Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI, through 12/3; and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 11/26.
Figure 1: Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) Weekly Economic Index (blue), Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for US plus 2% trend (green). Source: NY Fed via FRED, OECD, WECI, all accessed 12/8, and author’s calculations.
The deceleration has been pretty consistent over time, and across indicators. The OECD Weekly Tracker, which shows a marked decline, is only available through 11/26. This series — based upon a big data approach — shows substantial variation over time, in my experience. Helpfully, they provide a 95% high/low numbers. In Figure 2, I plot this for the latest vintage, along with select previous vintages.
Figure 2: Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker through 11/26 (tan), high/low (light tan), through 11/12 (green), through 10/15 (pink), through 8/20 (dark blue), all year-on-year, %. Source: OECD, various releases.
Given these data, I’d want to wait before claiming negative y/y growth. However, what is clear is the US economy’s growth rate is decelerating on a year-on-year basis.