Risk and Uncertainty before the Open

VIX jumped on Friday; the Economic Policy Uncertainty index rose on Saturday.

Figure 1: VIX (blue, left scale), Economic Policy Uncertainty index (thin pink, right scale), 7 day centered moving average (bold pink, right scale). Source: CBOE via FRED, policyuncertainty.com accessed 2/13/2022, and author’s calculations. 

The VIX and the EPU don’t move together that much (R-squared of about 0.4 over the past 6 years).

63 thoughts on “Risk and Uncertainty before the Open

  1. macroduck

    Zelensky has invited Biden to visit Kyev, pronto, to aid in de-escalation. Europe will have had time for additional developments before U.S. cash markets open.

    If Monday is bad for risk assets, it will presumably be good for safe haven assets. Interestingly, Friday reversed Thursday’s rise in Treasury yields. Haven’t heard anything from Fed folk about the implication of war in Ukraine for policy. I doubt Fed officials would want to stir that pot, or that the White House would want the Fed to comment.

    1. pgl

      Zelensky seems to be telling his citizens that Russia will invade on February 16. I hope he is wrong but I fear he is correct.

  2. Moses Herzog

    If you believe in the power of prayer. Pray for the people of Ukraine tonight.




    First pray for no violence. no war. Then pray that for every one of God’s chosen people, and resisting Ukrainians taken down, they take 20+ lives of those choosing to initiate the violence. Christians owe a lot to the Jews. And if you’re not religious, fine. Just ask yourself if the life which attracts so many immigrants to this nation and provides them with a better life than most other nations, has any connection to Judeo-Christian values. Be honest with yourself when answering that. We owe it to pray for these people and do what we can if the worst happens.

    1. Bruce Hall

      You need a little historical perspective. Ukraine was part of Russia for about 500 years before being split off with the Soviet Union dissolved. Russia has been adamant for years that it only wants guarantees that Ukraine will not become part of NATO, but we’ve seen more than a decade of Russia being made the bogeyman for our political elite to generate both fear and support for internal consumption. If you want to disparage another politician, you claim he is in bed with the Russians. Then they claim that the Russians are a major threat to Europe and we need to expand NATO to counter that. All of that leads us to where we are today.

      The solution is fairly obvious, but politically unpalatable for U.S. politicians: a neutrality treaty in which Ukraine pledges to be neutral in all disputes between Russia, other European nations, and the U.S., with all being signatories to such. Now one slight wrinkle that could save face for U.S. politicians might be an insistence on the inclusion of Belarus as another treaty-bound neutral nation. This would provide a military geographic buffer between Russia and most of the rest of Europe and provide a verifiable and enforceable situation that comforts both Russia and the rest of Europe. Neither Ukraine nor Belarus are really likely candidates for inclusion to NATO even though a lot of hot air has been released about Ukraine and NATO for a couple of decades and even less so now that Russia has shown its willingness to enforce a separation between NATO and Ukraine.

      To think that Biden has meaningful options that worry Putin & Co. is a bit shallow. The Russians are not driven by fears of economic sanctions and, in fact, would be able to easily retaliate against Europe which has become energy dependent on Russia thanks to their naive “climate change” policies. Russia could easily divert its oil and natural gas supplies to China and leave Europe literally out in the cold. While some argue that China would not support Russia (CNN), that is a very myopic view of the political world. China is being far less coy about its relationship with China, a relationship that Biden continues to foster with his nonsensical responses to the current situation. China may not prefer a Russia-Ukraine conflict, but it’s obvious to China which choice they would make… and that would not be to support any US-NATO sanctions.

      1. pgl

        Bruce Hall – Putin’s pet poodle. Or is your real name Tucker Carlson? England rules over a lot of lands including Ireland for generations but that does not make it right.

        1. Bruce Hall


          England rules over a lot of lands including Ireland for generations but that does not make it right.

          Oh, my naive commenter. “Right” is in the eyes of the beholder or there wouldn’t be so much anger at truckers protesting for their right to choose their health options. The Rus were spread all over northern and Eastern Europe. They fought all of the time. The Normans and Saxons and Celts and Vikings were always in each other’s playpens. And you get pompous about how history played out in the context of current borders? Come on, man!

          But you knew that, didn’t you? Because, after all, pgl knows all about history and conflict. But in case you aren’t positive about Ukraine, you can look up its history.

          1. noneconomist

            Now , Bruce, you’re an expert on Ukrainian history?
            Pray tell. Since even before the Russian Revolution (and the mass collectivization shortly thereafter) how have Ukrainians reacted to being (as you stated) “part of Russia “?
            I have an old History of Russia text (H.J. Ellison) that says “Ukrainian nationalism began to take firm root among intellectuals for the first time in the 1870’s, following the founding of the Ukrainian Society.”
            Other societies formed with objections clearly stated to “…the excessive Great Russian -dominated centralism of the empire.”
            Eventually, these societies were not tolerated and notes Ellison, “The printing of Ukrainian books and music was prohibited and it was forbidden to produce Ukrainian plays in theaters.” Political commentary was often repressed, making the growth of Ukrainian nationalism difficult.That was the 1870’s and 1880’s. Skip to the late 1920’s and 1930’s and the misery index and satisfaction with government certainly does not decrease.
            But, Ukraine was part of Russia, right? If not a happy, satisfied part for, oh, at least the past century.

      2. pgl

        Among all of this babble – let’s focus on this stupid sentence:

        “The solution is fairly obvious, but politically unpalatable for U.S. politicians: a neutrality treaty in which Ukraine pledges to be neutral in all disputes between Russia, other European nations, and the U.S., with all being signatories to such.”

        Dude – Germany has no intention on invading Russia. And even if it did – Ukraine’s army would not be the difference maker. But this is the standard line coming from Putin. So enjoy your little bone Brucie.

        1. Bruce Hall


          wtf are you babbling about? Germany invading Russia? You seem to be out of phase by 80 years.

          Biden & Co. and the Democratic Party press created a “crisis” about “The Russians are coming; the Russians are coming” even though the Ukraine government said they were not all that concerned. Now the Russians are beginning to pack their bags and going back home and Biden’s fans are saying, “Biden showed ’em.” If Russia had wanted to invade, it would have and Biden would look like a fool waving the white flag of meaningless sanctions.

          So, does that work for the Chinese, too? The U.S. completed a large two-carrier task force exercise in the South China Sea. This was obviously in getting ready for an imminent attack on China, right? So, does President Xi now say, “We showed ’em”?

          Stick to your Xbox and day trading.

          1. noneconomist

            Maybe Russia paid attention to the former President when in September 2019, he said alongside Zelensky “I gave you tank busters that President Obama was sending you pillows and sheets.”
            From Defense News, 9/25/19: “The latest equipment was more of the same aid the U.S. previously supplied aimed in helping Ukraine monitor and secure its borders… sniper rifles, rocket-propelled grenade launchers, counter-artillery radar, tactical drones to go along with the Javelin, the “fire and forget” anti-tank missile..
            If Russia wanted to invade, it might have understood that such an invasion would not have been as simple as you state.

      3. Barkley Rosser

        Bruce Hall,

        Why did you dare spout a bunch of historically incorrect garbage here knowing I am here to clean your worthless clock? What a moron. Yeah, “you need a little historical perspective.”

        “Ukraine was part of Russia for about 500 years…” No, ignorant fool. I suppose you think that the Kyivan Rus period counts for that. Sorry, but despite the “Rus” in the name there were neither Russians nor Ukrainians around then as part of that. The rulers of that entity were Viking Varangians who spoke a Germanic language. Most of their underlings were Turkic Khazars, many of whom converted to Judaism. Russia took control of part of Uktaine in 1654, which would give you a period of tsarist rule over part of Ukraine of 263 years. But portions of western Uktaine were not part of that and only would fall under Soviet control by the end of WW II, then to become part of the Ukrainian SSR, which had its own separate seat in the UN.

        Then we have poor Russia, being treated as a “bogeyman” for the past decade. Well, Bruce, there is a reason for that. It is the only nation on the planet that invaded and conquered and annexed a portion of a neighboring nation during that decade, in its case, Crimea. Not only is this a violation of the UN Charter, but it also more specifically violated the 1994 Budapest Accord of 1994 in which Russia specifically promised to respect both the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine when it gave up nuclear weapons. Oh, poor Russia! People treating it like a bogeyman! Well, Bruce, that was bogeyman behavior not matched by any other nation on the planet. Are you unaware of these facts?

        And you think it is not nice to make a fuss about politicians “being in bed with Russians.” Gee, the Trump campaign was found to have 105 links to Russians in the Mueller Report. In my view probably the single statement D. Trump made before he even ran that showed he should not be allowed anywhere near any political office was when he was asked about Putin having political critics assassinated. Trump said that this showed “Putin is strong” and then proceeded to note how the US did not have a perfect record. It would later come out that he was trying to get a hotel built in Moscow, and we know that in 2009 the Russians bailed his whole organization out financially. But, sssshh, let us not talk about US politicians in bed with Putin!

        AS it is, the US is not declaring that “we need to expand NATO.” What has been declared that the Helsinki Accords do allow nations to join whatever otganization they wish to. So Russia has its own “Warsaw Pact lite” CSTO, which six nations have chosen to join: Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Ukraine is free to join that organization if it so chooses, although anybody in their right mind can understand that they are not all that keen on joining an organization run by a nation that has invaded them, annexed their territory, and then supported separatist movements within their nation. Like nations like Poland and the Baltic States, they have clearly wanted to join NATO because, gosh, they actually have a legitimate fear of being invaded by, well, Russia. As it is, however, it has been widely announced they are not in a position to get into NATO, art least not in the near future. But NATO itself is not pushing eastward, any more than it did when nations like Poland and the Baltic states joined. While Putin and Russian commentators like to put it out there that the US pushed those poor nations into joining NATO. But the hard fact is that they wanted in and were kept out for quite dome time before they were let in eventually. I mean, they also could join the Russia-led CSTO, like Belarus has. But, gee, they do not seem to be interested in it.

        There is quite a bit of other seriously stupid and ignorant things in this comment of yours, but others have commented on much of that. Really, you should be a bit more careful about coming in here and spouting totally stupid and wrong things about Russian and Ukrainian history here. You will get humiliated.

  3. Moses Herzog

    S&P mini-futures aren’t a bad way to gauge these things. Showing up right now at 0:27 eastern time 0.28%. By that standard nothing terribly dramatic. I think one of the German leaders is supposed to meet Putin soon.

  4. Moses Herzog

    The most entertaining and laughter inducing visual graphic I have seen probably in the last 3 months:

    You might ask “Why is it funny??” Because it’s so true, and I know American companies are so dumb, they will continue on signing up for the blood bath into the foreseeable future. It’s like watching those old ladies with the grotesquely large hoop earrings, duffle bag sized purses, 1960s hairstyles keep stuffing the casino slot machines telling you “I’ve made a lot of money doing this, you just have to get a rhythm with the machine”

    Or maybe like the female UFC fighter who can’t understand why her manager wants to call off the fight with 7/8ths of her left ear detached from her head.

  5. Anonymous

    red army would face huge problems supplying/fueling mechanized forces ‘driving’ through ukraine….

    harder logistics problems for heavy vehicle dependent us forces.

    the euro part of nato can not leave their drive way.

    biden’s war is going to be interesting.

    us markets are all over bought, why does anyone need a putin excuse to take money off the table?

        1. Barkley Rosser


          “statement of fact”? What fact? That VP Harris supports replacing lead water pipes? Yes, she does support doing that. Or is the supposed fact that somheow she thinks this is how to reduce uncertainty in US financial markets and even deter Putin from invading Ukraine? Sorry, but I am unaware of her making any sorts of such claims. Frankly you are completely incoherent here on this bit.

      1. baffling

        i must agree. we have a town with an entire generation of young people who will be subject to reduced mental and physical capabilities in michigan due to lead in pipes. and this has been repeated over and over around the country. the fact that most of these people are from minority and poor communities makes the comment from tshaw even more morbid.
        tshaw, rather than try to score political points on this issue, you should simply come out and say yes, this is a problem that requires immediate fixing. period. i don’t even care who is at fault with the issue. it simply needs to be fixed. period.

  6. ltr

    February 11, 2022

    Harris Says Replacing Lead Pipes Is a Priority, Despite Limited Funding
    Some civil rights leaders have grown frustrated with the lack of action behind administration proposals that would help Black and Latino communities.
    By Zolan Kanno-Youngs

    NEWARK — Schkeema Troutman had just started describing the many difficulties of trying to raise a family in a city with high levels of lead in its drinking water when Vice President Kamala Harris noticed the mother of three was not being heard.

    Ms. Troutman’s microphone was not working, limiting her voice to nearly a whisper at a round-table discussion here on Friday. So Ms. Harris stood and handed her microphone over to amplify Ms. Troutman’s story.

    “You have so many different things to worry about,” Ms. Troutman said of owning a home near lead service lines, and the dozens of people in the room could hear her.

    “That’s the thing,” Ms. Harris responded. “You should not have to worry about that.”

    The brief exchange highlighted the vice president’s aim in traveling to Newark, which the administration views as a model of how a community can overcome water contamination after years of neglect. But for Ms. Harris and the White House, the trip was also an opportunity to amplify issues directly affecting underserved communities, particularly amid rising anxiety from civil rights advocates and grass-roots organizations after seeing President Biden’s sprawling proposals centered on racial equity slimmed during negotiations with a divided Congress.

    The White House has made removing every lead pipe within 10 years in the United States a centerpiece of its plan to address racial disparities and environmental issues in the wake of water contamination crises in recent years from Newark to Flint, Mich. As many as 10 million lead service lines still deliver water to schools, offices, homes and day care centers throughout the country….

    1. ltr

      What is interesting and important is the critical extent to which clean in-home water is essential to health and poverty alleviation, but neglected in development planning. Bolivia is an important example, where the work on water for indigenous communities by Evo Morales, who would become the first indigenous President of Bolivia, was ridiculed in the New York Times and by a prominent development economist at the University of California. Clean in-home water has been a critical, successful part of the poverty alleviation program in China.

    2. ltr


      February 10, 2022

      Easy access to clean water sweetens bitter memories of rural Chinese families

      BEIJING — Fu Shuming has made a habit of smiling conservatively due to the awkwardness he feels about his stained teeth, which he has had for decades due to a lack of access to clean water in his village in north China.

      “People in our village are often unwilling to smile from ear to ear because our teeth are stained yellow,” said Fu, 83, from Kushuiying Village in Hebei Province.

      Kushuiying translates to “town of bitter water,” named due to the high-fluoride groundwater in the area. The water in the village used to contain three times more fluoride than the standard for drinking water, which caused permanent damage to people’s teeth and health.

      Like Fu, about 9.75 million residents in parts of rural China who used to wrestle with high-fluoride groundwater now have easy access to clean water.

      With tap water now accessible to 84 percent of rural households, the various hardships rural Chinese residents have been through to fight water shortages or substandard water quality over past decades are now history….

    3. ltr


      September 30, 2020

      Farewell to bitter water: 470,000 residents of Jiashi County in Xinjiang get clean water

      Geni Abudreyim, 42, is a villager in Jiashi County, northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. He is a mason and likes to play drums in his spare time. He usually performs traditional Uygur music with villagers.

      “Now we have safe water, which is clean and sweet. I wrote a song and sing it in public,” said Geni.

      Jiashi County is located on the edge of the Taklamakan Desert. Previously, people had to drink bitter water, which would often make them sick. After nearly five years of research, a source for drinking water was finally chosen from the snow water of glaciers melting on Mount Muztagata.  Almost 100 researchers got involved in surveys before the safe drinking water project kicked off in May 2019.

      This year, the project has helped 470,000 people get access to safe drinking water, which marks a complete solution to the problem of drinking water safety for the poor in Xinjiang.  All residents in Jiashi County have complete access to safe tap water. According to Liu Hu, director of Jiashi County Water Resources Bureau in Kashgar, “Surface water for human consumption will reduce groundwater extraction. Reducing the extraction of groundwater is very restorative and helpful to the ecosystem.” …

    4. Anonymous

      progressives in power!

      we have to scratch for lead remediation!

      plenty of money to send stinger manpads and javelin manport atw’s to ukraine

      what’s it cost to keep us troops in nato 76 years after the occupation and 30 years after reunified geramny?

      decide about them by what is important…..

  7. Barkley Rosser

    So, let me announce that Menxie Chinn will be presenting a seminar at James Madison University this coming Wednesday at 4 PM EST. It will be a purely virtual session. If you are interested in participating, please send me an email request at rosserjb@jmu.edu , and I shall send you the link.

    If you are here under one of the many fake names people here use, you do not have reveal that ID. Of course if your email address has your name in it, I shall see your name, but will not know which fake name, if any, you use. As it is, this is open to the public, although most of those in attendance will be JMU econ profs, probably a fee students and some faculty from a couple of other departments maybe.

    He will be speaking on a paper he posted here some time ago, “The New Fama Puzzle.” I am looking forward to it, and any of you would be most welcome, an opportunity to see Mrnzie (and me) in action.

  8. Moses Herzog

    This seems like a pretty good graphic of where Russian troops are around Ukraine. Kind of where you might guess.

    Interesting Belarus has no compunction letting Russian troops squat on the southern portion of their land, and even arguably southeast Romania. I’m not sure if that’s technically Romania, it looks like maybe a military port location. But for all intents and purposes that is southeast Romania. If you Google it they call it “the breakaway Republic of Moldova”, so what do I know?? Apparently not much.

    1. Barkley Rosser


      I am not sure what troops you are referring to,= but Belarus does not touch any of the following, not even remotely close: Romania (a member of NATO), Moldova, or Transniestria. The latter two were part of Romania prior to 1945 but became a republic of the USSR in 1945, becoming independent in 1991, with Moldova the lowest real per capita income nation in Europe, having fallen below Albania on that measure.

      The term “breakaway republic of Moldova” is generally applied to what is also known as Transneistria. This is territory widely accepted to be part of Moldova, but is de facto independent and recognized by Russia as such. It has maintained its de facto independence by having Russian troops sitting in it. But that has been the case for several decades now, as is the case for the separatist republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, widely viewed as parts of Georgia, and also the separatists republics in eastern Ukraine, although the Russian forces there are not openly recognized, and Russia does not officially recognize their independence.

      Transniestria is an area with many native Russian speakers and Russia has supported its de facto independence for decades. The troops there have been there for decades and did not just arrive there and certainly not due to any decision or action on the part of Belarus. Those troops have nothing to do with the latest batch of Russian troops in Belarus there for exercises, which media in Russia say will be removed shortly. What Transniestria does border is Ukraine to its east, but prior to 1945 it was the far eastern part of Romania.

      1. Moses Herzog

        “Those troops have nothing to do with the latest batch of Russian troops in Belarus there for exercises,”.

        “There for exercises” Surely EVEN Menzie thinks are you being a dumb ass on that statement. Do you see anything at all weird about where they are located for those “exercises” in Belarus?? You know Barkley, I’ve always viewed tenure as a largely good policy/law. You’ve really got me rethinking the whole damned tenure thing.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Oh my, Moses, you are really losing it. Just where did Menzie say that he thinks I am a dumb ass on this?

          Do keep in mind I am the one here with access to Russian media. That has now been blaring for several days that the troops will go home after the exercises are done, and exercises are exactly what they are doing now. This has more recently been reinforced by statements from Putin in press conferences, such as the one just held after the visit of German Chancellor Scholze.

          There is not going to be an invasion, even if some of the details of what Zelensky and Ukraine may agree to are not fully settled, and Victoria Nuland has been shooting her mouth off too much, somebody I wish was not part of this administration.

          Oh, and I am now going to host Menzie for his seminar at JMU, although according to you he thinks I am a “dumb ass,” Moses. Are you absolutely sure about just who is the dumb ass here?

  9. Barkley Rosser

    I have just heard from my wife that in Moscow it is being teported that Putin has announced the end of the “successful” exercises in Belarus and that troops will be withdrawn. I suspect a deal was cut on Saturday in the Biden/Putin phone call in which it was agreed that the US advisers in Ukraine would be withdrawn, which is happening right now. Russian media had gone on and on about US troops supposedly being in Ukraine and threatening an invasion.

    This may be over. Helps that they are now providing wall to wall coverage of the Winter Olympics, where the Russians are doing quite well.

      1. Barkley Rosser


        Indeed. This is one of those times where I am kind of holding my breath, because it is clear this has not leaked into the markets at all, which have closed now. Oil and gold are up, with Brent over $96, and stocks down again. I would think there would be some smart Russian traders moving on the oil market based on this, if nothing else. But I have a feeling there may be an agreement to sort of do a bunch of this kind of quietly, perhaps as part of the saving of Putin’s face part of it. What has been publicly announced is the withdrawal of US advisers from Ukraine, which most here think of as not being a big deal, but given all the loud attention paid to them in the Russian media preciously, that may be a much bigger deal than many have thought.

        This may be a case of markets not being on top of things, although I am surprised not more leakage out of Russia on this, especially in the oil market, where they are big players for sure. We shall see.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Press conference in Moscow by Putin and Lavrov seems to support scaling back with lots of talk. Hopefully meeting later today in Moscow with German Chancellor Scholze will nail down loose details for a clear deal. But I am continuing now to be optimistic.

          Curiously I think it helps that the Olympic committee has let Russian star skater Valieva skate. Putin really has his ego tied up with Olympics as bad behavior in 2008 and 2014 shows. Letting her skate in Beijing allows him to continue to bask in Winter Olympic glories, thus distracting from the apparently impending pullback from an invasion of Ukraine. Olympic coverage in Russia is wall to wall, and Russia is doing well, second in total medals now, only behind Norway.

      2. Gregory Bott

        The fact they stopped the invasion which was supposed to be on Sunday, is big news. My guess Ukraine allows Russia to annex part of the Russian supporting areas………..and Putin can return home like a conquering hero. Ukraine gets rid of a headache. The media is lagging behind like always.

        Oil is going to take a beating by Summer.

      3. Anonymous

        seems jake sullivan is a lot less genghis khan after the saturday phone call……..

        no longer shouting ‘ invasion by wednesday’ in the middle of the xi’s olyimpics….

        putin sees it better to watch biden fail over something else.

        120k troops spread all over???

        war has principles and divided forces is not one.

  10. macroduck


    Has it occurred to you that some of the comments on your blog have earmarks of disinformation? Kopits advertises trafficking with Bannon, who lives qnd breathers disinformation, so it’s birds of a feather in his case, but he’s he’s hardly the only commenter who pulls out standard disinformation trickery. For instance, a number of your more partisan commenters have taken to questioning your knowledge and intellectual performance, just as they do Biden’s appointees. Oh, right! You were once a presidential appointee. Democratic president, as I recall.

    I don’t know what your readership stats look like, nor do I have any notion of the extent of your blog’s influence, so I don’t know why you are so blessed wih hypocrits and trolls, but you are. And while some, like rsm, can barely string a sentence together, others put a lot of work into derailing reasonable discussions.

    Look at Rick Stryker’s latest. He spews and spews and spews text, building up to conclusions about your understanding of “biig data” which are not supported by his text, but that’s OK. That’s how disinformation works. He must have made a substantial argument – just look a all those words!

    I don’t know why you’ve been chosen for this infestation, but it’s pretty clear it’s not just random bad luck.

    1. pgl

      THE RICK has been at this for quite a while. And yes Princeton Steve is selling his “publications” so he gets to chat with Bannon as well as Fox and Friends. But let’s not leave off Bruce Hall who seems to be Steno Sue for Kelly Anne Conway.

    2. pgl

      “I don’t know why you’ve been chosen for this infestation, but it’s pretty clear it’s not just random bad luck.”

      Mark Thoma’s economic blog also attracted a lot of rightwing nutcases. My favorite was Patrick R. Sullivan who kept getting banned from DeLong’s place only to pop up under new names. Given how easy it is to set up a new name – it could be that some of Mark’s trolls have migrated here.

    3. pgl

      This is funny – Patrick R. Sullivan never took down his incredibly worthless rightwing blog:


      Literally thousands of utterly worthless rants from 2004 to 2009 and he NEVER got a single comment. No – it is a waste of your time to go back and read his utter stupidity. Just like reading the blog posts of Princeton Steve are a complete waste of time.

    4. Gregory Bott

      Well duh. Bannon, Kopitvitz and Stryker all have ties to neoconservative global zionism. There is nothing new under the sun. They want a world run by billionaires. Rollerball come to life. They use cultural “differences” between Europeans to strike discord(and there are many sides to that). Explain human migrant flows without blaming capitalism(which is to blame). A con is a con.

      I think lately though, they have been off. Blocking commercial access routes and blowing up the Ukraine thing as “Bidens war” is bad PR. Sometimes just shutting up is the right thing to do. A lot of the counterculture is getting tired of Bannon, Rogen(another elitist who’s ties to global finance are way understated) and Randian elites. We see everything they do. Every con they try and push.

      1. Barkley Rosser


        Well, duh, how long have you handed out anti-Semitic bs? Is this a recent development, or have you been into this sort of slime since you were a kid? Did you get this sort of garbage from your parents?

    5. Steven Kopits

      Duckie –

      I will talk to anyone. I would even talk to you. Even pgl, once he sobers up. You have that liberal conceit in your mind that we should not be allowed to talk to certain people because, you know, they are not like us. I don’t ascribe to that view. A good portion of my readers are on the hard left. I have presented at the Left Forum in New York, which is way granola left. I have been interviewed multiple times on NPR and quoted in the FT and New Yorker. No one accused me of being in bed with anyone when I did that. I am sorry that you are afraid to talk to people who are not like you. I am not afraid to do so.

      If you are interested in my interview with Bannon, you can find it here, min 28:00-36:30. I introduce the term ‘Little League conservative’, and I think that largely describes my sentiment. In any event, if you’re not afraid of melting, then go ahead and listen and make up your own mind.

      As for ‘Let Putin buy Crimea’, it has 57,500 views on zerohedge (originally on The American Thinker). What did you accomplish this weekend?

      1. Steven Kopits

        By the way, how would you describe my analysis in Putin buy Crimea? I would say it’s once again using markets and prices to solve a problem. Is it conservative? Is it liberal? I don’t really know. It is about trying to find a path forward without the horrors of war without being either pro-Ukrainian or anti-Russian.

        1. Moses Herzog

          Judging from “Princeton”Kopits teenage girl gushing and giggles over his date with Steve Bannon, one can only presume that had he lived in Germany during a certain time span, meeting with Joseph Goebbels would have ranked on a personal level as the highlight of Kopits’ life. I just want to know if Bannon remembered to bring Kopits a corsage and if Kopits had enough self-restraint not to “put out” on the first date. Once Bannon’s white supremacist associates find out he’s easy, Kopits could be on “the downhill slide” and may need gallons of penicillin.

      2. pgl

        “I will talk to anyone.”

        Especially racist traitors like Putin. You would sell out your own mother for a little attention. Zerohedge and the American Thinker? Just wow!

    6. Anonymous

      anything posted that is incorrect is easily discovered,

      why are you worrying?

      or if your mind is bruised stop reading certain persons

  11. pgl

    This story on Tesla’s profits in 2021 and the lack of US taxable income has attracted a little heat from the corporate Homers on LinkedIn:


    One Homer claimed that Tesla is declaring US income but living off past net operating losses. Of course this Homer failed to check out the 10-K filing which clearly notes nearly all of Tesla’s world profits were sourced abroad. I doubt it was sourced in tax havens given how much foreign tax was paid on the foreign income, which is really close to the 15% tax rate Tesla notes it was granted by China.

    I wonder if Princeton Steve has decided to post his ignorant rants on LinkedIn now given how stupid the LinkedIn chatter has gotten. Of course the real story seems to be something akin to an American company is doing business in evil China, which one would thing would have Princeton Steve screaming from the top of his soap box.

    1. macroduck

      The ability of foreign “experts” and associated pundits to forecast is notoriously poor. The “superforecaster” project was, at least for a time, better at forecasting than expert opinion. Don’t know whether that record has been maintained with its institutionalization as “Good Judgment”:


      (Don’t be misled by the URL.)

      For what it’s worth, Good Judgment has the following on Russia invading Ukraine:

      As of 14 February 2022, Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters see a 41% probability that a Russian invasion of Ukraine will not take place before June 2022. By “invasion” we mean Russia “sending ground national military forces into Ukraine without consent from the Ukrainian government in Kyiv.”

  12. ltr

    Well duh. Bannon, Kopit—- and Stryker all have ties to neoconservative global —-.

    [ This is profoundly anti-Semitic remark. Completely calculated and intolerable. ]

    1. Barkley Rosser


      I agree. There was more.

      So, Gregory B., are you an anti-Semite? You certainly had several other lines in your piece falling into that category.

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