm_4PFg

          Do you like battery fires, that start when your car is PARKED or being charged?? Enjoy it you Michigan dope.

        2. Moses Herzog

          For the record, and this is just a general comment separate from my strong disagreement with Bruce Hall. Nearly everything I read or hear says turbo engines are stupid and a waste~~~unless you’re 16 years old and want to be killed by racing your classmates in the late night hours. If you’re a teenager who wants to be suicidal?? By all means go get yourself a turbo engine. If you’re Bruce Hall’s son, it might even save the white guy gene pool from ruination.

          1. Bruce Hall

            Moses, then you certainly wouldn’t want a Tesla because, oooo, it accelerates too fast.

            Don’t be stupid. Turbo engines provide performance in terms of acceleration, power, and mileage which is why V6 turbos have replaced V8 naturally aspirated engines, They are superior. And you can replace one after 150,000 or more miles for less than a battery pack if you really want to keep your vehicle.

            Just because you think a Fiat 500 is the greatest vehicle in the world doesn’t make it so.
            https://www.smartdrivetest.com/truck-driving-school/why-turbocharged-diesel-engines-are-better
            https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a20776954/are-turbocharged-engines-a-fuel-economy-boost-or-a-fuel-economy-bust/
            https://www.automotive-fleet.com/10164678/stellantis-debuts-hurricane-twin-turbo-i-6-engine

  3. JohnH

    “ Inequality has a significant effect on recession dating. Economic growth calculations are typically done at the aggregate level, meaning that some demographic groups or geographic areas can still experience economic contraction even as the broader economy is growing and thus considered to be in an expansion. This data aggregation, coupled with the fact that more and more wealth and income is controlled by a smaller group of people, means that an expansion for the top income-earners can look, in aggregate, like an expansion for the entire economy—even if it isn’t.

    In fact, this is similar to what happened during the Great Recession of 2007–2009. Initially, the bottom 50 percent of the income distribution fared relatively well, propped up by recovery packages and increased use of income support programs and other government transfers. Yet when these programs ended and U.S. policymakers turned toward austerity policies, the bottom 50 percent suffered.”
    https://equitablegrowth.org/factsheet-is-the-u-s-economy-in-a-recession-and-how-does-recession-dating-work/

    Hear that, MacroDuckie…Duckie…Duckie? “ some demographic groups or geographic areas can still experience economic contraction even as the broader economy is growing.” (MacroDuckie tried to con us into believing that the average American couldn’t experience a recession, only economies can be in recession.)

    Now, if economists tried to understand why so many Americans are so glum about the economy, even if it’s not technically in recession, maybe they would discover that a significant portion of the population are in fact in recession right now. And that portion of the population is more likely to vote to throw the bums out.

    Let’s hope that BEA can figure out how to report real median personal income on a quarterly basis. It would address a major gap in our understanding of the economy and, potentially, of the electorate. Changing the focus from the performance of the economy to the welfare of average Americans would be a real, positive change.

    1. Macroduck

      Johnny,

      This is so sad. It’s like you’ve regressed to the making assumptions you made when you first started embarrassing yourself here – you think that because you’ve just learned something, it must be new to everybody. Back then, some of us actually tried to help you. We were naive enough back then to think you were sincere but ignorant. You’ve made it clear you’re merely ignorant.

      Yes, some people do well while others do not. Heck, Paul Simon wrote a song about it, and and unlike you, he makes no claim to economic sophistication:

      https://www.paulsimon.com/track/some-folks-lives-roll-easy-2/

      It’s not news. Nor does it change the fact that recession is a general contraction in economic activity. General.

      You really think that strutting around pretending you’ve scored some big victory is going to impress the big kids? You think finding an article with a point of view is somehow an intellectual coup?

      Poor little fella, you’re sulking because I called you out over your “recession, recession everywhere” nonsense, aren’t you? Get a grip on yourself.

      1. JohnH

        Apparently MacroDuckie…Duckie…Duckie still refuses to acknowledge that some demographic groups or geographic areas can still experience economic contraction even as the broader economy is growing.

        Fortunately, the BEA study proved him wrong…OMG!?! MacroDuckie…Duckie…Duckie wrong? Calamity!!!

        1. pgl

          “Duckie still refuses to acknowledge that some demographic groups or geographic areas can still experience economic comnntraction even as the broader economy is growing.”

          He has never implied anything anything remotely like what you are saying what you imply here. Look worthless piece of trash – every gets you set up pointless straw man arguments like this. I guess you want to claim you are smarter than everyone else but EVERYONE here knows you are both dumb and a liar. You polluted EconomistView in its day with this nonstop garbage. So now you do the same here? You are pathetic.

        2. Macroduck

          Johnny! I just wrote… What’s the use? You’re having a tantrum, and you’re gonna say crazy stuff.

          Is this because you’ve had you “Emperor’s New Clothes” moment? You go on and on about recession, but didn’t have the courage to accept my bet? Now you feel like you’ve been exposed. That’s what’s got you acting like this. Nxt, you’ll holdvyour greath tll your face turns blue.

          1. JohnH

            As I wrote already, I don’t give a hoot about whether GDP growth is +/- 0.3, But I sure love to watch the reaction of economists to a key indicator “gone wrong.” And their reaction to a bad 3Q GDP number…the third straight…will really be quite amusing.

            BTW another GDPNow had another release today, and it’s still tracking lower than their 2Q releases.

            Now what if these GDP-obsessed economists cared half as much about something that really matter to most people–their earnings? I know, I know…not going to happen.

          2. Menzie Chinn Post author

            JohnH: I don’t know what you’re speaking of. GDPNow as of today is 1.6%; How is that “tracking lower” than “2Q” which BEA’s 2nd release indicated was -0.6%, up from -0.9% in the advance (all SAAR).

            I await your clarification with bated breath.

    2. pgl

      Now you have decided to totally misrepresent what Macroduck has said. Ahhh – he is doing a better job of shooting down your intellectual garbage than I have been doing.

      Permit me to give you some advice. When you on the rare occasion make a decent point (after all most economists do realize inequality is a serious issue) try doing it without your usual pointless and dishonest smears of other people.

      1. ltr

        https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=OKMF

        January 30, 2018

        Real Disposable Personal Income per capita and Real Median Weekly Earnings, 1980-2022

        (Indexed to 1980)

        https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=rAbi

        January 15, 2018

        Real Median Weekly Earnings for men and women, * 2000-2022

        * Full time wage and salary workers

        https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=T82W

        January 15, 2018

        Real Median Weekly Earnings for White, Black and Hispanic, * 2000-2022

        * Full time wage and salary workers

      2. Noneconomist

        Befitting an egocentric narcissist to the extreme, JohnH also believes his knowledge of history—any history on pretty much any topic—is unsurpassed. Not difficult to imagine him standing in front of a mirror—full length, of course—while delivering pearls of wisdom to a mythical audience hanging on his every word.

  4. Moses Herzog

    I just saw Susan Rice interview with Ari Melber. And mostly she was there talking about tuition debt forgiveness. But at the very end of the interview Ari asked her a question related to national security and secret documents. And Rice gave a very short answer because she said she wanted to “stay in her lane”. Excuse me!?!?!?!! “Stay in her lane”?? This woman has been a part of some of the most crucial and precarious to human life U.S. national security decisions this country has EVER made, and now that she is WH Domestic Policy Council Director she wants to “stay in her lane”. This would be like if Paul Volcker was asked to be Secretary of HUD after he had been Fed Chair and they asked him about a Fed QE move and he said “Well, I don’t want to go too deep in the weeds on that, I want to stay in my lane”. I mean Hahahaha, that’s like funny in the weirdest kind of way.

    Two things:

    1) In an ideal world where true smarts and ability mattered over popularity and crowd mentality, Susan Rice would have been Biden’s VP

    2) Susan Rice is so humble and classy. When I grow up and become an adult I want to be like her.

    1. pgl

      Smart and humble people are a joy to work with. She is indeed both.

      Now arrogant morons are the worse. Case in point – Princeton Steve.

      Could you imagine a debate between Stevie and Susan Rice? She would destroy the clown.

    2. Barkley Rosser

      Moses,

      I have met her and she is indeed extremely capable. But in this case she was completely correct to provide a short answer. It is not just her “stay8ing in her lane,” but the fact that she is in that lane, for better or worse, means she is not up to date on the latest on those national security matters, even if maybe that is her comparative advantage.

      1. Moses Herzog

        I think your joke is not malicious and done 100% humor. Asians won’t be angry about this type joke if they know your heart./

        For me, that joke is more appropriate than you might guess. Just some of her name, er something. I’m kinda jealous of Kristof on that score. But she’s kind of “Americanized” (which I don’t like ) but she’s beautiful and very sharp mind. Yeah, I’m totally jealous of Kristof. When they do interviews together you can see they totally love each other, and actually it’s nice to see a couple so into each other after a semi-long time. In my mind they “make a great couple”. It’s nice to see.

  5. pgl

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-on-student-loans-biden-rewarding-people-who-want-me-murdered/ar-AA115zfp

    Several things about this weird story. First of all – Marjorie Taylor Greene is UGLY! Secondly – just because someone pranked her by calling the police does not mean her life was in danger. And people who had student loan forgiveness are not the same thing as the terrorists who attacked the Capitol on 1/6/2021. After all – I never had to take out student loans but if someone pulls her stupid gun on her, I might applaud that person. After all she is one UGLY person in so many ways.

    1. Bruce Hall

      You use the term loosely.

      fascism
      făsh′ĭz″əm
      noun
      A system of government marked by centralization of authority under a dictator, a capitalist economy subject to stringent governmental controls, violent suppression of the opposition, and typically a policy of belligerent nationalism and racism.
      – American Heritage Dictionary

      Sounds strangely Bidenesque.
      • mandates/EOs
      • racial preferences https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/12/business/economy/inflation-reduction-act-black-farmers.html
      • CHIPs Act https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/25/politics/chip-manufacturing-biden-executive-order/index.html That would be fascism if Trump had signed such a bill and followed with an EO all in the name of “National Security”.
      • Jailing Jan. 6 protestors in conditions that are unconstitutional for more than a year without trial.
      https://www.newsweek.com/accused-capitol-rioters-could-spend-more-year-jail-before-trial-1656894 (published Dec. 2021)

      1. Macroduck

        There it is, again: “Every accusation an admission”

        Brucey, is “No! You are!” the best you’ve got? So sad.

        1. Macroduck

          Is something bothering the troll choir? More than usual, I mean. There’s Johnny, on the floor kicking and screaming. Brucey is doing no better. They’ve given up the pretense of havng a point to make.

          Is this because the press has begun reporting that those mean old Democrats mght hold on to the House? That gerrymandering and voter suppression may not be enough?

          1. AndrewG

            Could be that Dear Leader really might be headed for indictment. For real this time. Not much they can do but throw a tantrum. Or plot to kidnap Gretchen Whitmer — same thing to them, I guess.

            “Fake news” was always just whatever hurt their feelings. This news is so “fake,” it’s real.

      2. AndrewG

        Oh yes, terrible, terrible Biden. Clearly a fascist.

        But Bruce Hall’s not batting an eyelash about:
        – Trump separating children from their parents and quite literally putting them in cages
        – Trump proposing to ban an entire religious group
        – Trump running campaign ads demonizing Jewish bankers
        – after a rally where people wearing his campaign gear were chanting “the Jews will not replace us”, Trump saying there are “good people on both sides”
        – pressures election officials to cough up fake votes so he can fake win an election; doesn’t even deny it, and is on tape anyway
        – after rioters who he had whipped up physically attack Congress during the electoral certification, carrying zip ties and chanting “hang Mike Pence”, Trump saying to them, “we love you” and calling them “beautiful”
        – Trump constantly praises Vladimir Putin, most recently calling him a “genius”; openly admiring other dictators
        – CPAC, held for the first time outside of the US, hosted by Viktor Orban
        – Trump extremists physically attacking the FBI, plotting the kidnapping of a governor, and threatening law enforcement across the country

        But I guess you have a different perspective, Bruce Hall. Maybe it’s your admiration of “white culture”?

      3. Barkley Rosser

        Bruce,

        Did you bother to check how Biden compared with other presidents in terms of the number of Exectutive Orders he has given? He has been giving them at a rate of 60 per year, just slightly ahead of Trump’s 55. But 14 other presidents have been ahead of him, some of them by multiple times. They include Mr.Small Government Calvin Coolidge, whose annual rare of EOs given was 215, like three and a half times more than Biden’s rate.

        As for your claim that the people Biden has supposedly jailed for the 1/6 protest, aside from the fact that it is the DOJ and not him doing so, you called them “protestors,” but even the article you linked to called them “rioters,” which is more accurate. There were indeed thousands of protestors at the Capitol did not riot, did not invade the building or fight with police. None of those people have been arrested.

    2. Barkley Rosser

      :”facism” eh? Is this where people judge each other by how their faces looks? 🙂

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