US and Euro Area Headline Inflation Compared

Using flash estimates for Euro Area HICP. US inflation m/m , q/q falling:

Figure 1: US m/m annualized CPI headline (black), HICP headline (gray), Euro area (teal). Euro area July is flash estimate. HICP seasonally adjusted using X-13, log transformation. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, EuroStat, via FRED, and author’s calculations.

 

This is true using 3 month changes in the monthly data, as well.

 

Figure 2: US q/q annualized CPI headline (black), HICP headline (gray), Euro area (teal). Euro area July is flash estimate. HICP seasonally adjusted using X-13, log transformation. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, EuroStat, via FRED, and author’s calculations.

Here’s the month-on-month annualized differential between US CPI and EA HICP.

Figure 3: US_Euro area m/m annualized headline differential (black). Euro area July is flash estimate. HICP seasonally adjusted using X-13, log transformation. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, EuroStat, via FRED, and author’s calculations.

 

While headline rates have converged, core differentials would show a different story. Energy is a bigger component of headline in the Euro area. Expect this divergence to continue as long as energy (particularly natural gas) prices remain elevated relative to the US.

92 thoughts on “US and Euro Area Headline Inflation Compared

    1. w d w

      for who?? certainly not the common folks. they will take it in the neck, whether its inflation, or higher interest rates. jobs will die, with people fallowing that

      1. Moses Herzog

        So this is a 3 month time horizon for the Apocalypse, or…….. ? Can you let us know if there will be any demon women with dragon heads, just so we can brace ourselves??

  1. ltr

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/12/opinion/inflation-1980s-recession-biden.html

    August 12, 2022

    Wonking Out: Is 2022 like 1980?
    By Paul Krugman

    It has been a good week on the inflation front. First we had a flat month for the Consumer Price Index — zero inflation in July. Then we saw an actual decline in the Producer Price Index.

    Naturally, there is a lot of pushback against the good news. I’ve been seeing many warnings against believing those who claim that the problem of inflation has been solved. The thing is, I don’t know who is supposed to be making that claim. Every economist I know believes that America still has high underlying inflation. The real question is how hard it will be to get that underlying inflation down — whether we’re going to need an extended slump like the one we went through in the 1980s. And the answer to that question depends a lot on whether you think our current situation resembles that in 1980.

    First, about the good news: One of the most durable and successful concepts in macroeconomics is the distinction between headline inflation and “core” inflation, which excludes highly volatile prices. The traditional calculation of core inflation excludes food and energy; that calculation has been called into question given the strange disruptions and price movements we’ve seen in the era of Covid, but the traditional measure is good enough for today’s newsletter. Here are recent monthly rates of overall and core inflation:

    https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/08/12/opinion/120822krugman_1/120822krugman_1-jumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp

    Good news, qualified.

    Until July, headline rates were more or less consistently running well above core inflation; now, with gasoline prices falling, supply chain problems easing and so on, we’re seeing that difference reverse itself. The result is likely to be several months, at least, of fairly low inflation.

    But, as I said, underlying inflation remains high, at least by the standards of the past 30 or so years. There are many competing estimates of that underlying rate, but by and large they tend to be in the range of 4 percent to 5 percent, compared with a Federal Reserve target of 2 percent inflation.

    So how hard will it be to achieve that target?

    The last time we saw inflation rates this high was at the beginning of the 1980s. Comparisons between data then and now are a bit tricky, because the Bureau of Labor Statistics has changed the way it estimates inflation. But it has produced estimates of the inflation rates it would have reported in the past if it had been using modern methods. If we compare those estimates for 1980 with recent inflation — this time over the past year — you can see that today’s inflation is lower than it was in 1980, but not all that much lower:

    https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/08/12/opinion/krugman120822_5/krugman120822_5-jumbo.png?quality=75&auto=webp

    A return of that ’80s show?

    And getting 1980’s inflation down was a painful process….

    1. pgl

      OK – I finally got around to the topic of the post and this Krugman discussion is excellent:

      ‘underlying inflation remains high, at least by the standards of the past 30 or so years. There are many competing estimates of that underlying rate, but by and large they tend to be in the range of 4 percent to 5 percent, compared with a Federal Reserve target of 2 percent inflation. So how hard will it be to achieve that target?’

      Core inflation is not 9% but yea it is a bit above the old 2% target. But remind me – what is magical about this target? Ten years ago, economists like Lawrence Summer and Brad DeLong were advocating the inflation target be set at 5%. But yea a 2% target is not nearly as bad as the Bruce Hall new gold standard position,

      1. ltr

        “Lawrence Summers and Brad DeLong were advocating the inflation target be set at 5%.”

        They failed to anticipate and understand the decline in productivity growth to come. Indeed, productivity in manufacturing would be flat soon after recovery from 2007-2008:

        https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=SDiv

        January 15, 2018

        Real Average Hourly Earnings * and Labor Productivity in Manufacturing, 1988-2022

        * Production & nonsupervisory workers and Output per hour

        (Indexed to 1988)

        https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=SGYx

        January 15, 2018

        Real Average Hourly Earnings * and Labor Productivity in Manufacturing, 2000-2022

        * Production & nonsupervisory workers and Output per hour

        (Indexed to 2000)

      2. Bruce Hall

        Euro Area Headline Inflation

        From Reuters, August 19:

        German producer prices jumped at the fastest pace on record in July, underscoring the gloomy outlook for Europe’s largest economy, which is stuck in a stranglehold of soaring costs and weakening growth due to the Ukraine war. The German economy became more dependent on China in the first half of 2022, with direct investment and its trade deficit reaching new heights, according to research seen by Reuters.

        London’s transport network ground to a halt as train and bus workers held strikes over pay and conditions, the latest in a summer of labor market disputes as double-digit inflation eats into wages. Britain’s financial watchdog has told firms offering ‘buy now, pay later’ loans to spell out the cost of late repayments to customers as the cost-of-living crisis intensifies.

        Meanwhile Biden’s Anti-Anti Inflation Act pushes the US closer to the European failed strategy of “alternative” electrification/fossil fuel divestment. I can just visualize all of those New York City day traders pedaling their bicycles around an energy-starved city. But it will be one way to keep warm in the winter.

  2. Macroduck

    I note in earlier comments that credit growth in China slowed in July. More troubling news from the port city of Yiwu:

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3188557/coronavirus-lockdown-chinas-export-showroom-yiwu-clouds

    Yep, another Covid lockdown. The article claims “Some two thirds of the world’s Christmas products are estimated to be made in Yiwu…” which sounds likely the local government using a novel definition of “Christmas products” but still…

    Meanwhile, on this side of the Pacific, news from the stock market and corner offices is that advertising budgets are being cut. Advertising is a cost with no direct revenue, so ad budgets tend to be cut first whenever business confidence falters.

    If China is having trouble shipping Christmas and U.S. firms get skittish about ordering Christmas (round 2 of orders – first round of orders typically starts in June and may have started earlier this year) then we could be engineering a weak Q4.

    1. Moses Herzog

      I should tell you Macroduck, because I know you were wondering this just now, all of the “Fat Buddha” toys that are wearing a Santa suit, do indeed come out of Yiwu, not Mexico City.

    2. GREGORY BOTT

      Yeah, but oversupply may make up the difference. Advertising is being cut because the pandemic spending programs are over. Nothing More or less.

      1. Moses Herzog

        I think maybe the “lost in translation” deal here is Christmas themed products, right?? I’m honestly just guessing, So unless you’re some young girl in a college dorm a a newly started out family, you’re just gonna drag out your Christmas decorations you been using the last 20 years right?? I mean I get it you were probably joking, but I still felt it was worth saying.

  3. ltr

    https://www.nytimes.com/1981/04/19/books/a-novel-of-indias-coming-of-age.html

    April 19, 1981

    A NOVEL OF INDIA’S COMING OF AGE
    By Clark Blaise

    MIDNIGHT’S CHILDREN
    By Salman Rushdie

    THE literary map of India is about to be redrawn. The familiar outline -E.M. Forster’s outline essentially -will always be there, because India will always offer the dualities essential for the Forsterian vision: the open sewer and the whispering glade, Mother Theresa and the Taj Mahal. Serious English-language novelists from India (often called Indo-Anglians), or those from abroad who use Indian material, have steered a steady course between these two vast, mutually obliterating realities; hence the vivid patches of local color provided by the timeless South India of R.K. Narayan’s novels and the cool pastels added by the later fiction of Anita Desai. The Indian novels of Paul Scott and Ruth Jhabvala also fall comfortably between those two poles. For a long time it has seemed that novels from India write their own blurbs: poised, witty, delicate, sparkling.

    What this fiction has been missing is a different kind of ambition, something just a little coarse, a hunger to swallow India whole and spit it out. It needed a touch of Saul Bellow’s Augie March brashness, Bombay rather than Chicago-born, and going at things in its own special Bombay way. Now, in ”Midnight’s Children,” Salman Rushdie has realized that ambition.

    If I am to do more than describe my pleasure in this book, if I am to summarize and interpret, I would have to start by saying that ”Midnight’s Children” is about the narrator’s growing up in Bombay between 1947 and 1977 (and about the 32 years of his grandparents’ and parents’ lives before that). It is also a novel of India’s growing up; from its special, gifted infancy to its very ordinary, drained adulthood. It is a record of betrayal and corruption, the loss of ideals, culminating with ”The Widow’s” Emergency rule. As a growing-up novel with allegorical dimensions, it will remind readers of ”Augie March” and maybe of Gunter Grass’s ”The Tin Drum,” Laurence Sterne’s ”Tristram Shandy,” and Celine’s ”Death on the Installment Plan” as well as the less-portentous portions of V.S. Naipaul. But it would be a disservice to Salman Rushdie’s very original genius to dwell on literary analogues and ancestors. This is a book to accept on its own terms, and an author to welcome into world company.

    Clark Blaise teaches at Skidmore College.

  4. pgl

    https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-clinton-aide-implies-trump-kompromat-macron-useful-putin-2022-8

    The FBI seized “info re: President of France” during the raid on Mar-a-Lago.
    Jennifer Palmieri, formerly an aide to Hillary Clinton, referred to it as “kompromat” in a tweet.
    Palmieri also implied in the tweet that the information could be useful to Vladimir Putin.

    The Kompromat on Macron issue is a hot political issue in Europe. Macron is also one of the leaders who supports the US and the rest of NATO in opposing Putin’s war crimes in Ukraine. Leave it to a slime like Trump to profit by selling out Macron to Putin.

    1. Ivan

      You have to ask what Trumps plans were for those stolen papers. Top secrets about nuclear weapons included. Was he going to give them to his body Vlad, send them in a love letter to Kim, or sell them to Xi? Were they retained to blackmail Biden if it ever comes to a criminal conviction (pardon me or I will release….). Sold to the highest bidder. Used to impress guest at Mar-A-Largo? Just asking questions.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      I shall follow this up with the second English language report (the first I just put up on Econospeak in much greater detail, although crucial details remain unclear) that about last Tuesday, Russian central bank Head Elvira Naibiullina left office. This is all over various substantial Russian language sources, but not reported in English language media until I just did so a few minutes ago on Econospeak.

      It is unclear if she resigned or was pushed, but rumors have it she is being set up to be made scapegoat for current Russian economic problems, which do indeed look to be a lot more serious than some had been reporting, especially all the pro-Putin trolls. It may be that declining crude oil prices have really pushed things to the edge. I note the serious irony that reportedly (and this was in western media) Naibiullina had tried to resign in March, but was ordered to stay by Putin. If he now goes after her in any serious way it will be very unfair, although Putin being unfair is hardly the worst thing he has done.

      She managed by use of lots of capital controls and some other shenanigans to pull the value of the Russian ruble back up from a collapse it experienced initially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 that led to the imposition of economic and financial sanctions on Russia. Given that among those sanctions was the freezing or Russian central bank assets in many places abroad, this was definitely a challenge. The offiical rate is still holding at 63 per USD, still better than it was on FEb. 24, around 70 then. But, reportedly the black market rate has now collapsed to around 200 per USD, and things are really getting bad.

      I wish her and her husband, who ceased being Rector of the HIgher Economic School in Moscow last year, all the best. This now looks to be a dangerous situation for them.

      This may prove to be a false rumor, in which case Moses Herzog can repeatedly regale you all with accounts of me passing on such false information. But this is in fact all over pretty substantial Russian language sources I shall not name. If it is a false rumor, it is a big one getting very widely reported and discussed.

      1. Steven Kopits

        Don’t see confirmation on Google search. Certainly possible, though.

        Economic problems may be serious, but if the Russians have one comparative advantage, it’s in enduring suffering and privation. World class in that. Someone once said that ‘the Bear is never as strong as it looks and never as weak as it looks.’ That’s stuck with me.

        As for ruble strength: If you can’t import anything and you export oceans of oil and gas, wouldn’t you have a giant current account surplus and upward pressure on the home currency, the ruble, in this case?

        1. Moses Herzog

          BlueStatesResidentKopits’ comment, the cherry on top of Rosser’s poop pie. Hahahahaahhaaha!!!! OMG, it can’t be real. I had too much melatonin last night and I’m only dreaming this unrealistically satirical….. satire on top of satire. Kopits’ “certainly possible” on Rosser’s Elvira Nabiullina comments is like listening to Roger Stone yank it to Alex Jones’ wife’s phone pics!!!! Hahahahaha!!! Oh, it’s to much!!! My gut is killing me from the laughter!!!!!

    2. Barkley Rosser

      Hah! This is a comment on something I posted here maybe an hour and a half ago that has not appeared here yet. Moses will have fun with it.

      So, I am now being told that on all the sites in Russia, and there were many, where the report that Naibiullina is out as Russian central bank Head, this report has been removed. It is now being claimed that this report was due to “foreign agents” and that she remains in office. We shall see, but indeed it looks now that this report is probably a big rumor, or maybe she was briefly out but then got put back in again. Super unclear. Apparently one strong defender she has, who for now supposedly remains in favor and powerful, is the Head of Russia’s largest bank, the old-state-owned Sperbank, German Gref. This is definitely a plenty murky business.

      1. Moses Herzog

        Often times it’s just fun to let people embarrass themselves. Self-proclaimed “experts on Russia” and otherwise.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Moses,

          I am not embarrassed, Mose boy. I noted upfront this might be a rumor. And this is something nobody else in the English language media has reported on at all.

          tt is a serious business that this was all over multiple websites in Russia, with lots of major figures commenting on this matter for several days. Now it has been forcibly shut down with this bizarre claim that all these reports on various websites was all just due to “foreign agents.”

          It may well be that we shall not be able to determine which it was: Ukrainians messing with Russian cyberspace to roil Russian markets with this rumor (with in fact Russian markets highly volative this past week), or was there indeed an effort to remove Naibiullina that got reversed?

          One observation is that indeed the Russian economy is doing worse in various ways than was being reported, as this NY Times report shows.. So there were grounds for the markets there to be volatile, given that this real new information was certainly leaking out, irrespective of anything going on with Naibiullina.

          Another is that apparently she has long been facing a lot of criticism from various people in Russia. Inflation is way up. Efforts to combat it have involved much higher interest rates, and, wow, GDP is seriously down. Hey! It cannot be due to the”special operation”! And, of course,here in the US we have lots of people criticizing the central bank for bad things going on (see Moses Herzog for one, whining constantly about Jay Powell). So, indeed, there may well have been an effort to dump her and make her the scapegoat for the worsening situation, but then her defenders won the fight and decided that to stabilized markets it was needed to pretend that there was no effort, all reports to the contrary due to FOREIGN AGENTS!

          So, there is a story here, even if it is about a fake event of some sort that a lot of people got worked up about, a story almost nobody in the US knows about, but some here may find of interest, even though Moses stupidly thinks otherwise.

          1. Moses Herzog

            Barkley Rosser is the leader in fake news. Barkley Rosser was the first to upload garbage info in English. And Barkley Rosser has zero shame over posting garbage information. Thanks for the clarification.

            One can only imagine how this man grades essay exams. Let’s try not to think about it. OK, we can imagine just for satire comedy……..

            Student essay titled: “Leon Panetta visited DC Pedo Pizzeria” Professor’s notes in red ink “Congrats, you are the first one of my students to report this. A+…… Come to my office during visit hours, we’ll discuss how Crest toothpaste company is brainwashing America with fluoride. This is an exciting day for JMU, we’re going to see if we can get you an internship at FOX Business News working underneath Charles Gasparino. It will be heady times for you.”

          2. Barkley Rosser

            Moses,

            I guess I am not very tolerant of your total lying scheiss right now. I made it clear in my first post on this matter that it may be a rumor. Of course, as I forecast you would, you are lyng that I put it up as a definite fact.

            You are truly an utterly worthless scumbag. You make even nauseating cruds like CoRev and Econned look good.

          3. Barkley Rosser

            BTW, Moses, while I think you are pretty badly behaved, there is still one person here worse than you. That is the blatant supporter of war crimes, our very own JohnH.

          4. JohnH

            So my opposition to pointless and futile wars, along with all the propaganda used to justify them, suddenly translates into my being a supporter of war crimes?

            Wow!

            You might notice that Amnesty International has just revealed Ukrainian war crimes…and they earlier pointed out Russian ones. Interestingly enough, the propagandists condemn Amnesty for publicizing the Ukrainian ones but not for condemning the Russian ones.

            The best way to stop war crimes to is stop pointless and futile wars…which means getting serious about negotiations….something that the US seems viscerally opposed to.

          5. Barkley Rosser

            JohnH,

            As usual you are lying, even more than Moses.

            The US does not and has not opposed negotiations. In fact, negotiations have happened on some matters, such as the deal that is now allowing grain exports out of Ukraine. But on the matter of ending the war, Putin id demanding essentially that Ukraine surrender to his invasion and accept his demands.

            You occasionally mention that you do not support his invasion. But then you post one-sided defenses of his invasion and criticize anybody suggesting that there should be any resistance to it. The invasion has involved massive ongoing war crimes, and what AI has claimed does not amount to that at all, sorry. You are still by far the most immoral person on this site.

          6. Barkley Rosser

            BTW, JohnH, it is bs that Amnesty International has documented “war crimes” by Ukraine, and they have come under lots of justified criticism for this bizarre report.

            So, Russia invades Ukraine without any serious provocation. After bombing the daylights out of the residential sections of urban areas they then invade various cities. They then invade the residential portions of those cities. The Ukrainians have the nerve to defend those areas and fight against the Russian efforts to occupy them. This is what the AI report teports, nothing more. They do not report, for example, any use by the Ukrainians of having their soldiers hide behind civilians so that when the Russians attack the Uktainian military in these areas they unnecessarily kill civilians. The Russians are just doing that on their own. Nor do they accuse the Ukrainians of bombing or attacking their own schools or hospitals or train stateions or theaters full of civilians. No, it is the Russians doing those things.

            All the Ukrainians are doing is resisting the Russian efforts to conquer these civilian areas and fighting them in those civilian areas. Most observers think this is a ridiculous thing to complain about and call a “war crime.” Apparently AI thinks the Ukrainians should just surrender any residdiental area if the Russians invade it, which is clearly the view of JohnH, our utterly immoral commentator on all this.

    3. JohnH

      Interesting economic news:

      Russian prices dropped 0.39% in July; US prices were unchanged.
      YOY Russian inflation 15.1%; US inflation 8.5%. (Note: Russian inflation was already 6.36% a year ago)
      https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-cpi-idAFR4N2YG025

      Russian GDP declined 4% in 2Q after 3.5% increase in Q1.
      US GDP declined 0.9% in [email protected] after 1.6% decline in Q1.
      https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-economy-declines-4-yy-q2-after-35-yy-increase-q1-econ-ministry-2022-07-27/

      It certainly does not look like the Russian economy imploded after the imposition of sanctions, as the neo-Joe McCarthys, Cold Warriors, neocons and other propagandists had predicted.

      Furthermore, judging from first hand reports, which are as scarce as hens’ teeth in the corporate media, Russians are hardly suffering, contrary to what the propagandists had predicted.
      https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/08/05/report-on-a-three-week-visit-to-st-petersburg-july-2022/ (Doctorow speaks Russian and is an expert on Russia.)
      https://rall.com/2022/08/10/in-actual-russia-no-sign-of-sanctions

      If the US wants to stop embarrassing itself in pointless and futile wars, then the public needs to insist that foreign policy elites stop believing their own propaganda and start dealing in reality. But, as we saw in Iraq, reality is the last thing Washington wants…if that happened, who would fund those humongous “defense” budgets?

      1. pgl

        Oh wow – the Russia economic woes did not kill all of its citizens. Putin is the best leader EVER. I would ask if you realize how pathetic you sound but it is clear you have decided to be the Klown of the Century!

        1. JohnH

          Oh wow – the US’ economic woes did not kill all of its citizens. Biden is the best leader EVER. I would ask if you realize how pathetic you sound but it is clear you have decided to be the Klown of the Century!

          Of course, pgl, a true partisan hack, would say that. In fact, most of the neocons have become Democrats.

          1. pgl

            You are indeed one sad little boy. Maybe one day you will grow up but no one here really expects that.

      2. Barkley Rosser

        JohnH,

        Oh how surprising that you provide us with stuff from two blatantly pro-Russia propagandists. Doctorow has Russia handing out passports in Kharkiv, a city they do not control, and moving on Odesa! They are winning, and of course everything is great with the economy too!!!

        As for Ted Rail, the guy works for RT, the total Russian propaganda outfit. He also has Russia winning because,, wow, the Ukrainians are not conquering Crimea yet, even though they have just hit a major airbase there. And the Germans entered USSR through Ukraine in WW II, among other factoids (yes, Germany did invade Ukraine, but they also entered USSR in some other locations as well).

        Great sources there, JohnH. Are you also in the pay of RT?

          1. Moses Herzog

            Some of the most poignant and accurate political commentary this nation (and probably other nations) have had is through regular editorial cartoons and even more non-traditional cartoons like South Park. In fact between South Park and George Will, I think I’d take South Park. And I sure as hell know I’d take South Park over farcical dogs like Peggy Noonan. Ever heard of Art Spiegelman?? Robert Crumb?? Harvey Pekar?? Mike Judge –“Silicon Valley”??

            Why don’t you quit being so enamored with basketball players who got their Uni degree off the HP printer at GangRape U in Waco. You might learn a couple things. Who’s up next for your cheapshots, Badiucao??
            https://www.badiucao.com/artshop

        1. JohnH

          Barkley: I provide you with “ stuff from two blatantly pro-Russia propagandists?” What was it you learned at Wisconsin? McCarthyism?

          Yves Smith wrote back in April that “Lambert and I, and many readers, agree that Ukraine has prompted the worst informational environment ever.” That’s saying something, considering how bad it was during the Iraq War and the War on Dissent, when lists of non-compliant professors were being drawn up.

          But I’ll let Rall explain why he contributes to RT and Sputnik: “ It doesn’t matter how entertaining or relevant or smart or funny you are. Communists, socialists, anarchists, left libertarians, deep-green environmentalists and populist progressives need not apply as opinion columnists, radio or television commentators. There isn’t even space in mainstream media for pundits who align with establishment progressives like Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, whose ideas are indistinguishable from old-school liberal Democrats like Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern.”
          https://scheerpost.com/2022/03/16/ted-rall-why-i-work-for-sputnik/

          I’d encourage Barkley to read the whole article, and ask himself why so much news is simply not fit to print.

          Sifting and winnowing by which alone the truth shall be known, RIP. “ Today, it’s all “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. ”

      3. Barkley Rosser

        Oh, and JohnH, unlike in the US, core inflation in Russia is higher than headline inflation on an annualized rate, hitting 18.4% in July. On top of that, food prices are rising especially rapidly, despite whatever Doctorow or Rail might be claiming.

        1. JohnH

          Rosser claims, “ food prices are rising especially rapidly,.” Naturally, a source free claim. So we can assume that Rosser is just parroting some corporate media site that parrots unnamed sources in the intelligence community.

          According to the Reuters link I provided, food prices in Russia dropped 1.53% in July.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            BTW, JohnH, if the economy is so great, why was there just a massive rumor that the Russian central bank Head was being fired on numerous Russian websites that was then suddenly removed from all of them with a claim this was all just due to “foreign agents”? If things are so great, why would anybody care?

            And to Moses Herzog, it may be that Elvira Naibiullina remains Head of the Russian central bank, and it might even be that her job was not endangered, but it is not atl “fake news” that there were all these reports and discussion about it all over many Russian websites last week for several days.

          2. pgl

            Source free does not necessarily make the claim false. But then you often give us source free claims that turn out to be erroneous. Then again you are well known for providing “sources” fully vetted by Putin.

      4. Noneconomist

        Al Jazerra: “Putin’s war sets Russian Economy back 4 years in single quarter” 8/12
        NYT “Russia’s economy contracts sharply as war and sanctions take hold”. 8/12
        Reuters: “Russian economy shrinks 4% in second quarter as sanctions weigh” 8/12
        “The economy is plunging into recession…gross domestic product could fall by more than 12% this year after growth of 4% in 2021 in what would be the biggest contraction since the mid 1990’s”. Reuters 8/12
        Yes, JH, the Russian economy is humming right along.

        1. Moses Herzog

          I’ll tell you what will get your attention—negative headlines in Pravda, and they are there. When state controlled news starts “telling on itself” that is the very very very very beginning inklings of when Putin better start watching his back, and better be varying his daily schedule and leaving some mystery on his appointment travel. Because he’s making enemies quicker than he thinks. People do NOT like losing money, especially those who climbed a mountain so they could break bread with guys like Putin. Once they aren’t making money from the bastard, he’s like used Kleenex.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            Moses,

            Which Pravda? There are two of them now, quite different.

            But I bet Russia Expert You did not know that, did you?

          2. Moses Herzog

            @ Barkley Junior
            I never claimed to be an expert on Russia. But you’re making me wonder recently if I shouldn’t attempt to make false claim to being an expert on Russia, since I am depicting events much closer to reality than the man professing to be “the expert on Russia”.

            Does labeling myself an “expert” on Russia come with a stipend, or just a false sense of my own self-importance??

          3. Barkley Rosser

            Moses,

            Oh really? Want to tell us again about all those Russian troops in Southeast Romania?

        1. JohnH

          McCarthyism is alive and well: “Pro-Putin poodle, useful stooges.”

          As Rall writes, “ Putin’s puppet, a Kremlin propagandist, and a useful idiot.” If this were the 18th century, I’d demand satisfaction from the cur.

          Useful idiot, of course, is an insult popularized by fascists during McCarthyism. It is still used by the extreme right.”

          1. Barkley Rosser

            JohnH,

            At the time of McCarthy, although he was supporting North Korea’a invasion of South Korea, Stalin was for once not killing and jailing lots of dissidents in his own country, much less in those of neighboring nations.

            However, right now, Putin has without any justification whatsoever, despite what the liars Doctorow and Rail say (do you really believe the Russians are “moving on Odesa” as Doctorow claims?), has invaded a neighbor where his troops have killed many thousands of innocent civilians, many of them Russian speakers he supposedly is doing this for, as well as abducting thousands , many of whom are reportedly being tortured and often also killed. This is far worse than what Stalin was up to in the early 1950s.

            So, immoral supporter of ongoing war crimes, you can take your charges of “McCarthyism” and shove it. These guys are immoral scum as are you for your defenses of these ongoing horrors. You might as well be bombing a maternity hospital yourself.

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ Macroduck
      I’ll skip my usual added editorial comment and let you guess what I might have said:
      “Is the government confident that gas supply will not be disrupted?
      Yes. The current situation facing the UK is not a question of security of gas supply, but of high gas prices set by international markets.

      Unlike other countries in Europe, the UK is in no way dependent on Russian gas supply. Our single largest source of gas is from the UK Continental Shelf and the vast majority of imports come from reliable suppliers such as Norway.

      There are no gas pipelines directly linking the UK with Russia and imports from Russia made up less than 4% of total UK gas supply in 2021.

      Great Britain’s highly diverse supply sources include pipelines from the UK and Norway continental shelf, interconnectors with the continent, and 3 liquified natural gas (LNG) terminals, providing Britain with one of the largest LNG import infrastructures in Europe. Germany, for example, has no LNG import terminals.”
      https://www.gov.uk/government/news/russia-ukraine-and-uk-energy-factsheet

      “How much oil does the UK get from Russia?

      The Russian Federation is the third biggest oil producer in the world behind the United States and Saudi Arabia.

      It’s producing around 10.7 million barrels a day and UK imports of Russian oil totalled about £4bn last year, according to Bloomberg data.

      The Digest of United Kingdom Energy Statistics 2020 (DUKES) reveals Russian oil imports made up around eight per cent of UK demand in total.

      The accounted for 18 per cent of diesel, five per cent of jet fuel and one per cent of gas oil such as red diesel used for machinery and off-road vehicles.”

      https://inews.co.uk/news/world/oil-how-much-uk-get-russia-britain-supplies-ban-prices-explained-1506876

      Now the Macroduck Question of the Day: Would you rather be in the UK around Summer 2023, or in the EU??

      1. Ulenspiegel

        “Great Britain’s highly diverse supply sources include pipelines from the UK and Norway continental shelf, interconnectors with the continent, and 3 liquified natural gas (LNG) terminals, providing Britain with one of the largest LNG import infrastructures in Europe. Germany, for example, has no LNG import terminals.”

        This is a correct observation. However, the NG issues were in 2021 and still are in the UK worse than in Germany. So why are the consumers under higher stress in the UK with around 40% domestic NG production? Could it be that you miss something? 🙂

  5. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-08-13/China-sets-world-record-in-steady-high-magnetic-field-research-1cshD8ycIX6/index.html

    August 13, 2022

    China sets world record in steady high magnetic field research

    Chinese scientists on Friday produced a steady field of 45.22 Tesla, the highest of its kind in the world, according to Hefei Institutes of Physical Science (HFIPS) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences. *

    The achievement occurred at the hybrid magnet of the Steady High Magnetic Field Facility (SHMFF) in the city of Hefei, Anhui Province, breaking the previous world record of 45 Tesla, created in 1999 by a hybrid magnet at the National High Magnetic Field Laboratory of the United States.

    Such a success represents an important milestone in the development of magnetic technology in China and the world. Stronger magnetic fields enable scientists to see the internal structures of materials more clearly, helping people understand the world better and develop new technologies, said Kuang Guangli, academic director of the HFIPS High Magnetic Field Laboratory, where SHMFF is based.

    SHMFF’s scientific team constructed the hybrid magnet in 2016, which generated a central magnetic field of 40 Tesla at the time, making it the second 40-Tesla level magnet in the world.

    “To achieve a higher magnetic field, we innovated with the structure of the magnet, and developed new materials,” said Kuang during an on-site verification process conducted by seven academicians. “The Bitter disc manufacturing process was also optimized.”

    SHMFF, open to scientists worldwide, has operated more than 500,000 machine hours since it began operation, providing over 170 scientific and educational institutions at home and abroad with the experimental conditions for cutting-edge research in multiple disciplines, including physics, chemistry, materials, the life sciences and engineering.

    * https://phys.org/news/2022-08-china-world-strongest-steady-magnetic.html

    1. ltr

      The accomplishment here can be understood by considering establishing a steady magnetic current that is about 1 million times as strong as the Earth’s magnetic current. This steady current in a magnet the size of a purse coin. Also, we need notice that the collection of Chinese magnets above Tesla 40 and now 45 is and will be available for international use.

  6. pgl

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/harris-calls-out-irresponsible-rhetoric-on-fbi-s-trump-search/ar-AA10D6F7?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=c4f67b7474eb4b1081a55badc361f88c

    “I will say, as a former prosecutor, but as a citizen of our nation, any attacks on law enforcement are completely unacceptable,” Harris told reporters aboard Air Force Two on Friday. “And any so-called leader who engages in rhetoric that in any way suggests that law enforcement should be exposed to that kind of danger is irresponsible and can result in dangerous activities.”

    Look I get the President’s desire to keep politics and the DOJ separate but the damage the MAGA Republicans are doing to the nation right is very sick and extremely dangerous. So forgive me but I want to applaud the Vice President for calling out the sick hypocrits on the Republican side of the Senate and the House.

  7. pgl

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-mocks-ex-fbi-agent-after-selling-t-shirts-comments/ar-AA10D6hF?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=05d1884fd40544f8a483b15a7af70143

    Why does Marjorie Taylor Greene want to defund the FBI? Oh yea – she wants the next 1/6/2021 domestic terrorism to succeed. Hey it might be fun watching her run from her own mob the way Josh Hawley did. I doubt her little pistol is going to do any good against a mob with military assault weapons.

    1. Gregory Bott

      Greene is a con. Just like Hawley………..just like Gosar. Follow their true heritages and the Trump con that it follows.

  8. pgl

    RUDY is SO CUTE when he pretends to be MACHO MACHO MAN!

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/rudy-giuliani-says-trump-will-raid-every-one-of-biden-s-houses-if-the-former-president-wins-the-2024-presidential-election/ar-AA10D73O?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=2e160b865ce148898ed94d9de1ced43f

    Giuliani, a former New York city mayor and longtime Trump loyalist, told The New York Post that Trump could use the FBI to retaliate against Biden if he were to head back to the Oval Office. “Breaking into the home of a former president is a political act — particularly since you’re breaking precedent. All of a sudden, you’re the first president of the United States who introduced the banana-republic process of prosecuting your predecessor. We’ve avoided it for 240 years. Trump didn’t do it to Hillary. Ford didn’t do it,” he told the newspaper.

    Wait, wait RUDY thinks Hillary Clinton was President? OK! Now could someone ask RUDY what crimes Lyndon Johnson committed? We know Nixon committed treason just like Trump did but Nixon gave Ford the White House. Biden beat RUDY’s boy at the ballot box. So WTF has gotten into RUDY’s head? Oh yea too many shots of cognac.

  9. pgl

    https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/achieving-11-growth-rate-in-next-decade-possible-if-india-capitalises-on-demography-manufacturing-exports-patra/article65765440.ece

    “Currently, India is the third largest economy in the world in PPP terms, with a share of 7% of global GDP after China and the U.S.,” says Michael Debabrata Patra.
    If India achieves a growth rate of 11% into the next decade, it would become the second largest economy in the world not by 2048 as projected earlier, but by 2031, said Michael Debabrata Patra, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Saturday.

    I get why people mock Trump, Cochrane, etc. for suggesting the US can achieve 4% growth or more long-term as they are just spewing nice sounding BS. But it is not implausible that a nation with such modest income per capita could see a doubling of its real GDP in a decade. I’m curious which sectors of their economy do they think they play catch up with.

  10. pgl

    Trump has hired someone named Alina Habba as his defense attorney. She is like most Trump aides – saying a lot of really loud but dumb things. She appears way over her head so I went looking for her background. This bio is the best I found:

    https://theancestory.com/alina-habba/

    Yep – her competencies are not exactly up to what this investigation is about. I guess real defense attorneys have all decided that Trump is too damaged for them to touch.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      Including all the stuff that was planted there by the FBI or aides of his who loaded it all up behind his back.

      1. Moses Herzog

        Well, the Orange Abomination had 2 lawyers there and about 15 people from the white trash brigade showed up, so this “civil war” stuff is “super scary”. This is why conservatives make fun of liberals. They had another guy on the weekend “wasn’t targeting anyone in Congress”/ No, “no way he was a MAGA illiterate”, these rocket science DC police have told us) who rammed a DC barricade near the Capitol, his car caught on fire, he shoots five shots in the air and then commits suicide~~all while Congress is on summer recess and no one’s home. I mean these guys are “Rambo-like” assassin squads. “Frightening”. Meanwhile some FBI hierarchy gets on TV his voice all quivery. Folks, all you have to do is use your brain. Most of these white trash MAGA are the same intelligence as the Muslim terrorist who shoots himself in his thigh with his Kalashnikov or blows himself up before he arrives at the teenage mall. They have a brain the size of a squirrel’s. Just don’t sit there in your office like Pelosi while the kookjobs come in droves, while donald trump sits watching going “See, I knew Pelosi was too dumb to call in the National Guard”.

  11. pgl

    Trump minions have come up with a rather dishonest twist – anyone that decided to hold this traitor to account will be accused of having sex with someone named Christine Fang. Yes she is Chinese. Horror! She might even be a SPY:

    https://www.the-sun.com/news/1934292/chinese-honey-trap-spy-fang-fang/

    Swalwell, who has been married since 2016, has not been accused of having a sexual relationship with Fang, nor of any wrongdoing. Swalwell is one of the youngest members of the House and someone who Fang reportedly helped raise funding for. His office told The Sun: “Rep. Swalwell, long ago, provided information about this person – whom he met more than eight years ago, and whom he hasn’t seen in nearly six years – to the FBI. To protect information that might be classified, he will not participate in your story.”

    Ms. Fang strikes me as a lovely person. Did she have a relationship with a Midwest mayor? Maybe. Now Trump probably has cheated on his wives with all sorts of women with ties to Putin but that is OK with his fan boys. But let’s make Swalwell out to be a traitor as he once posed for a picture of these young lady. Did I say she was Chinese? Horror!

  12. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-08-13/Chinese-mainland-records-704-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1csnyYqyuHe/index.html

    August 13, 2022

    Chinese mainland records 704 new confirmed COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 704 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Friday, with 646 attributed to local transmissions and 58 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Saturday.

    A total of 1,440 asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Friday, and 8,064 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    The cumulative number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland is 234,217, with the death toll from COVID-19 standing at 5,226.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-08-13/Chinese-mainland-records-704-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1csnyYqyuHe/img/af08fa1166e3479f83daaf355bed2830/af08fa1166e3479f83daaf355bed2830.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-08-12/Chinese-mainland-records-704-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1cqI94CDYha/img/e2688ce4329248c1aac3f5a9e59a0051/e2688ce4329248c1aac3f5a9e59a0051.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-08-13/Chinese-mainland-records-704-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1csnyYqyuHe/img/112a48768e904e328a7a11338be2ac87/112a48768e904e328a7a11338be2ac87.jpeg

    1. Ivan

      As expected zero Covid had zero chance against Omicron BA5. The big question is what chance does the Chinese economy have against zero Covid policies? A drama that has yet to unfold.

  13. ltr

    Isn’t it fun to read tea leaves about noise?

    [ Selected economic planners who read tea leaves and listened to noise seriously about a year ago, began increasing food and energy stores from then on. The Chinese took the noise and tea leaves as warnings that could only be gained in attending to. Energy supplies and transmission capability have been remarkably secured, agricultural productivity is being continually increased. Also, given ample warning, water conservation projects are being worked on right now all through the country.

    I read prominent American economists dismissing recent and current Chinese infrastructure investment, but the gains have already been and promise to yet be profound. ]

    1. ltr

      http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202208/11/WS62f45eb2a310fd2b29e7197b.html

      August 11, 2022

      More water projects lead to jobs, stable economy
      By HOU LIQIANG

      Increased endeavors by the Ministry of Water Resources to promote the development of water conservancy have helped to stabilize the national economy and boost employment during the first seven months of this year, Vice-Minister of Water Resources Liu Weiping said on Wednesday.

      Between January and July, 567.5 billion yuan ($84 billion) was invested in water conservancy projects, a 71.4 percent increase on last year, Liu told a news conference, adding that the investment “has contributed significantly to stabilizing investment and boosting employment”.

      Over 1.6 million people were employed in the construction of these projects, including over 1.2 million migrant workers from rural China.

      As of the end of July, there were 31,800 water conservancy projects under construction across the country, with a total planned investment of 1.7 trillion yuan, he said.

      The vice-minister stressed that the ministry has intensified efforts to promote agricultural irrigation and rural water supply projects, on the basis that investment in these projects not only creates jobs and helps stabilize the economy, but also bolsters national food security and boosts rural development.

      Altogether 46.6 billion yuan was invested in developing rural water supply projects, more than double the amount invested during the same 7 month period last year, he said, adding that the investments will benefit about 25.3 million rural residents….

  14. pgl

    So who is the mole in Maro Lago?

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mary-trump-speculates-that-jared-kushner-could-be-the-mar-a-lago-mole-after-reports-say-an-informant-close-to-trump-guided-fbi-agents-to-the-documents/ar-AA10DioK?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=0c399d606d0d416f9750d639a8f374d8

    Mary Trump said she thinks the person who may have given the FBI information about documents held at Mar-a-Lago by her uncle, former President Donald Trump, could be Jared Kushner.

    Gotta love the intrigue within this mob family!

    1. Barkley Rosser

      A more likely source speculate on is maybe a secret service agent. Given wording from DOJ in their opposition to releasing the affidavit, it looks like there may be more than one witness involved.

  15. pgl

    Oil prices have moderated but will they continue to decline? This story gives a couple of reasons why oil prices may continue to decline:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/oil-refiners-in-asia-s-economic-powerhouses-aren-t-duccsnapping-up-extra-crude-even-with-prices-below-100-a-barrel-as-inflation-bites/ar-AA10Dlmn?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1b15255368394bb693309bf84bf2ed68

    (1) Asian demand for oil seems to be declining;
    (2) Saudi production may be increasing.

    Freshman students in economics will recognize this as basic applications of the demand = supply model. But watch our Usual Suspects try making the easy more complicated with their pet words, which mean nothing.

  16. Steven Kopits

    From the BLS:

    Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output decreased 2.1 percent and hours worked increased 2.6 percent.

    Thoughts on this, Menzie? I am hard pressed to understand how this could happen, although it is clearly necessary to square rising employment with a decline in output.

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm

    1. pgl

      Wow Gilligan – I noted earlier than when employment is rising strongly but real GDP is not, then by definition productivity, which is defined as real GDP/employment must decline. I guess one can call oneself a consultant without passing 1st grade arithmetic. Then again GDI has been growing unlike GDP. Maybe you missed all of thise posts form our host on this measurement issue. DUH!

    2. pgl

      Right there in the BLS release in plain simple English:

      Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked by all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.

  17. ltr

    As expected zero Covid had zero chance against…

    [ This is a dangerously incorrect assertion. Different coronavirus policies are in place for different reasons in different countries, but data can be used in assessing the health-effectiveness of policies. Prejudicially distorting the health effectiveness of a policy can only be harmful. ]

  18. ltr

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=lS7s

    January 4, 2018

    Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity, * 1948-2022

    * Output per hour of all persons

    (Percent change)

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=lS8k

    January 4, 2018

    Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity, * 1948-2022

    * Output per hour of all persons

    (Indexed to 1948)

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=m2mx

    January 30, 2018

    Manufacturing Productivity, * 1988-2022

    * Output per hour of all persons

    (Percent change)

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=m2mB

    January 30, 2018

    Manufacturing Productivity, * 1988-2022

    * Output per hour of all persons

    (Indexed to 1988)

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