November industrial and manufacturing production both surprised on the downside — -0.2% and -0.1% vs. +0.1% and -0.1% m/m (Bloomberg). This is the resulting picture for some key variables followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (12/1/2022 release), and author’s calculations.
Retail sales (not in the set above) also declined -0.6% m/m, below -0.1% m/m in Bloomberg consensus.
Q4 GDPNow revised down from 3.2% q/q SAAR (12/9) to 2.8%, IHS-Markit/S&P Global today at 3.3% down from 3.6% (12/9), while GS unchanged at 1.7%.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/15/business/hospital-staffing-ascension.html
December 15, 2022
How a Sprawling Hospital Chain Ignited Its Own Staffing Crisis
Ascension, one of the country’s largest health systems, spent years cutting jobs, leaving it flat-footed when the pandemic hit.
By Rebecca Robbins, Katie Thomas and Jessica Silver-Greenberg
At a hospital in a Chicago suburb last winter, there were so few nurses that psychiatric patients with Covid were left waiting a full day for beds, and a single aide was on hand to assist with 32 infected patients. Nurses were so distraught about the inadequate staffing that they banded together to file formal complaints every day for more than a month.
About 300 miles away, at a hospital outside Flint, Mich., similar scenes were unfolding. Chronic understaffing meant that patients languished in dried feces, while robots replaced nursing assistants who would normally sit with mentally impaired patients.
Both hospitals are owned by one of the country’s largest health systems, Ascension. It spent years reducing its staffing levels in an effort to improve profitability, even though the chain is a nonprofit organization with nearly $18 billion of cash reserves.
Since the start of the pandemic, nurses have been leaving hospitals in droves. The exodus stems from many factors, with the hospital industry blaming Covid, staff burnout and tight labor markets for acute shortages of staff.
But a New York Times investigation has found that hospitals helped lay the groundwork for the labor crisis long before the arrival of the coronavirus. Looking to bolster their bottom lines, hospitals sought to wring more work out of fewer employees. When the pandemic swamped hospitals with critically ill patients, their lean staffing went from a financial strength to a glaring weakness.
More than half of the roughly 5,000 hospitals in the United States are nonprofits. In exchange for avoiding taxes, the Internal Revenue Service requires them to offer services, such as free health care for low-income patients, that help their communities.
But The Times this year has documented how large chains of nonprofit hospitals have moved away from their charitable missions.
Some have skimped on free care for the poor, illegally saddling tens of thousands of patients with debts. Others have plowed resources into affluent suburbs while siphoning money from poorer areas.
And many have cut staff to skeletal levels, often at the expense of patient safety.
At a single hospital in Northern California, the sprawling nonprofit hospital chain Providence laid off dozens of medical staff in 2017 and 2018, resulting in long waits for crucial care. At a Washington State hospital that is part of CommonSpirit Health, another giant nonprofit chain, years of belt-tightening reached a breaking point in October when an overwhelmed nurse called 911 dispatchers, who sent the fire department to help care for patients….
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/15/world/europe/uk-nhs-nurses-strike.html
December 12, 2022
Nurses in U.K. Strike for First Time, Seeking Higher Pay
The walkout is just one of a series of industrial actions across Britain this month as ballooning inflation, rising interest rates and a recession put pressure on workers.
By Megan Specia and Stephen Castle
LONDON — Nurses across Britain went on strike on Thursday for the first time in the 74-year history of the National Health Service, underscoring critical challenges facing the long-revered system after years of underfunding and as the government contends with a burgeoning fiscal crisis….
[ Jeremy Corbyn as head of Labour suggested important policy changes meant to strengthen the National Health Service, but Corbyn was replaced as Labour head and is actually being removed from Labour after decades representing the Party in Parliament. ]
You want a laugh – check this out. Now anyone who has $100 per card to waste on such garbage has too much money:
https://collecttrumpcards.com/
‘Each Trump Digital Trading Card has a unique pre-assigned rarity. Some will be one-of-one’s (i.e. the only one in the world), while others will be limited to 2, 5, 7, or 10 copies. No Trump Digital Trading Card will have more than 20 copies in existence!’
BTW – this claim these cards have limitations on the number of them being issued is really stupid. Trump will do anything to take as much money from those MAGA morons as he can.
I assume the target audience is a.m. conservative radio, TBN, FOX 1:00am–4:00am. and “Christian” radio. It’ll be enough to make Amway members jealous.
BTW, there’s an unconfirmed rumor that Barkley Junior has been purchasing mass quantities of donald trump Chia pets with dreams of becoming rich. I don’t know…… seems consistent with his other daydreams, like when Barkley predicted Kamala Harris taking the Georgia Democratic primary.
https://www.chia.com/products/donald-trump-chia-pet
Chuh-chuh-chuh-Chia!!!!!!
How is SNL going to make a joke out of this. Reality so absurd that any parody would be way over the top. Maybe their opening skit should simply be playing this luny announcement from the real Trump.
Well, as “expert on Russia” Barkley Rosser found out 8 days after stating there would be no invasion of Ukraine by Russia (Barkley stated on February 16th no invasion would occur, the war started February 24th) , words have a way of catching up to you:
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/16/trump-jan-6-perry-00074379
For Republican Scott Perry it took much longer for his words to catch up with him. Obviously longer than just 8 days to look like a jack-A$$. But Scott Perry isn’t quite as hopeless as Mr. Rosser is at measuring headwinds.
Moses,
At it yet again? Remind us how you had Russian troops on the soil of a NATO member, preparing to invade Ukraine, Romania, the southest part in particular. Sheesh.
Barkley Junior has latched on to this false narrative to clear himself on being an absolute shit-for-brains throughout this WHOLE episode. These in fact were my last words in that comment verbatim:
“If you Google it they call it “the breakaway Republic of Moldova,” <<—-My EXACT words in the comment.
And below is a map. Barkley has looked so braindead throughout this entire episode~~from what the troops were doing in Belarus, to what would happen in Kharkiv, to the safety of the American embassy, to echoing Putin propaganda like it was the word of God, and on and on and on, Mr. Rosser took a comment where I mentioned where Russian troops were located, which included “breakaway” Moldova (this place in some ways is similar to what used to be called Manchuria or even Kashmir in the context that it is a piece of land that has been claimed by multiple nations, or “tribes” if you will, over an extended period of time) and Mr. Rosser even tried to make it out—again his own fantasy creation of my words~~ that I was saying Moldova was part of Belarus, when in fact all I had very clearly stated in the same comment was that there were Russian troops in east Moldova. Which you can see in this March 2022 map of the location of Russian troops (the red coloring on the map, in the lower left).
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3/why-capturing-ukraine-kherson-important-for-russia
Folks, the man in Harrisonburg VA is either one of two things SEVERELY DISINGENUOUS OR SENILE—you can take your pick which is more probable. My educated guess is, this old man with delusions of himself as an “expert on Russia” DID NOT EVEN KNOW THERE WERE RUSSIAN TROOPS STAGED IN MOLDOVA. PERIOD.
Moses Herzog: For context, here is your entire comment:
Here is some explanation for readers on the Russian troops in east Moldova. I have to put this link up because some sad old man works at (like a grade school child) muddying the waters and conflating separate issues of any debate in which he has been shown to be tangibly wrong multiple times.
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-warns-moldova-over-transnistria-troops/a-63013005
Menzie, I’m just gonna ask you straight out, since apparently, blatantly false comments by some of your colleagues seems not to trouble you terribly.
2 Questions:
1) have you become so biased towards your collegial peers that you are as near far gone as Barkley Junior and think I was saying Romania and Moldova are part of Belarus?? Are you that far gone to assist a colleague in that nonsense??
2) Are you also so biased and so far gone to defend your worst acting colleagues, to think I was saying that because Russian troops were staged in east Moldova (for over a decade BTW, possibly practicing horticulture and making some rose gardens??), that instead of discussing the strong possibility of those Russian troops in east Moldova invading Ukraine, I was saying that relatively small contingent would “head west” and invade Romania?? If so, I say IF SO I think you should legally represent any professor located in the American mainland being threatened to have their tenure taken, as I doubt they could find a lawyer on planet Earth to represent them who would “buy into” such ludicrous storylines.
Moses,
BTW, I just did what you suggested here and googled “Moldova” where there was an option to hit “Moldova a breakaway republic of Romania.” However, what came up when I did that was a whole bunch of entries about Transniestria, not Moldova. The Soviets took Moldova from Romania in 1940, and prior to 1920 the region was known as “Bessarabia,” or most of it anyway.
Apparently the Russian troops that supported Transniestria breaking away from Moldova in 1990 had been there since 1950, and they did so on the order of a local general, Lebed, not in response to anything ordered out of Moscow. The troops had intermarried with the locals and supported them being broken away from the becoming newly independent Moldova, which was going to dump the Cyrillic alphabet in favor of the Latin one used in Romania. Yet again, there was no way those troops were going to participate in an invasion of Ukraine, and they have not done so, as I accurately forecast when you made your idiotic comments about Russian troops supposedly being in “southeaat Romania.”
Moses,
Wow, you have completely lost it here, absolutely desperate to score points in a completely irrelevant side show you insisted on starting. Dr. Chinn has provided your own quote that goes on about how it is “for all intents and purposes that is southeast Romania.” Having had your behind caught on this matter, you have somehow decided that I did not know there were Russian troops un Transniestrian Moldova, but, sorry, I am not going to drag them up, but I remember full well when you posted this nonsense that i in facr immediately noted that indeed that there have been Russian troops in that location for a long time. I also noted at that time that it was highly unlikely these would be used in any invasion of Ukraine that might happen, which most of the time I was admitting, even though you remain focused on a few days when I thought it would not happen. I said if there was an invasion those troops in Transneistrian Moldova would not be part of it because they were there to protect the de facto independence of that location from Moldova proper. That has turned out to be true: they have remained there and not invaded Ukraine. I was right, and you were wrong.
And going on about Moldova being a “breakaway republic of Romania” looks pretty silly, if “technically true.” But it became independent in WW II. Might as well call Romania “a breakaway republic of Turkey” or, heck, the US as “a breakaway republic of Britain.”
Anyway, your most blown up statement all in caps and bolding you so like to do when you are really losing it is simply an outright lie. I most certainly did know those troops were in Transniestrian Moldova and explained accurately why at the time.
Barkley PhD, What date did you say Russia wouldn’t invade Ukraine again??? I forgot the date you said that “wouldn’t happen”. Or is that a mathematical regression you made or some same said correlation?? 2 + 2 ?? Please update:
Moses,
Gag, you have fallen totally on your face numerous times now with this garbage. On the matter of the invasion, my view of it shifted over time as new information came in. I was worried about a possible serious invasion especially after July 2021 when Putin published his wacko essay on Ukraine that basically said it has no right even to exist. But he had also moved troops to the border before and made threatening noises, only then to pull back, and all along the Ukrainian leadership said this was more of that, and I took and take them seriously. A year ago I put it at 60-40 no major invasion when disagreeing with David Ignatius.
At the time of the Winter Olympics, I said that if Putin was going to invade he would wait until right after the Olympics, which is what he did. Then there was this speech he gave, yes, just over a week before he invaded, in which he said the troops in Belarus were “coming home” after their exercises were over, a speech believed, again I note by most of the troops themselves and their parents. I guess he was doing that to fake out the Ukrainians, but while on the one hand they thought he was bluffing, like my longer term view they did take seriously that he might really invade and did make some preparations that were crucial in them defending themselves. And again, and I did previously bring up the specific comments here BUT AM NOT GOING TO DO IT AGAIN, this having become way too much already, that when Lukashenka declared Ukraine was threatening to invade Belarus, I changed back to, oh no, Putin is quite likely to invade, this before he did, although you have recently lied here that I did not say so. You are really behaving very badly on this matter, very badly, just blatant stupid lying over and over and over again.
On the matter of Moldova, somebody may have called it a “breakaway republic” of Romania, but t did not break away. What happened was that the Soviet Union conquered it in WW II and took it from Romania, largely to punish Romania for having a pro-Nazi government for awhile, making it one of the 15 republics in the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics. But there had never been an independent Molodova prior to 1991 when the USSR dissolved, in contrast to Ukraine, which did have some periods previously of independence.
The “breakaway republic” is actually Transniestria, where infeed Russian troops have been located since not long after 1991. And, despite you claimming in capital and boldened letters that I did not know those Russian troops were there, I sure as heck did. Heck, I have even mentioned this fact in publications now decades old, but I am not going to drag those out. I know you really want to convince people otherwise, but the hard fact is that indeed I am an expert on Russia and know more about than anybody posting here, although maybe there is somebody laying low here who knows more that I do, but if so, it is not you, “Moses Herzog.”
“” ‘Shameful’: Critics Denounce US Warship Named ‘Fallujah,’ Site of Civilian Massacres in Iraq
Some of the most heinous U.S. war crimes committed during the Iraq War took place in the city of Fallujah,” said journalist Jeremy Scahill.“
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/12/14/shameful-critics-denounce-us-warship-named-fallujah-site-civilian-massacres-iraq
Yep, the US really, really cares about human rights…but only when somebody else is committing the atrocities and war crimes. Talk about hypocrisy and double standards.
JohnH,
Well, heck, if you want to go on and on about various bad things done by Americans why not regale us with accounts of slavery and massacres of Native Americans? And as for Iraq, you are not going to get too far here with that stuff as most of us whom you like to argue with about Putin’s invasion of Ukraine opposed the US invasion of Iraq. So maybe some people are hypocritical or engaging in double standards, but not most of us you debate with. You are just wasting your and out time with this sort of stuff here.
Rosser, when did you ever indicate that you were aware of US atrocities and war crimes in Iraq and Afghanistan? When did you ever demand that the US be held accountable for its behavior? When did you ever demand that the US atone for its behavior? Yet for some strange reason you feel compelled to vociferously criticize Putin for doing what the US did recently…and shoving recent US behavior down the memory hole.
Criticizing Russia for atrocious behavior won’t change how they act, but if enough American voters get outraged by US behavior and demand that the US stop it, it could policy for the better…as it did briefly in the aftermath of the Vietnam War. Yet people like Rosser love to condemn other people’s behavior while tacitly accepting what the US has done. As a result, so nothing will change.
Ego much, JH? Perhaps you, as the self appointed reigning expert on American atrocities, should establish a timeline for the discussion since you’re the only one here who claims he has any familiarity with the details.
Seems no one here, other than you, has any background on the subject.
Oh, the woeful burden of history. Your shoulders must be exhausted from the load.
Curious, though, exactly when have you—with your extensive knowledge of such matters—criticized Putin and Russia for atrocious behaviors?
Oh, forgot. If you’d made such comments, you’d be unemployed.
JohnH,
I did so numerous times and upfront opposed the invasion. But i am not going to go digging thought old blog posts or newspaper columns (yes, I wrote several of those) to show here. You are just lying again. Sorry, you do not have a leg to stand on with this. Your efforts to somehow say none of us should be like you and never criticize Putin are simply disgusting, you kmmoral wretch.
JH, I’m guessing after you wrote this, you cranked up the old
high fi , put on the well worn LP, and lip synched to Man of La Mancha while standing boldly in front of a full length mirror.
Your destiny called. Again.
Cervantes would have had great fun mocking US pretensions of setting a moral standard, just as he skewered Christian bigotry, Spanish racism and (gently) pointed out the hypocrisy of the Inquisition. But in Quijote, he mocks the testosterone marinated warrior who, like the United States, anoints himself the world’s policeman, constantly deludes himself, and ends up embarrassing himself in countless pointless and futile conflicts. Yet you have to wonder who ends up looking more ridiculous, Quijote or the parochial, educated society around him.
I have read Quixote twice…in Spanish. It’s a great read.
Your destiny called and you went. I’ll assume you also read it in Russian.
Viva Don JuanH! Es un hombre con mucho valor, un estudiante de atrocidads de los Estados Unidos, pero no los atrocidades de Putin.
Es DonJuanH un imposter o simplemente un zonzo?
i would have picked a marine battle from vietnam to name a ship for…..