Business Cycle Indicators Reported as of Mid-September

With August industrial production coming in below consensus (m/m -0.2% vs. 0.1% Bloomberg), we have the following picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), official GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Lilac shading denotes dates associated with a hypothetical recession in H1. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (9/1/2022 release), and author’s calculations.

GDP and other indicators seem to be at variance; however, if we look at GDO, they seem more consistent.

Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), Gross Domestic Output, GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Lilac shading denotes dates associated with a hypothetical recession in H1. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (9/1/2022 release), and author’s calculations.

For more discussion of GDP vs. GDO and other related measures, see this post from the beginning of the month.

14 thoughts on “Business Cycle Indicators Reported as of Mid-September

  1. pgl

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/he-lied-to-them-mar-a-lago-affidavit-suggests-donald-trump-made-false-statements-to-attorneys/ar-AA11PKSE?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=197c0cc4acd44c5bbbba0c32479ab30c

    More from the legal battles around the Maro Lago search – it seems Trump lied to his own attorneys. Hey – no one should be surprised. Speaking of lying – those little “defenses” of Trump from fake lawyer Ricky boy Stryker have gotten incredibly lame. I’m sure his reply to this news will leave us all laughing on the floor.

    Reply
    1. Barkley Rosser

      pgl,

      Oh, but now Trump has told Hugh Hewitt that indeed he did declassify everything at Mar-a-Lago. I give “Rick Stryker” credit for predicting Trump would do this. As it is, I think Rick should publicly adopt a new fake name: John Marshall, just to really impress all of us with his legal acumen, :-).

      Reply
      1. Jacob

        Won’t say it under oath, I bet. Certainly his lawyers haven’t in court (only on TV). That hasn’t stopped Judge Cannon from acting as if there is some doubt about their status as classified documents. She seems determined to give Trump special treatment under the law: “Based on the nature of this action, the principles of equity require the Court to consider the specific context at issue, and that consideration is inherently impacted by the position formerly held by Plaintiff.”. That is, in the words of Renato Mariotti, former presidents get special treatment. I’d argue further that what she really means is Republican Presidents, especially those named Donald Trump. I am not a lawyer, but there seems to be quite a bit that is quite questionable about her special master order, and her denial of the DOJ’s motion to continue its investigation (not least of which is that she’s telling the Executive Branch that one part of the Executive Branch can access the documents but another part of it cannot.

        Reply
        1. pgl

          Can you imagine Ricky pooh Stryker having to answer real questions under oath especially given the unbelievably dishonest babble he spews here as his supposedly expert legal analysis. I suspect the amount of legal fees he has received from Trump for his “efforts” is exactly zero. After all the value of it is negative.

          Reply
  2. ltr

    https://english.news.cn/20220916/b41b61f4ed50430bbd8bd2515ae6abb8/c.html

    September 16, 2022

    China’s carbon neutrality can mitigate global warming: study

    BEIJING — Chinese researchers recently published an assessment of the mitigation of China’s carbon neutrality to global warming, noting that the country’s efforts can mitigate global warming by 0.48 and 0.40 degrees Celsius under intermediate and very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

    According to the study * published in the journal Nature Communications, compared with the period from 1850 to 1900, the global mean surface temperature from 2081 to 2100 is estimated to increase by 1.7 degrees Celsius under the low greenhouse gas emission scenario.

    The global mean surface temperature from 2081 to 2100 is estimated to rise by 2.7 and 3.4 degrees Celsius under the two intermediate scenarios, and by 4.7 degrees Celsius under the very high scenario.

    The global surface temperature from 2001 to 2020 was 0.99 degrees Celsius higher than that from 1850 to 1900, according to a report by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

    Researchers from Nanjing Normal University, Peking University, Tsinghua University, and institutions under the Chinese Academy of Sciences used a model that consists of atmosphere, land, ocean, river and other components for simulation.

    The simulation results show that joint efforts from all countries in the world are needed to mitigate further global warming through net-zero carbon actions, according to the study.

    * https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33047-9

    Reply
    1. ltr

      https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33047-9

      September 9, 2022

      Mitigation of China’s carbon neutrality to global warming
      By Longhui Li, Yue Zhang, Tianjun Zhou, Kaicun Wang, Can Wang, Tao Wang, Linwang Yuan, Kangxin An, Chenghu Zhou & Guonian Lü

      Abstract

      Projecting mitigations of carbon neutrality from individual countries in relation to future global warming is of great importance for depicting national climate responsibility but is poorly quantified. Here, we show that China’s carbon neutrality (CNCN) can individually mitigate global warming by 0.48 °C and 0.40 °C, which account for 14% and 9% of the global warming over the long term under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Further incorporating changes in CH4 and N2O emissions in association with CNCN together will alleviate global warming by 0.21 °C and 0.32 °C for SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 over the long term, and even by 0.18 °C for SSP2-4.5 over the mid-term, but no significant impacts are shown for all SSPs in the near term. Divergent responses in alleviated warming are seen at regional scales. The results provide a useful reference for the global stocktake, which assesses the collective progress towards the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.

      Reply
  3. Ivan

    None of what DOJ is investigating hinges on whether these stolen documents are classified or not. There is no denying that they have national security relevance, regardless of their status. In practical terms this delay is not that much of a hindrance for the investigation. They know what type of stuff is there since they already got 15 boxes (with no restrictions on them) – the remaining 30 boxes from the search will be more of the same. What the judge is doing with the help of Trump is to make sure the publics attention gets diverged towards Trump and his idiocies rather than inflation. I can only smile about that.

    Reply
  4. pgl

    https://jabberwocking.com/we-really-really-dont-need-a-huge-recession/

    Wow – Kevin Drum takes on Paul Krugman. Krugman starts off noting that the labor market is still strong despite the higher interest rates. He is right about that and Kevin does not disagree here (of course Princeton Steve has been screaming RECESSION for months but this debate does not include village idiots). Krugman then goes all Larry Summers on us saying the labor market needs to cool to bring down inflation to which Kevin decides to school Dr, Krugman. Interesting stuff!

    Reply
  5. ltr

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=KH4x

    January 4, 2018

    Real Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees in Manufacturing, 2017-2022

    (Indexed to 2017)

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=KH70

    January 4, 2018

    Real Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees in Construction, 2017-2022

    (Indexed to 2017)

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=JvTl

    January 4, 2018

    Real Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees in Transportation and Warehousing, 2017-2022

    (Indexed to 2017)

    [ For a supposedly strong labor market, which in terms of low unemployment this surely is, the difficulty being experienced in gaining real earnings increases is troubling. ]

    Reply
  6. ltr

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/15/opinion/covid-booster-shot.html

    September 15, 2022

    There’s Terrific News About the New Covid Boosters, but Few Are Hearing It
    By Zeynep Tufekci

    For the first time, the United States is rolling out Covid vaccines updated to match variants that are currently dominant, as well as the original strain. This bivalent character will provide a better response to the most threatening variants today but probably to future variants, too, because when the immune system faces different versions of the same virus it generates broader protections overall.

    This is terrific news, and there’s more. Not only will a booster with the new vaccines decrease the likelihood of infection and severe illness and help reduce transmission of the virus; it could also decrease the likelihood of developing long Covid.

    The bad news? The boosters are getting so little fanfare, and so much unfounded skepticism, that too few people might get them, and lots of people who need not get sick, suffer or die will get sick, suffer or die.

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said that a national survey found that 72 percent of respondents said they were likely to receive an updated booster. But to actually get them vaccinated requires making the boosters easily accessible and making sure people know about their benefits.

    The White House coronavirus response coordinator, Ashish Jha, said last week that people might consider getting the booster when they get flu shots, which many do in October and, barring a new variant curveball, think of it as an annual shot going forward. That’s fine if people do that, especially since many immunologists say it’s best to wait three to six months after one’s last vaccination or infection, and many people have had recent infections.

    However, only about half of adults in the United States get the flu vaccine, and most haven’t gotten the earlier Covid boosters. Without a vigorous outreach program and promotion, millions of Americans who are not anti-vaxxers but could use a powerful nudge won’t get this helpful dose.

    Zeynep Tufekci is a professor at Columbia University.

    Reply
  7. ltr

    https://www.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

    November 8, 2022

    Cumulative Number of Child COVID-19 Cases

    Over 14.6 million children are reported to have tested positive for COVID-19 since the onset of the pandemic according to available state reports; over 340,000 of these cases have been added in the past 4 weeks. Approximately 6.7 million reported cases have been added in 2022.

    14,622,533 total child COVID-19 cases reported, and children represented 18.4% (14,622,533 / 79,378,585) of all cases

    Overall rate: 19,428 cases per 100,000 children in the population

    American Academy of Pediatrics
    Children’s Hospital Association

    Reply
  8. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-09-16/Chinese-mainland-records-161-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1dmOi3KuomY/index.html

    September 16, 2022

    Chinese mainland records 161 new confirmed COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 161 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Thursday, with 102 attributed to local transmissions and 59 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Friday.

    A total of 825 asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Thursday, and 19,449 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    The cumulative number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland is 247,885, with the death toll from COVID-19 standing at 5,226.

    The latest tally of confirmed cases in the Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions and Taiwan region is as follows:

    Hong Kong: 404,053 (79,828 recoveries, 9,836 deaths)

    Macao: 793 (787 recoveries, six deaths)

    Taiwan: 5,849,748 (13,742 recoveries, 10,423 deaths)

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-09-16/Chinese-mainland-records-161-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1dmOi3KuomY/img/e46972dbc51b491ea52a15eabfadd4cb/e46972dbc51b491ea52a15eabfadd4cb.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-09-16/Chinese-mainland-records-161-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1dmOi3KuomY/img/25ea40e7f9514be9ad6107225e5da2b6/25ea40e7f9514be9ad6107225e5da2b6.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-09-16/Chinese-mainland-records-161-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1dmOi3KuomY/img/a5b75a1d584a48b683e16c42813c55c7/a5b75a1d584a48b683e16c42813c55c7.jpeg

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.