One Year Ahead Expected Inflation

Firm expectations nudge up, but household/consumer expectations are down. Survey of Professional Forecasters forecasts as of early July, out on Friday.

Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), mean from Coibion-Gorodnichenko firm expectations survey [light blue squares]. Michigan July observation is preliminary. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional ForecastersNY FedCleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko


146 thoughts on “One Year Ahead Expected Inflation

    1. AndrewG

      Buick is top? Jesus H. Christ, what planet are we on?

      In WWII a lot of inflation occurred with quality degradation. Helps get around price caps, but also is probably unavoidable due to capacity constraints. I don’t want to know what shoes were like in 1943.

      1. Moses Herzog

        Scotty Kilmer, a mechanic with a YT channel (who I pretty much inherently trust when it comes to cars) will tell you the exact same thing my father told me, from about 1980 to the year he died, 2012. There isn’t a car made in America (with a very few few few exceptions) that is worth a crap. Get you a Honda, a Toyota, and maybe a Subaru (if you are willing to pay a premium for safety for your family)~~~the rest of them you can pretty much burn down at the city dump.

        1. AndrewG

          “the rest of them you can pretty much burn down at the city dump”

          They do that all on their own sometimes.

          What about Tesla?

          1. Moses Herzog


            People have assumed the head of Tesla sold a huge chunk of Tesla stock because of the Twitter shareholder lawsuit. I suspect there may be reasons more directly related to Tesla itself. The CEO of Tesla has two major problems, one is he keeps having manufacturing/production issues. And his #2 problem is he can’t seem to keep his promises. When you invest in the equity of a corporation, trust should be something at the forefront of your mind. Nevermind buying a car, and then 6 years later they are out of production and you can’t find repair parts. Think back to the Delorean or even Tucker. Sometimes things that look like they are going to be the next great thing are hot air. Then you got a cultural issue of how many American men want to drive a car whose dashboard looks like a kitchen countertop?? Call me an old school “dinosaur”—-but not me friend.

        2. Moses Herzog

          “And of course there is J.D. Power & Associates, who reportedly charge hundreds of thousands of dollars to car makers just for access to their survey results and then charge another big-time fee for the right to mention their awards in ads. Additionally, they provide a separate, equally pricey service where they help car companies make improvements that should result in higher ratings.

          Some biggie at J.D. Power stands by the company’s assertion that the survey and consulting sides of the business are separate entities.

          ‘Core to our success is that our clients believe that the research is entirely independent,’ he said. ‘If they felt that you could buy a better score, then the score would become worthless.’ ”

          Commenter AndrewG (who I surmise to be a pretty sharp fellow) is welcome to believe whoever he wants. A lifetime mechanic (I’m referring to Scotty Kilmer) whose never been paid a dime for his automobile opinions) and Consumer Reports (whose opinions on cars often correlate closely with Mr. Kilmer’s thoughts).

          or……………. a company that in essence gets paid hundreds of thousands (millions??) for its ratings.

      2. Moses Herzog

        BTW, even Nissan cars are a “POS” now. Since roughly 2000 all Nissan makes is shit. You’d do better to get a Datsun that some widow grandma never drove than a 2022 Nissan.

        1. Barkley Rosser


          What does your Kilmer pal have to say about Hyundais? The Koreans have sure been trying hard to catch up and match the Japanese for a long time, and it does seem the Hyundais have moved up in quality a lot. They were once a joke.

          1. Moses Herzog

            Well, I’m going to make a confession here on my own stupidity. It wasn’t terribly long ago I was a huge fan if Kias, and was putting a lot of thought in having the Kia Soul or the Kia Forte as the next car I might own. And then I found out this, firstly from mechanic Kilmer:


            I’m semi ashamed I even recommended Kias on this blog not terribly long ago. Any company that intentionally takes shortcuts on engine quality I would avoid like the plague. It spells out bad company culture. I wouldn’t touch ANY Kia or Hyundai as of right now.

            My current recommends:

            Subaru (if you’re willing to pay a premium for family safety, you’re in essence getting a Toyota “under the hood”)

  1. pgl

    Oh my – it has been a while since we heard from Village Idiot Stephen Moore. Maybe Fox and Friends likes his bloviating stupidity more than they like Princeton Steve’s bloviating stupidity:

    In this episode of extreme absurdity Moore declares that the Inflation Reduction Act will lead to hyperinflation as Moore clearly notes he has no effing clue how to measure fiscal impact but he can make up BS to say a modest fiscal stimulus is larger than the fiscal stimulus during WWII.

    And I bet the morons who watch Faux News ate this nonsense up.

    1. AndrewG

      I don’t actually think he belongs to any village in particular. More of an itinerant idiot.

      1. Moses Herzog

        hey, watch it, I am a former semi-truck driver. This is getting personal (hahaha, just joking)

  2. pgl

    forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink)

    I may have posted a comment on this before reading your post. Expected inflation over next year only 3.3% and not 4.2%. The need for tight money right now looks weaker by the day.

    1. James

      Moses – sounded interesting on your recommendation – but reading the review – not so much “They portray a Democratic party led by Joe Biden as, in equal measure, inept and out of touch.” – Lately I’ve been thinking the GOP has burned up all the MAGA hate and people are starting to see the responsible Dem governance is paying off in terms of infrastructure spending and now doing something about climate change and drug costs.
      Of course – here in WI – the WIGOP is doubling down on Tim “I’ll take a look at decertifying the 2020 election” Michels- but I think majority are seeing Evers fixing roads and funding local schools. lowest WI unemployment rate in years, and, hey!, lowered your property tax bill last year – and thinking yeah – let’s keep Evers and protect our right to make personal healthcare choices.

      1. Moses Herzog

        It’s not a very good assumption to think that because one political party is utter madness, that means the other party is competent. You’re just gonna have to trust me on that one since you don’t want to read reality.

        You’ve got a Democrat VP now, who thinks she’s scoring popularity points running around crying for a female NBA player who got busted for marijuana and got 9 years. The same VP who worked at keeping Blacks behind bars for half or more of their mortal lives for the same marijuana offense or other minor crimes/unpaid court costs when she was DA and AG out in Cali. A woman who can’t even remember if she’s gone to the southern border we share with Mexico is going to control our military if Biden croaks??

        Let’s say your right arm is severed off at the elbow, so all you got is a stump at your right elbow, and your left hand is severed off at the wrist and you just got a stump at the left wrist. You’re telling me you think you can win a boxing match fighting with your left arm??~~”you’re gonna win”~~because the right arm is worse you’re gonna win a boxing match fighting with your left arm?? Good luck.

        1. pgl

          I get you do not like the VP. OK – but this?

          “a female NBA player who got busted for marijuana and got 9 years.”.

          Britney Griner is a political prisoner and not a criminal. The whole Russian system is a joke to stroke Putin’s ego. Free Britney.

          1. Moses Herzog

            And because she’s a sports celebrity and claims minority status, she’ll be traded for someone who will cause much more damage to the world than would be done by letting her sit in prison for being an idiot while traveling. I just respectfully disagree with you on this.

            I will give you this though, that if a “person” obstructed a subpoena with the intention of espionage—they deserve worse than nine years in a federal prison.

          2. pgl

            “Moses Herzog
            August 12, 2022 at 2:19 pm
            And because she’s a sports celebrity and claims minority status”

            All athletes deserve better. I have long supported athletes right to express their views without some Orange Abmonition ruining their careers. Or do you agree that Lebron should just shut up and dribble?

            Britney was arrested by Putin’s pigs because she is a basketball star both here and in Russia where she has to work because the WNBA does not pay all that well. Or are you OK with that too?

          3. Moses Herzog

            Lebron wasn’t traveling in Russia with marijuana in his luggage was he?? Sometimes in life there’s a penalty for being stupid. And sometimes people have to pay that penalty. Even sports celebrities. And even those saying “I should get treated as if I am a grade school child, because I’m a minority”. This kind of reminds me of some facets of “feminism”~~they say they want to be treated as equals out of the left side of their mouth, then out of the right side of their mouth cry “foul!!!” because they didn’t get treated like a child. They need to decide what way they want it, and then get back to us.

            Let’s take your example of Lebron—do you think everyone would be getting a violin out for Lebron right now if he had been in Russia with marijuana in his bag?? Or do you think a large part of the public and TV talking heads would be asking “Just HOW DUMB is Lebron, right before a proxy war with the west in Ukraine breaks out, travels through Russian with contraband??” ‘Cuz I’m inclined to think we’d have even LESS violin playing than Griner is getting. More talk, more website headlines, but less violin.

          4. pgl

            “”Moses Herzog
            August 12, 2022 at 3:22 pm
            Lebron wasn’t traveling in Russia with marijuana in his luggage was he?? Sometimes in life there’s a penalty for being stupid.

            Lebron is paid well. And if you knew a damn thing about basketball, there is something called pain management. Look dude – you can sit there and not give a damn about woman athletes all you want since you have never played the game anyway.

            The only people who have not joined me on freeing Britney are either Putin pigs or people who think blacks should shut up and dribble.

          5. Moses Herzog

            Here’s how Uncle Moses crazy brain works. Let’s imagine for a moment Uncle Moses is a Black lesbian athlete that makes $221K per year. I take marijuana “for pain” (hilarious, but let’s take it at face value for argument’s sake). I know I’m going to travel in Russia where the relationship with America is very bad, AAAAAAAND MARIJUANA IS ILLEGAL. Do you think I could afford to trash that marijuana in the toilet, on a $221K annual salary, BEFORE I go to the airport. or……??

            Rocket science…. it’s all deep deep rocket science when you are “a poor disadvantaged”, “boohoo!!! boohoo!!! boohoohoo!!!!!” minority, isn’t it?? That 1 foot jump shot with the ball of marijuana to the toilet was just “too much”…… “because of the pain”.

          6. Moses Herzog

            And before we start in with the “it wasn’t marijuana, it was THC oil”, or “it was THC gummies”. The principle is the same, so let’s not be childlike for once pgl.

          7. Barkley Rosser

            Apparently US State Dept is negotiating with Russians to get Britney out and also Paul Whelan, who is in Russian prison on trumped up charges of espionage. The person who is not getting negotiated for is Mark Foley, a teacher, who got busted for the same thing Britney sis, pot he is taking for medical reasons. Very unclear why he is being left to rot in jail there with no help to get out.

          8. Moses Herzog

            @ Professor Rosser
            His sister was swinging the bat for Foley hard on PBSNewsHour, and I assume other media outlets. Foley has 3 problems: He’s not Black, he’s not lesbian, he’s not a celebrity. And never mind the “ick” and grossness attached of being an educator, I mean eeeeeeeeeewwwww!!! That’s like being a booger wiped off on the chair armrest.

        2. Barkley Rosser


          “read reality”? No, you are telling people to read a book, not reality.

          I know nothing about this book, but it came out before Biden got this latest bill through Congress, which is a considerable achievement, to go along with several others he has managed since getting into office, even if not many have been talking about them.

          We know you have a totally sick attitude about Harris, truly disgusting. But maybe now you like Pelosi at least.

          1. Moses Herzog

            No, I strongly dislike Pelosi. Have you been tested by professionals for any learning disabilities?? The type of learning disability that after someone had made their feeling clear about a topic 10,000 times it still didn’t register for you??

          2. Barkley Rosser


            You were strongly defending Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, but then so were a lot of GOPs who also do not like her.

          3. Moses Herzog

            I was neutral on the topic of Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan. Do you even know how to read?? Honestly?? How did you do on the reading portion of ITBS as a child?? ‘Cuz I’m guessing you were in the bottom 5% of the nation.

      2. AndrewG

        Governors remain very popular overall – probably because of the tight job market. I bet they don’t get any blame for inflation (which is actually pretty reasonable). What’s interesting is how GOP governors up for reelection are underperforming. I would guess it’s mostly about abortion.

        I sure hope you’re right about the MAGA fever breaking, but I’m not holding my breath. Political violence seems to be the new normal – and has been almost normalized by leading Republicans, who don’t bother to speak out.

    2. Macroduck

      I’m probably going to regret this –

      Since there is no end of political antics in comments here, and with mid-term elections only about three months away, what the heck, let’s start handicapping this horse race.

      We have a brand new gerrymander to deal with this year, so metrics of the prior ten years may be of limited use. To help clear that up, we have bold analysis from 538, which finds 6 additional Democratic-leaning seats and 6 fewer highly competitive seats as a result of rdistricting, and that Republicans gained the advantage from redistricting. ??? Very helpful, Nate.

      Having noted that old metrics may not be informative, in 2018 an 8.6% popular vote advantage gave Democrats a 36-seat House majority. In 2020, a 3.1% popular vote advantage gave Democrats a 9-seat House majority.

      The closest we can come to a popular vote estimate for 2022 House contests is generic candidate polling. So far in August, including all generic House-ballot polls tallied by 538, Democrats have an average 1.9% advantage. Using higher quality polls (538’s B+ and better generic poll results), Democrats have a 5.1% advantage. That 1.9% advantage, based on the prior gerrymander, looks like Kevin McCarthy as speaker (if Republicans will have him). The 5.1% advantage looks like Nancy Pelosi (unless she steps aside for Adam Schiff*). — Ugh. I haven’t written anything more useful than 538 did.

      There has been a good bit of ink spilled over the implications of Biden’s weak approval rating for this year’s mid-term elections. (Yeah, yeah, I know – Biden’s numbers are climbing.) After the 2020 election, there was lots of ink spilled over the fact that Biden performed very well personally, but seemed to have had no coattails in House races. These two stories don’t fit together very well.

      The reality is that the gap between presidential approval and the peformance of the president’s party in Congressional elections is quite variable. Popular vote tallies are better approximations of House seat tallies, after the fact, than presidential approval. So we probably oughtta put more weight on generic ballot polling than on Biden’s approval numbers before the fact. There was, on average, more than one generic ballot poll per day in July and the pace appears to be picking up so far in August.

      *Apparently, House Speakers now have to come from California.

      1. CoRev

        MD, gerrymandered???? Why are you ignoring the change in census data that saw more population growth in conservative states? The US population has voted with its feet for years, and even more so recently.

        1. pgl

          “Why are you ignoring the change in census data that saw more population growth in conservative states?”

          This is a stupid statement even for you. Gerrymandering involves redrawing district lines WITHIN a state not ACROSS states.

          Then again your Republican masters might be cooking up something new where right wingers in Staten Island can vote for Dr. Oz. I wouldn’t put this past Mitch McConnell.

          “The US population has voted with its feet for years”. BTW if you are voting in a state different from where you live – you have committed a crime. Have fun in prison.

          1. Moses Herzog

            I have at least two guesses of what CoRev might have meant by that last quote, but CoRev is so stupid it’s incredibly hard to guess the “logic” his mind would run with.

          2. CoRev

            Ole if he’s writing he’s lying doesn’t even understand the ramifications of population changes as shown in the 1 year census. Moses and he are so dumb to ignore those ramifications or it could just be deep, deep denial. BOTH is what I’m betting on.

        1. Moses Herzog

          I should apologize, as I read this cached link of the NYT story it appears the Indian paper reworded it and much of the syntax and grammar is absolutely horrid. But I did find this survey of Asian voters which is still useful and actually has correct English (I’m mentioning that because the bad syntax on the Indian paper link, not because I expected it not to be solid English)

          I have to say I was very perplexed and kind of took affront at them saying that some Asians voted Republican because Republicans’ promises on schools. If most Asian parents send their kids to public schools (do they not??) why would they side with the Republican party?!?!?!?! The Republican party all across this nation “robs from Peter to pay Paul” when they defund public schools to syphon off money for private schools. Now unless most Asians send their kids to private schools, it seems incredibly dumb to me, that Asians would vote for the party that robs funds from the very schools they are sending their children to. But hey, my mind works “funny” I guess…… seemingly……

  3. ltr

    August 11, 2022

    Chinese mainland records 700 new confirmed COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 700 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, with 614 attributed to local transmissions and 86 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Thursday.

    A total of 1,466 asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Wednesday, and 6,263 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    The cumulative number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland is 232,809, with the death toll from COVID-19 standing at 5,226.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    1. JohnH

      “Prof. Jeffrey Sachs says he is “pretty convinced [COVID-19] came out of US lab biotechnology” and warns that there is dangerous virus research taking place without public oversight.”

      Sachs is an extremely credible voice on this matter. “ He has also served as the chair of the COVID-19 commission for leading medical journal the Lancet. ”

      Unfortunately, the corporate media have shunned this story, as often happens with most anything having to do with “defense” secrets.

      The Chinese are wise to aggressively suppress the spread of COVID, even at the cost of temporarily reducing economic growth.

      1. pgl

        Still peddling Putin’s lies we see. I guess you enjoy it when Ukrainian women are raped and their children murdered by your Kremlin overlords.

      2. pgl

        JohnH presents this little thesis of his as both reliable science and something every is ignoring. Two seconds on Google:

        ‘The theory that SARS-CoV-2 may have originated in a lab was considered a debunked conspiracy theory, but some experts are revisiting it amid calls for a new, more thorough investigation. Paul Thacker explains the dramatic U turn and the role of contemporary science journalism

        For most of 2020, the notion that SARS-CoV-2 may have originated in a lab in Wuhan, China, was treated as a thoroughly debunked conspiracy theory. Only conservative news media sympathetic to President Donald Trump and a few lonely reports dared suggest otherwise. But that all changed in the early months of 2021, and today most outlets across the political spectrum agree: the “lab leak” scenario deserves serious investigation.’

        I could care less if the friends of an economist think this little thesis was good science. A lot of scientists did reject the “debunked conspiracy theory”. But it does seem that the investigation is not over. Hey Johnny boy – be careful not to fall off your soap box.

        1. JohnH

          “ Statement by The Lancet COVID-19 Commission – June 22, 2021

          The Lancet COVID-19 Commission will carefully scrutinize the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in advance of its final report, with the overriding aim of recommending policies to prevent and contain future emerging infectious disease outbreaks. The Commission’s technical work will be conducted by independent experts who were not themselves directly involved in US-China research activities that are under scrutiny. Dr. Peter Daszak has recused himself from the Commission’s work on the origins of the virus.

          The Commission urges all scientists who were involved in the US-China research to explain fully and transparently the nature of their work. In the meantime, the Commission will tap global experts in biosafety and other fields to help assess the relevant hypotheses on the origins of SARS-CoV-2, and to recommend ways to prevent and contain future outbreaks, whether from naturally occurring zoonotic events or research-related activities.

          Sachs addresses the hollow assertion that there is nothing to the bio weapons lab origins of COVID: “ there was a lot of research underway in the United States and China on taking SARS-like viruses, manipulating them in the laboratory, and creating potentially far more dangerous viruses. And the particular virus that causes COVID-19, called SARS-Cov-2, is notable because it has a piece of its genetic makeup that makes the virus more dangerous. And that piece of the genome is called the “furin cleavage site.” Now, what’s interesting, and concerning if I may say so, is that the research that was underway very actively and being promoted, was to insert furin cleavage sites into SARS-like viruses to see what would happen. Oops! ”

          Personally, I’ll take Sachs’ word on this, because he headed a commission that actually studied the origins of the virus. Those pushing the standard narrative are “denying the alternative hypothesis without looking closely at it. That’s the basic point.”

          Man, for a bunch of economists, who supposedly support science, it seems that this comment section is infested by a bunch of rubes who will believe whatever narrative the elites decide to peddle.

          1. pgl

            “The Lancet COVID-19 Commission will carefully scrutinize the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in advance of its final report, with the overriding aim of recommending policies to prevent and contain future emerging infectious disease outbreaks. The Commission’s technical work will be conducted by independent experts who were not themselves directly involved in US-China research activities that are under scrutiny.”

            Most people would read this as a sensible statement that a fair investigation will be conducted. Only a lying troll would reach the bogus conclusion that this virus had to be the evil wok of some US lab. And yet that is what you said. Then again – we have all gotten used to your habit of blatant lying.

          2. JohnH

            So pgl is charging that Sachs, after having seen the results of the investigation, is “a lying troll.” Wow!

      3. Moses Herzog

        Did you want to share with us Jeffrey Sachs’ science degrees and science credentials??~~~not social science, like science-science credentials.

        1. JihnH

          Would you care to share the credentials of the virologists and other scientists who actually did the work? Sachs relied on their expertise to inform himself and draw conclusion together with other commissioners.

          What possible motive could a highly respected and credentialed person like Sachs have for suddenly veering off into the world of false narratives? False narratives are what is propagated by intelligence services and their friends in the corporate media. And a significant part of their job is to suppress anything but the official narrative.

          1. JohnH

            Sachs does not have the credentials or expertise to conduct the detailed investigation…but he does have the credentials to preside over the investigation and summarise and report on the conclusions that the experts came to.

            Sachs did not reach these conclusions in isolation, as Moses implies. He had plenty of experts that he relied on to reach the conclusion that COVID probably came from a US bio weapons lab.

          2. pgl

            August 12, 2022 at 4:07 pm
            So pgl is charging that Sachs, after having seen the results of the investigation, is “a lying troll.” Wow!”

            Just because you are a lying troll does not necessarily mean Sach is. You need to grow up but we know you will not.

        2. JohnH

          Would you care to share the credentials of the virologists and other scientists who actually did the work? Sachs relied on their expertise to inform himself and draw conclusion together with other commissioners.

          What possible motive could a highly respected and credentialed person like Sachs have for suddenly veering off into the world of false narratives? False narratives are what is propagated by intelligence services and their friends in the corporate media. And a significant part of their job is to suppress anything but the official narrative and to destroy anyone who questions it

          1. pgl

            Sachs has written a lot of crazy stuff. Me thinks he is desperate for attention. But he is not nearly as bad as you are.

          2. Moses Herzog

            Why does anyone say outlandish and absurdist things?? The same reason Barkley Rosser does, to get attention, and sometimes with the purpose of a future book in mind or hosting kookball shows like Alex Jones does. It’s “Roswell 101”. He’s getting older, there’s no financial crisis to say self-evident things about, he’s at an age he has zero to contribute to the academic literature. So what’s left for Sachs?? Grab-bag for the latest nutjob theories and see how long you can hold on to semi-celebrity.

          3. JohnH

            Jeffrey Sachs is just an attention seeker? So am I to believe that Lancet and it’s COVID commission are nothing but tabloid news.

            Moses, you really have gone off the deep end? What makes you so certain that the US government is not engaged in a coverup? Governments do lie—repeatedly. You do know this, or are you really that naive?

          4. Moses Herzog

            @ JohnH
            It’s nothing personal, I just think you watched Terry Gilliam’s “12 Monkeys” too many times, that’s all.

            Any outfit (including Lancet) can make mistakes. Sometimes they choose guys for name recognition I’m sure, and if you look at many people on that same Lancet commission, indeed they are not qualified to join in on such work. I doubt Lancet bargained for Sachs going off the train rails like that. But I don’t feel sorry for Lancet either, they need to think about the related qualifications for such a commission.

            I’d trust Menzie Chinn wholeheartedly to make the U.S. fiscal budget plan, give me a 3-year economics forecast for the USA, and do regressions and OLS and even DGSE mathematical matrices from here to Kingdom Come. But I would not ask Professor Chinn to play cornerback for the Las Vegas Raiders. This is in essence what Lancet has done with Sachs, and the “split” receiver just blew by Sachs like he was standing still.

          5. Barkley Rosser


            You just cannot refrain from lying about me, can you?

            On this particular matter, I was one of those who when everybody back in 2020 was bleating that it could not possibly be from a lab because Trump said it was pointed out that it had not at all been clearly shown it was not from a lab and there was some serious evidence it might be, although not a US one, and also that it might be from the other virology lab in Wuhan near the market that got not much attention.

            Then indeed after Trump was out of office, US intel and others came around to my view, which was indeed publicized in WaPo by the super well informed David Ignatius, that more study was needed on this matter. This Lancet commission, led bizarrely by the poorly credentialed Jeffrey Sachs, came out with its claims following all this in mid-2021.

            But indeed there have now been several important articles in leading journals, including Science, that have provided very strong evidence that it came from animals in the market in Wuhan, even though it is still the case that which animals has not been clearly identified. But I have accepted these studies as moving the needle over to something close to the 99% range that indeed the zoonotic theory is correct and the lab theory not, with the idea that it was a US lab always much less likely than one of the two virology labs in Wuhan, even though Moses continues to berate me for having previously argued we needed more study at a time when indeed the evidence was not in for the zoonotic theory and it was being supported for political reasons, including here by Moses and others..

            Sachs just looks pathetic in all this. They are out of date and missed the boat, whatever the credentials of those he had on his commission.

      4. pgl

        “Two major events are probably responsible for the media’s change in tune. First, Trump was no longer president. Because Trump had said that the virus could have come from a Wuhan lab, Daszak and others used him as a convenient foil to attack their critics. But the framing of the lab leak hypothesis as a partisan issue was harder to sustain after Trump left the White House. Second, after months of negotiation the Chinese government finally allowed the World Health Organization to come to Wuhan and investigate the pandemic’s origin. But in January 2021 WHO, which included Daszak on the team, returned with no evidence that the virus had arisen through natural spill-over. More worryingly, members were allowed only a few hours of supervised access to the Wuhan Institute of Virology.”

        It would make a difference to some of us whether this came from a Wuhan lab v. a US lab. But of course JohnH has to hate his own nation so blame it on America regardless of the facts. Huh – JohnH reminds me of Rand Paul!

        1. JohnH

          Pgl forgets that the US has a history of developing weapons that can threaten life as we know…nuclear weapons for example, which were developed in extreme secrecy. Who knows what they’re developing now? Weapons that target specific ethnic genomes like Chinese?

          But pgl is of the opinion that the US government and the defense/intelligence community does nothing nefarious. The only thing that is certain is that the public will be the last to know. And if Sachs is right the the scientific community is strangely uninterested in thoroughly investigating the matter, red lights should be flashing everywhere.

          As I said, China is wise to be very aggressive in suppressing diseases.

          1. pgl

            “nuclear weapons for example, which were developed in extreme secrecy”

            So you are applauding Trump for taking those top secret files to Maro Lago? Of course you are because you work for Putin who is trying to broker a deal to buy them for Trump.

          2. pgl

            Hitler was also developing the atomic bomb. I bet you wished he would have succeeded before we did as you love war criminals like him and Putin.

          3. Noneconomist

            Only an extremely egocentric narcissist would suggest anybody on this blog forgetting or not knowing who has developed life threatening weapons.
            Your problem—repeated continually—is a refusal to admit who now prefers using them. In fact, if had a dollar for every time you discussed Putin’s “alleged” atrocities and malicious persecutions, I’d have enough for a free week in Vegas, all expenses paid.
            And only in your own shuttered mind, do posters here not understand—or are even aware of —attempts to cover up government misdeeds and failures.
            Given your current mission to elevate China’s responses to the pandemic, few will be surprised when you also insist on elevating Mao’s humanitarian history with questions over who really was harmed during the Cultural Revolution. In your case, make that “allegedly harmed”.
            Please continue with your “Man of La Mancha” sing along and, in your own mind, keep on running where the brave dare not go.

      5. Ulenspiegel

        “Sachs is an extremely credible voice on this matter. “ He has also served as the chair of the COVID-19 commission for leading medical journal the Lancet. ”

        And he has published in good journals on this topic? Last top papers on this topic come to the opposite conclusion: The lab thesis is not supported by hard data.

        1. pgl

          And then there is the issue – which lab. JohnH cannot be bothered that a few people have pointed to Wuhan as his little soap box parade requires it be some US lab in Ukraine which justifies Putin’s invasion. Look Sachs has written some good economics but no – he is not THE expert here. Not even close.

          1. Olaf Kunert

            If you take the personal/expert opinion of a real expert like Drosten, then it was already in 2020 the most likely version that the virus was developed in the Chinese fur industry and the Wuhan wet market was only the catalyst.

          2. Moses Herzog

            Any links Olaf?? Specifically to “Drosten’s” thoughts, who I suspect no one here has ever heard of.

          3. Barkley Rosser


            I think you are way off here. Drosten was a prominent critic of the idea that it came out of a lab. Ironically, earlier this year there were reports that Drosten had actually participated in suppressing reports that it might have come from a lab. I think you have the wrong guy in mind.

  4. Macroduck

    “This just in: Faux News has learned that Mark Meadows, on orders from Donald Trump, hired Shahram Poursafi to assassinate John Bolton. Trump had grown suspicious that Bolton was the rat who told the FBI about a cache of secret government documents held at Mar-a-Lago. Trump is known to have been suspicious of Bolton’s mustache.”

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ MacroDuck
      These things start to get at me mentally if I don’t try to find the humor in them. I think Letterman saved my teenage years and was probably more useful to me than the counselor I saw in my late teens, But, I’ve never been a Bill Maher fan, but I promise you his most recent monologue is worth seeing. Just look on his Youtube channel for his 3 most recent uploads and one of them will be the monologue. Some of it made me laugh pretty good.

  5. ltr

    January 30, 2018

    Manufacturing Productivity, * 2000-2022

    * Output per hour of all persons

    (Indexed to 2000)

    January 30, 2018

    Manufacturing Productivity, * 1988-2022

    * Output per hour of all persons

    (Indexed to 1988)

    [ Quarter to quarter data are revised and revisions can be substantial, but there has been a slowing of productivity growth through the last 10 years and the slowing is important to understand. ]

  6. Moses Herzog

    Mary Daly said, (my paraphrase) this could be a “head fake” right now, but until the next two major data releases come out (inflation and unemployment before the next meeting) she is leaning to a 50bps move, rather than the 75bps move.

  7. pgl

    Ricky Shiffer was the Trump fanboy who tried to murder FBI agents and he was of course part of the terrorist group on 1/6/2021 who tried to murder members of Congress. MAGA:

    The man who authorities say attempted to breach security at an Ohio FBI office Thursday morning may have been posting messages to former President Donald Trump’s Truth Social site, even as he was engaged in the attempted incursion. The man, who was shot and killed after a standoff that lasted much of the day, was identified to the Associated Press and others as Ricky Shiffer. Law enforcement officials said he was believed to have been present at the U.S. Capitol riot on Jan. 6 last year. A USA TODAY review of online postings by an account in the name “Ricky Shiffer” shows the account had recently posted angry reactions to news of the FBI raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Florida home.

    1. Moses Herzog

      There’s a “surprise”.

      Was his secret MAGA agent code name “CoRev”?? or “Sammy restaurant failure guy”.

  8. ltr

    August 11, 2022

    Finally, Some Good News on Inflation
    By Paul Krugman

    This is not the end of inflation. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

    On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported something we haven’t seen since the depths of the pandemic recession: a month without inflation. That is, the average price of the goods and services consumers buy was no higher (actually slightly lower) in July than it was in June.

    Before I get to what the latest inflation numbers mean, two notes on reactions to the report.

    First, there is absolutely no reason to question the numbers. There were many advance indications that this report, and probably the next few reports, would show a sharp drop in inflation. In fact, I wrote about that last week. It’s not just falling gasoline prices; business surveys point to declining inflation and supply chain problems are easing. Zero was a somewhat lower number than most observers expected, but not wildly so.

    Second, the enraged reaction of Republicans to the report came as something of a surprise, at least to me — not that it happened, but the form their outrage took. I expected them to accuse the Biden administration of cooking the books. Instead, most of the flailing seemed to involve a failure to understand the difference between monthly and annual numbers.

    When President Biden declared, accurately, that we had zero inflation in July, many on the right accused him of lying, because prices in July 2022 were 8.5 percent higher than they were in July 2021. Do they really not understand the difference? To be fair, sloppy business reporting may have contributed to their confusion — I saw many headlines to the effect that “inflation was 8.5 percent in July.” But the more fundamental issue, surely, is that it’s difficult to get people to understand something when their sloganeering depends on their not understanding it.

    OK, but what about the substantive implications of the Big Zero?

    Unfortunately, one month of zero inflation doesn’t mean that the inflation problem is solved. Economists have long known that you get a much better read on underlying inflation if you strip out highly volatile prices — normally food and energy, but there are a variety of measures of core inflation, and all of them are still unacceptably high. That’s a clear indication that the economy is running too hot. The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to cool things down, and nothing in Wednesday’s report should or will induce the Fed to change course….

    1. pgl

      “When President Biden declared, accurately, that we had zero inflation in July, many on the right accused him of lying, because prices in July 2022 were 8.5 percent higher than they were in July 2021. Do they really not understand the difference? To be fair, sloppy business reporting may have contributed to their confusion”

      Yea – the press was all over the maps. But not Bruce Hall! He dutifully said whatever Mitch McConnell told him to say.

  9. pgl

    The Trump minions have been arguing that the search warrant on Maro Lago was not justified unless Trump took documents related to nuclear weapons. Yea I get they ignore all of his various crimes but let’s run with this pathetic narrowing of the reasons to investigate Trump:

    Classified documents relating to nuclear weapons were among the items FBI agents sought in a search of former president Donald Trump’s Florida residence on Monday, according to people familiar with the investigation.

    OOOPS! I guess the minions will blame Hillary Clinton and Hunter Biden for this.

    1. Anonymous

      the garland raid does not pass the herring test.

      yeah yeah nulcear secret

      i still have a few in my head 39 years later

      1. Macroduck

        It’s not your place to decide what does or does not rise to the level of justifying a warrant. You’re nobody. A judge was convinced the warrant was justfied.

        Trump appointed the judge who issues the warrant, so I guess Trump is behind the conspiracy to investigate Trump.

        1. CoRev

          MD says: “A judge was convinced the warrant was justfied. ”
          And what a judge he is? We might better make a determination of justification if the affidavit is released. If it cites any of the documents found then its validity is suspect.

          MD also claimed: “Trump appointed the judge who issues the warrant, so I guess Trump is behind the conspiracy to investigate Trump.” Really, how gullible are you? Try reading this fact check:
          “District court judges appointed Reinhart

          Magistrate judges are typically appointed “by majority vote of the U.S. district judges” of a court, according to the United States Courts website. They are not appointed by the president, Stephen Saltzburg, professor of law at George Washington University, told USA TODAY in an email.”

          “Our rating: False

          Based on our research, we rate FALSE the claim that Trump appointed Reinhart as a magistrate judge in 2018. Federal district judges in Florida’s Southern District appointed Reinhart. Trump had no involvement.”

          1. pgl

            ‘if the affidavit is released.’

            I see you do not know how these things work. SURPRISE, SURPRISE, SUPRISE!!!

            It will be made public when Trump is indicted and his defense team (assuming they are more competent than you) files for discovery.

            I love it that you Trump fan boys have finally decided to call for Trump to be indicted. After all – the crimes he has committed are numerous and legendary!

      2. pgl

        I did not think anyone could be more pathetic than Trump’s defense lawyer but wow – you proved me wrong! n

      3. Barkley Rosser


        “herring test”? Sorry, this is too esoteric for me.

        How this came about is that initially the National Archives, where all presidential records are supposed to go (and all previous presidents have sent theirs), learned that Trump had taken lots of boxes to Mar-a-Lago he was not supposed to. This was about six months ago. They requested he send the boxes to them, and he sent 15 or so. The Archives then noticed that these contained some classified materials. They also learned that Trump was still sitting on even more boxes that he did not send. So they informed the DOJ of this, as Trump’s actions were clearly illegal, so the DOJ got going on this.

        In late May they issued an initial subpoena for Trump to send those additional boxes. Trump did not do so. The FBI in fact visited Mar-a-Lago to discuss the matter with him and his attorneys, but not with a warrant to take them. This visit did not get in the news and also failed to result in him turning over the boxes as he was legally required to do.

        So this led to the warrant, and in the end FBI took 20 boxes of apparently varying levels of classification, including one box at a level supposedly such that the documents in it are only supposed to be looked at in a super secure facility. Supposedly there are some kind of documents related to nuclear weapons in all this, but it remains unclear if there are any or not. But there is plenty of highly classified stuff in them, none of which he is legally allowed to keep at his place and which he previously refused to turn over when legally requested to do so by the National Archives.

        Regarding the affidavit, reporters have sued to have it released, with a judge giving both the DOJ and the Trump team until Monday to reply. WaPo reports they both want the affidavit kept sealed for now. From the DOJ side it is being reported they do not want it opened because it would in fact lead to the leaking of serious national security secrets, just the affidavit. Presumably Trump wants it still sealed because what is in it will seriously embarrass him. After all, he has already seriously resisted having any of these 20 boxes sent where they are supposed to go.

        Does any of this pass your “herring test,” Anonymous, and might some of what is in these boxes be more important and up to date than things you think you remember from 39 years ago?

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Reading today’s WaPo it is even worse. the original National Archives requests to Trump for missing materials dates to over a year ago. He denied he had any and resisted and resisted for many months, finally turning over the 15 after they threatened to go to the DOJ.

          Then we have the matter of the low key FBI visit in June. At that time they asked if there was any more classified material still being stored at Mar-a-Lago. Trump’s attorney signed an affiidavit affiirming that there was none. But there was, 11 boxes worth now taken. So Trump has blatantly lied on an affidavit about this matter after lots of investigation and inquiries.

          I do not know what your “hetting trst” is,Anonymous, but this now stinks to high heaven and the GOP defenders of Trump are rapidly running out of excuses or explanations for any of this that do not involve multiple forms of massive criminality and hypocrisy.

          1. CoRev

            Barkley Rosser claims the “attack of the librarians” is worth at a minimum the death sentence. AMIRIGHT?

            It all stinks of desperation and hatred.

          2. AndrewG


            “It all stinks of desperation and hatred.”

            Police identify suspect who tried to breach Ohio FBI building | Reuters, Aug 12, 2022
            “In a statement, the Ohio State Highway Patrol identified the suspect in Thursday’s incident as Ricky Shiffer, but did not disclose a motive. The New York Times and NBC News, citing unnamed sources, reported on Thursday that Shiffer may have had extreme right-wing views.

            “A man by the same name used Truth Social, the platform created by former President Donald Trump, to forewarn the attack. The man’s posts about the attack and other posts expressing extremist views were taken down shortly after police told reporters the suspect had been killed.

            “NBC News, citing two unnamed officials familiar with the matter, said the suspect also was at the U.S. Capitol building in Washington during the assault by Trump supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, in a failed attempt to prevent Congress from certifying Democrat Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory over the Republican former president.”

          3. Barkley Rosser


            “attack of the librarians”? Oh, the National Archives? They are not doing it anymore. Now it is the FBI, and they are after the Espionage Act. Further reporting has it that Trump was sitting on “sources and methods” stuff, which is indeed super secret, and he did not even have the storage facility secured. Newsweek is claiming that one item he had is a payroll list of US spies. What on earth is he doing with something as sensitive as that?

            Sorry, CoRev, you need to start facing up to Trump being a full-blown traitor.

    1. Moses Herzog

      As I mentioned in another thread, a close relative of mine had to phone SEVEN pharmacies to get 1 vial of Levemir. i.e the first SIX pharmacies, including the one they usually get their supplies from, had ZILCHO Levemir. Something is very wrong with this picture folks, and there is no news about Levemir shortages on the internet currently.

      They don’t live in Yates Center Kansas with one “5 and dime” store people, it’s a freak’n metro area.

    2. AndrewG

      There is ZERO justification for NOT regulating the price of insulin.

      But we also have to ask why charging these ludicrous prices is even possible. And I suspect the FDA is a big part of it. Generics should not be $90/unit.

  10. pgl

    In an apparently coordinated action, at least four major state-owned Chinese companies said Friday they intend to delist their stocks in the U.S., as Beijing appears unwilling to bend to increased U.S. scrutiny into the country’s financial auditing practices.

    I’m certainly no accountant but I find the information provided by the SEC on the 20-F filings (Annual Report) very useful when one wants to understand a company’s business. Now there are a lot of publicly traded Chinese companies that do not file 20-Fs. Generally their Annual Reports are not that informative. It is disappointing that these companies have chosen to provide shareholders less information.

  11. pgl

    I was reading some critique of Princeton Steve’s advanced macroeconomic model (the Quantity Theory of Money) ala Brad DeLong who is also a fan of the 1923 classic by Keynes A Tract on Monetary Reform:

    I included this link so both Bruce Hall (who is clearly a gold bug) and Pepperdine Ph.D. Rick Stryker (who may know the details of derivatives but is utterly clueless when it comes to monetary policy as it relates to Bruce’s babbling) can finally read this classic. Not that either one will have a clue what Keynes was saying.

  12. pgl

    I was reading some of the comments over at Kevin Drum’s place under his post on PPI when I noticed a rather informed comment about the ups and downs of lumber prices with this link:

    Passing it along for those who believe JohnH’s claim that lumber prices would never come back down.

    1. JohnH

      Funny! pgl thinks that “back down” means a return to the 2018 peak, which was 50% above what they had been running for some time. Oh well, what’s +/- 50% when you’re snarking!

      1. pgl

        Prices today are very near where they were during your 2018 “peak” so your 50% above proves you will tell any lie. Or was your vague “for some time” meant so other BS. Tell you what troll – try taking the entire series and inflation adjusting the nominal prices. Wait – you do not know how.

        But then I am referring to your claim that they were still about $1500 not below $600. Yea – you will deny that. But then everyone knows you lie about everything.

        1. JohnH

          I love it when pgl gets rattled and totally loses it!

          Fact is, during most of the 2010s, lumber prices were under $400. And people got accustomed to that price level. But pgl thinks that “back down” is $600! Gotcha!

          1. pgl

            Wow – prices of lumber are volatile. Stop the presses. Leave it to Putin’s pet poodle to cherry pick the data.

      2. pgl

        Huh – the nominal price of lumber was just over $480 back in Dec. 1993. Now JohnH may not know this as he knows nothing but the price level has doubled since then. So inflation adjusted this price was $960 which I think is great than the current price which is less than $600.

        But of course if one fell off one’s soapbox, I can see why JohnH thinks $600 is 1.5 times $960!

  13. Moses Herzog

    The Orange Abomination’s lawyers have about 1 hour left to block the warrant etc. Yeh know the bastard is gonna block it, and on top of that, some outlets are saying we won’t see most of the paperwork today even if it is “released”. I’m not sure why that is–red tape issues??–but there are semi-reliable outlets reporting even if his lawyers don’t block it, it may take time for it to show up in the court docket or whatever, I forgot the name of the docket service, maybe it is called “PACER”?? But that is where journalists will be hunting it down. You know, hitting the refresh button on the docket page every 2 seconds.

    1. pgl

      I’m having trouble keeping up with what these hack lawyers are saying. It was planted evidence. Oh wait – nothing classified there. Oh no never mind. Obama took out lot of classified data so Trump can too. Or was it he declassified our vital nuclear information but forgot to tell anyone. Maybe they should just admit it – Trump plans to sell the nuclear codes to Putin in order to bail out his massive debt.

    2. pgl

      MSNBC has a description of the crimes Trump may have committed as well as a list of the documents removed. The evening shows at Faux News will likely be quite heated and very comical.

  14. pgl

    You may have seen where ltr provided us Krugman’s discussion of the BLS report that prices did not rise at all in July. Now check this out – Fox News noted the same thing:

    Of course read on and you will see where Faux News slips in the claim that Krugman is denying we are in a recession. Never mind that we are not in a recession. Faux News like their chief economist Princeton Steve just has to tell us we are in a recession even though we are not.

  15. pgl

    Trump admits to taking classified documents but blames Obama for doing so too:

    Former President Donald Trump said former President Barack Obama kept 33 million pages of documents, many of them classified, and speculated that quite a few pertained to nuclear weapons. Trumps comments came in a statement released Friday: “President Barack Hussein Obama kept 33 million pages of documents, much of them classified. How many of them pertained to nuclear? Word is, lots.” A New York Post column claimed Tuesday that at the end of his presidency, Obama took 30 million pages of his administration’s records, vowing to digitize them and put them online. The column, by author James Bovard, said the National Archives reveals that no pages have been digitized or disclosed.

    Of course the New York Post is only good for lining the bird cage. Trump is just a pathetic little liar.

    1. AndrewG

      Trump tries to blackmail Zelenskyy. Doesn’t deny it. Caught on tape anyway.

      Trump tries to squeeze fake votes out of election officials. Doesn’t deny it. Caught on tape anyway.

      Trump secrets away sensitive documents illegally to his home he bought from his friend Tony Montoya. Doesn’t even deny it. Caught doing it anyway.

      In all cases, he doesn’t even deny what he’s done. His defense is, in its entirety: “Evander Holyfield bit somebody too!”

      If you’re defending Trump at any level at this point, it’s because you really do believe he should be above the law.

  16. pgl

    U.S. Inflation Outlook Brightens as Import Prices Drop, Consumer Sentiment Rises

    (Reuters) – U.S. import prices fell for the first time in seven months in July, helped by a strong dollar and lower fuel and nonfuel costs, while consumers’ one-year inflation outlook ebbed in August, the latest signs that price pressures may have peaked. Import prices, which exclude tariffs, fell 1.4% last month after rising 0.3% in June, the Labor Department said on Friday. That was the largest monthly drop since April 2020 and exceeded the 1.0% decline expected by economists in a Reuters poll. In the 12 months through July, import prices gained 8.8% after a 10.7% rise in June, marking the annual rate’s fourth straight monthly decline.

    Bruce Hall will find some way of claiming import prices rose and Ph.D. Pepperdine Rick Stryker will pull out his advanced calculus to argue Bruce is right.

    U.S. consumer sentiment ticked further up in August from a record low earlier this summer and American households’ near-term inflation outlook eased again on the back of the sharp drop in gasoline prices, a survey from the University of Michigan showed. The survey’s preliminary August reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 55.1, up from 51.5 in the prior month. It had hit a record low of 50 in June.

    OK Princeton Steve has pulled out his Excel file to spin this as more evidence we are in a RECESSION.

  17. pgl

    FBI agents removed classified documents marked as top secret when they searched Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence on Monday, according to a description of the search warrant receipt that lists the materials seized by federal agents, provided by a source directly familiar with the document. The most sensitive set of documents removed from Trump’s post-presidency home in Florida were listed generically as “Various Classified/TS/SCI” – the abbreviation that stands for top secret/sensitive compartmented information – the source said, among other records. FBI agents retrieved a total of 11 sets of classified documents, some of which were marked top secret, the Wall Street Journal first reported. Federal agents also took away four sets of top secret documents, three sets of secret documents, and three sets of confidential documents, the Journal reported.

    The potential crimes here almost make being a traitor look mild. LOCK HIM UP!

      1. Moses Herzog

        The one single benefit of ltr’s comments here, is it gives a rough idea of the intensity of the brainwashing and the nationalism of mainland China. You get a small flavor of what 19 in 20 mainland Chinese have going on in their minds. Mostly robotic. I was lucky the social circle I ran in (university campuses and those thirsting for outside knowledge, exterior to Chinese TV), that I was much more apt to find that 1 in 19 who had their own brain. But it would really be an inaccurate sampling of China to judge by my friends, and even among my close friends, it was maybe roughly 60/40, the 60 part being that 1 in 19 who were independent thinkers, the 40% part of my friends being the 19 in 20 brainwashed, if that makes any sense to you.

        1. Moses Herzog

          * 1 in 20 not “1 in 19” Truthful or not I’m blaming that error on the summer heat.

          1. Barkley Rosser


            Where did you think I said that ltr is a “him”? I have never said that. That particular idea is your weird fantasy that you have repeatedly pushed here, further highlighting how totally messed up you are regarding women.

  18. ltr

    August 12, 2022

    Balance of China’s yuan loans up in July

    BEIJING — The balance of China’s yuan-denominated loans increased by 679 billion yuan (about 100.7 billion U.S. dollars) in July, central bank data showed Friday.

    The M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, increased 12 percent year on year to 257.81 trillion yuan at the end of last month, according to the People’s Bank of China.

  19. ltr

    August 9, 2022

    China’s passenger car sales soar in July as supply chain improves

    BEIJING — China’s passenger vehicle market recorded robust growth in July with rising sales and production, industrial data showed on Tuesday.

    Some 1.82 million passenger cars were sold via retail channels in July, up 20.4 percent year on year, posting a relatively high growth compared with that in the past decade, data from the China Passenger Car Association showed.

    Production of China’s passenger vehicles amounted to 2.16 million units in July, surging 41.6 percent year on year.

    The improving logistics and supply chains, increased business activity, the country’s raft of pro-consumption measures, among other factors, all contributed to the auto market expansion, the association said.

    China in late May announced it would halve the car purchase tax for passenger vehicles priced at no more than 300,000 yuan (about 44,389 U.S. dollars) and with 2-liter engines or smaller. The tax cut will last from June 1 to the end of the year.

    Major auto companies also stepped up their promotional activities in July to counter the setbacks suffered earlier this year due to COVID-19 flare-ups, in order to meet their annual goals, according to the association.

    In July, the retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China soared 117.3 percent year on year to about 486,000 units. In the first seven months, the sales of NEVs totaled 2.73 million units, skyrocketing by 121.5 percent year on year, the data showed….

    1. ltr

      August 10, 2022

      Chinese auto brands gain larger domestic market share in July

      BEIJING — Sales of Chinese-brand passenger cars continued steady growth in July, with their share of the domestic market further increasing year on year, industry data showed.

      A total of 850,000 units of these cars were sold in China via retail channels last month, up 34 percent year on year and rising 4 percent on a monthly basis, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

      During the same period, retail sales of domestic-brand cars accounted for 47.4 percent of the total in China, up 4.8 percentage points compared to the previous year.

      In the first seven months of the year, the cumulative market share of these cars rose 8.9 percentage points year on year to 47 percent of the domestic market.

      The association highlighted the rapid development of domestic auto brands in the new-energy vehicle market….

  20. pgl

    The Climate Change/Health Care Reform (aka Inflation Reduction Act) just got its 220 votes in the House. Off to Biden’s desk to sign into law!!!

    1. CoRev

      Ole, if he’s writing he’s lying says: “The Climate Change/Health Care Reform (aka Inflation Reduction Act) just got its 220 votes in the House. Off to Biden’s desk to sign into law!!!”

      I can hardly wait to start measuring the impacts from this bill. I have NO DOUBT they will be overwhelmingly negative. Another Democrat triumph.

      1. pgl

        I reported honestly what the vote was and you start screaming LYING. Oh yea – you last sentence was a LIE. Got it. Now back to chasing your own tail.

      2. AndrewG

        “I have NO DOUBT they will be overwhelmingly negative.”


        “I have complete faith in Fox News reporting.”

        1. CoRev

          Andrew G, you’ve reached Moses’, ltr’s and Bark, barks status. Just another commenter to bypass due to failing to add value.

          BTW, if you want to refute my comment with evidence it might revive what little value you provide. I can find many articles supporting my climate and inflation impacts position re: the IRA.

        2. Barkley Rosser


          While you regularly subtract value here, your posts on climate and inflation doing so especially.

          1. CoRev

            Barkley claims: “While you regularly subtract value here, your posts on climate and inflation doing so especially.” I know how weak they must be as they almost NEVER are refuted. As is my request to list Biden’s successful policies or specifically his policies which produced the employment successes.

            I’ll wait for those ole refutations.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            No, CoRev, your arguments have been refuted more times than I can count. You simply ignore the refutations and pretend they did not happen. It is actually quite bizarre to watch. But then you live in a total fantasy world.

            I mean, how many decorations did you get for your alleged participation in the Apollo program, and how many of them did you hang on the wall?

          3. CoRev

            Barkley, since you think: “your arguments have been refuted more times than I can count.” Show us a few. There must b so many to choose from. Here are the categories from which to choose: climate, inflation, and a list Biden’s successful policies

  21. pgl

    Trump’s excuse for taking top security information on our nuclear weapons was “Obama did it too”. Did I say Trump lied?

    The National Archives and Records Administration pushed back on former President Donald Trump’s assertions that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had taken classified documents from the White House as he faces intense scrutiny over records he possessed after federal officials raided his Florida home.

    Trump is a pathetic little boy who lies about everything.

    1. AndrewG

      Trump supporters will believe anything. I see them elsewhere claiming presidents going back to Clinton did the same — and that it was OK. Total BS made up entirely to protect Dear Leader.

      Anyone defending Trump right now is against the rule of law.

  22. Macroduck

    Like I (and Bloomberg) said, credit growth slowed sharply.

    “Aggregate financing, a broad measure of credit, was 756 billion yuan ($112 billion), the People’s Bank of China said Friday. That’s the smallest increase since comparable data began in 2017 and far lower than the 1.4 trillion yuan consensus estimate. Financial institutions offered 679 billion yuan ($101 billion) of new loans in the month, down from 2.8 trillion yuan in June.”

    Smallest increase in aggregate financing since records began in 2017. A sharp decline in credit growth is often a sign of recession.

    U.S. credit growth, on the other hand, is pretty steady.

  23. pgl

    Paul Gosar – “We must destroy the FBI”.

    Your modern Republican Party hates law enforcement.

  24. pgl

    Old Uncle Moses who probably has never played a real basketball game in his life has decided Britney Griner deserves 9 years in a Russian jail. As usual he plays the damn race card as he dismisses the right of a brave woman athlete. Let me remind him of the 1968 Olympic 200 meter men’s final where the top 3 runners simply expressed the rights of blacks and were banned from track for their courage:

    It’s an iconic image: Two athletes raise their fists on the Olympic podium. The photograph, taken after the 200 meter race at the 1968 Summer Olympics in Mexico City, turned African-American athletes Tommie Smith and John Carlos from track-and-field stars into the center of a roiling controversy over their raised-fist salute, a symbol of Black power and the human rights movement at large.

    I guess Old Uncle Moses thinks Tommie Smith and John Carlos got what they deserved. Then again Old Uncles Moses would probably take 2 minutes to run half a lap.

    1. AndrewG

      Griner is 100% a political pawn. So are the other two prominent Americans in Russian captivity.

      1. pgl

        News is that the prisoner swap is in the works. I get we will be releasing a disgusting human being but we need to bring these 3 Americans home.

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