Ukrainian Territorial Gains in September

From JohnH on 9/2/2022, in response to anonymous’s query: “how’s the crossing of the dneipr and reconquesta of kherson going?”

It’s a stealth counteroffensive! Nothing in the US media…a sea change from the heretofore triumphalist “Ukraine is Winning” narrative.

But there is plenty in the Russian media: “Ukraine suffers heavy losses in failed offensive – Moscow”

Gotta keep sifting and winnowing to find the truth…

Here’s the situation on the ground as of 9/29, according to ISW (light blue shading denotes areas retaken by Ukrainian forces since 9/2):

Ukrainian forces seem to be about to close another trap around Russian forces in Lyman:

I will let readers answer for themselves the question JohnH posed on 9/2: “How is that trap working out?” (that is feinting an attack in the south to draw troops away from the Kharkiv area).




17 thoughts on “Ukrainian Territorial Gains in September

  1. pgl

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has called the “unprecedented sabotage” to the Nord Stream natural-gas pipelines “an act of international terrorism,” according to a Thursday Kremlin statement.

    Putin is right to call this terrorism but the problem is that Putin is the terrorist here.

    1. 2slugbaits

      While I wouldn’t put anything past Putin, I also wouldn’t entirely rule out the possibility that those cracks in the pipeline could have a more innocent explanation; viz., the usual crappy Russian quality in just about everything they make from tires to battle tanks.

      1. Barkley Rosser


        I know Russian sources who oppose the Putin war but in fact believe the point you make here, that this is a matter of poor quality of the Russian pipes.

        While that may play a role, what makes me think otherwise is that there were three explosions happening near the same time, with them on two different pipelines. I find it hard to believe all these bad quality pipes just went bad at the same time, with that market by explosions.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Another point not made much of in the US media, although I saw it in the Fin Times, is that this coincided with the opening of a new pipeline from Norway to the rest of the continent. This also seems just too suspiciously propitious, if you will.

  2. pgl

    Gas supplies will tighten into next year as constraints continue to mount, IEA chief Fatih Birol said.
    Birol’s supply warning came shortly after the Nord Stream explosions, which caused gas prices to surge 11%.
    “It is very obvious … who was behind this issue,” Birol said at a Paris energy conference.

    International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol did not hold back. Putin is an international terrorist.

  3. pgl

    Vladimir Putin has officially signed several treaties which annex parts of occupied Ukraine into Russia, in a major breach of international law. During a major speech in the Kremlin on Friday, the Russian president said: “I want the Kyiv government and their real bosses in the West to hear me … Residents of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson are becoming our citizens forever.” This is very significant in terms of the ongoing war, and shows the Russian president is now escalating the conflict to new levels after a series of losses. Even before the speech, the UN secretary general described the move as “a violation of the Principles of the UN Charter and international law”.

    1. Barkley Rosser


      Yes, and he is fighting against “despotism” and “Satanism” too. The transphobes of the world should be strongly moved by his speech.

      And, ironically, not long after his speech, Ukrainian forces apparently entered the freshly annexed Lyman, which they are about to take, if they have not already done so. This will be followed by some further dramatic retakings of other freshly annexed territories in the northeast. Putin could not be humiliating himself more.

      1. pgl

        I tried to get ahead of Kevin Drum at my own peril:

        the August reading is 4.9% and appears to have peaked around March. By chance, the average of PCE core over the past four months is 5.0%, exactly the same as the change over the past year. It’s probably safe to say that 5% is roughly where we’re at with PCE core inflation right now. That’s too high and it’s not declining fast enough.

        But what did BEA report?

        So month to month PCE rose less than core PCE

        The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.6 percent

  4. pgl

    I hope no one takes Michael Flynn seriously:

    Flynn made the remarks at an event for Mark Finchem, a QAnon-linked lawmaker and 2020 election denier, who is the Republican candidate for Arizona secretary of state. Flynn’s speech surfaced in a brief video that was circulating on Twitter on Thursday, and has been viewed nearly 500,000 times. Former federal prosecutor Ron Filipkowski tweeted out the clip, writing: “At a campaign event for AZ Sect of State candidate Mark Finchem, Michael Flynn says 90% of Fed agencies should be disbanded.” In the video, Flynn, a retired Army lieutenant general, says “90 percent of the departments of whatever, just lock them up.” “States’ rights. Did you know that a governor can declare war? A governor can declare war. And we’re going to probably see that,” Flynn added.

      1. Macroduck

        Article 1, Section 8 – Congress declares war

        Article 1, Section 10, Paragraph 3 – “No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, … engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.”

        Article 2, Section 2 – The President is commander in chief of the army and navy

        That’s the whole show, right there. In the twisted world of Stephen Miller, illegal immigration is invasion and imminent danger. That’s probably what Flynn was getting at. If so, he probably won’t clarify unless he has to. There’s more MAGA-minded rage-performance in pretending Texas will declare war on New York

  5. Ivan

    Putin’s desperate attempt to mobilize and send more soldiers to the battlefield says everything you need to know about how it’s going. Putin is a KGB guy trying to run a military with big structural flaws, that is a bad idea. No doubt that the competence of Ukraine and incompetence of Russian leadership has allowed the country with less equipment and soldiers to turn the tide, but it will be a slow process. Success in offense usually require a 3-fold excess of equipment and soldiers (if their quality is matched). Ukraine cannot do that so they have instead come up with a brilliant strategy of fighting and probing the whole 1100 mile frontline, then rushing in offense wherever there is a weakness. They cannot afford to lose resources at the same level as Russia so they use a resource sparing strategy. They also use HIMARS and sabotage to reduce the supplies to the Russian frontlines, as a way to induce the weakness that will allow them to attack. This is a slower strategy but Ukraine can sustain a longer war than Russia can. It is not just Russian military that is breaking down at so many levels due to the war. The blatant discrimination that has been reported against different ethnic groups in the current forced mobilization could destroy Russia as a country. Imagine if US were mobilizing from the general population and 90% of black and hispanic males got send to the frontlines whereas only 10% of the whites were. If the destruction of Russias military continues long enough they may not have the strength to defend against insurgencies in breakaway regions.

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