Firm expectations nudge up, but household/consumer expectations are down. Survey of Professional Forecasters forecasts as of early July, out on Friday.
Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), mean from Coibion-Gorodnichenko firm expectations survey [light blue squares]. Michigan July observation is preliminary. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko.