23 thoughts on “At Business Cycle Frequencies, Macro Dominates in Trade Flows”
pgl
In case the Usual Suspects don’t get it – Setser lays it out nicely:
“And the yuan—after appreciating in real terms in the first four months of 2018—has fallen sharply in the last five weeks, both against the dollar and against the basket….In very broad terms, the yuan’s value against the dollar is now back at the level where it was pegged back in 2008, 2009, and the first part of 2010. The appreciation that occurred in the Obama Administration’s first term has been reversed.”
Let’s go back to 2006 when one could reasonably argue China was manipulating its currency aka making it weak to increase its exports to the U.S. and lower its imports from the U.S. Well things dramatically changed after Obama became President. Only a liar or a fool would continue to talk about currency manipulation and of course the lying fool known as Donald Trump kept making this claim.
Now Trump is President and his little trade war was supposed to increase U.S. net exports. But it is not working out so well. And to add to his woes – the Chinese are back to devaluing their currency.
PeakDishonesty loves to put this in terms of a game of poker. Well guess what – Trump sucks at poker. Hey – can I get an invite to the White House to play poker with the President? I’ll make a fortune!
ottnott
pgl said: Well guess what – Trump sucks at poker. Hey – can I get an invite to the White House to play poker with the President? I’ll make a fortune!
Play him in Vegas. At the White House: he will supply the deck; he will supply the dealer; he will get 9 cards against 4 for you; and the Fox & Friends panel will decide who won each hand.
pgl
I’ll bring my hood – which will enforce real rules. Trump will have no chance.
PeakTrader
“Stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday after President Donald Trump reportedly obtained concessions from the European Union to avoid a trade war.”
PeakTrader
“President Donald Trump said he and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker agreed to work toward “zero tariffs” and “zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods.””
You’ve been played again. They didn’t agree to anything concrete, just an agreement to “work toward” some goal that they all know will never happen. Do you think Trump will give up the 54 year old US tariffs on light truck imports? Not a chance. If they work towards anything, it will be the status quo before Trump’s tariff tantrum. In other words, we’ll be back to where we were before Trump started all this nonsense. You must have gotten your degree from Trump University.
pgl
We should call him PeakGraspingAtStraws. So gullible!
pgl
Agreed to work? Like Rocket Man has agreed to get rid of his nukes. Don’t count those chickens before they hatch.
pgl
No link? Well guess what – I found the CNBC story which notes:
“The report comes as Trump met with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to discuss trade issues.Trade relations between the U.S. and EU had been strained in recent months. In June, the U.S. president threatened tariffs on imported cars from the European Union. Last week, the EU’s Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said that if the U.S. imposed these levies, it would be “very unfortunate,” and added that the bloc had prepared its own list of countermeasures.”
I see why Peaky failed to provide a link. Trump caved to Juncker which of course is goods news for the market but bad news for Team Trump.
2slugbaits
The European take on the Trump/Juncker WH sideshow is a little different than PeakTrader’s. Here’s a link to the German public network Deutsche Welle:
Here’s a key point: Both sides will hold off from imposing any further tariffs, and the EU will reassess exisiting tariffs on US steel and aluminum as long as trade talks remain ongoing.
Got that? The EU will “reassess existing tariffs” while Trump agrees to halting US tariffs. In other words, Trump agrees to hold off on the 25% tariff threat and effectively agrees to reset things back to where they were before he started the trade war. So what did the Trump tariff temper tantrum accomplish? In the end, a lot of noise and fury signaling nothing. The Art of the Deal indeed!
CoRev Please note that all time stamps on the blog are Pacific time.
pgl
CoRev
July 25, 2018 at 4:44 pm
Yes CoRev is a liar!
Seriously – CoRev has the ability to lower this to 3 year olds tossing sand in each other’s face. His mother must be so proud – NOT!
pgl
Gee – Peak’s Minnie Me cleans up Peak’s usual mess. Well done.
Not Trampis
The Chinese have the advantage because their exchange does not float Thus the Government can devalue pr revalue however given the $US floats it depreciates and appreciates on its own terms i.e the government can do nothing in reality to change a currency’s level.
I admit hate people using devaluation instead of depreciation in most cases. I loved international economics in third year
pgl
China has another advantage – advisers who actually understand international economics as well as macroeconomics.
Trump has Kudlow and Ross. We’re doomed!
PeakTrader
China’s economy is a joke.
Either you cannot understand economics or you’re a communist defender.
Most likely both, from what I keep hearing.
pgl
Let’s take a look at real GDP for China over the past generation:
PeakStupidity calls this economy a joke but praises the Trump “boom”. Seriously – I do not think Peaky will ever pass preK!
baffling
“China’s economy is a joke.”
and you can defend this statement with accurate and real facts? still living in the st ronny decade of “communists” i see. what would you call a $12 billion dollar subsidy to the ag industry? free market capitalism? what a loser.
pgl
The only joke here is you PeakPathetic. Do you not hear everyone else laughing? They are laughing at you not BTW. But do babble on even as your poor mother hides her face in shame.
PeakTrader
Pgl, you continue to prove your shallow and narrow understanding of economics.
I expect better from someone studying economics in high school.
Growth-at-any-cost can be very costly.
You have no clue.
baffling
peak is simply following his komrade orders to incite nationalistic fevers. he is such a sucker for the kremlin propaganda machine.
Robert
Lot of pointless bitterness here.
A pity for those interested in learning.
In case the Usual Suspects don’t get it – Setser lays it out nicely:
“And the yuan—after appreciating in real terms in the first four months of 2018—has fallen sharply in the last five weeks, both against the dollar and against the basket….In very broad terms, the yuan’s value against the dollar is now back at the level where it was pegged back in 2008, 2009, and the first part of 2010. The appreciation that occurred in the Obama Administration’s first term has been reversed.”
Let’s go back to 2006 when one could reasonably argue China was manipulating its currency aka making it weak to increase its exports to the U.S. and lower its imports from the U.S. Well things dramatically changed after Obama became President. Only a liar or a fool would continue to talk about currency manipulation and of course the lying fool known as Donald Trump kept making this claim.
Now Trump is President and his little trade war was supposed to increase U.S. net exports. But it is not working out so well. And to add to his woes – the Chinese are back to devaluing their currency.
PeakDishonesty loves to put this in terms of a game of poker. Well guess what – Trump sucks at poker. Hey – can I get an invite to the White House to play poker with the President? I’ll make a fortune!
pgl said:
Well guess what – Trump sucks at poker. Hey – can I get an invite to the White House to play poker with the President? I’ll make a fortune!
Play him in Vegas. At the White House: he will supply the deck; he will supply the dealer; he will get 9 cards against 4 for you; and the Fox & Friends panel will decide who won each hand.
I’ll bring my hood – which will enforce real rules. Trump will have no chance.
“Stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday after President Donald Trump reportedly obtained concessions from the European Union to avoid a trade war.”
“President Donald Trump said he and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker agreed to work toward “zero tariffs” and “zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods.””
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/C0C6EB25-896F-481A-905F-437EDA6F05D4
You’ve been played again. They didn’t agree to anything concrete, just an agreement to “work toward” some goal that they all know will never happen. Do you think Trump will give up the 54 year old US tariffs on light truck imports? Not a chance. If they work towards anything, it will be the status quo before Trump’s tariff tantrum. In other words, we’ll be back to where we were before Trump started all this nonsense. You must have gotten your degree from Trump University.
We should call him PeakGraspingAtStraws. So gullible!
Agreed to work? Like Rocket Man has agreed to get rid of his nukes. Don’t count those chickens before they hatch.
No link? Well guess what – I found the CNBC story which notes:
“The report comes as Trump met with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to discuss trade issues.Trade relations between the U.S. and EU had been strained in recent months. In June, the U.S. president threatened tariffs on imported cars from the European Union. Last week, the EU’s Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said that if the U.S. imposed these levies, it would be “very unfortunate,” and added that the bloc had prepared its own list of countermeasures.”
I see why Peaky failed to provide a link. Trump caved to Juncker which of course is goods news for the market but bad news for Team Trump.
The European take on the Trump/Juncker WH sideshow is a little different than PeakTrader’s. Here’s a link to the German public network Deutsche Welle:
https://www.dw.com/en/donald-trump-and-jean-claude-juncker-talk-trade-tariffs/a-44825737
Here’s a key point: Both sides will hold off from imposing any further tariffs, and the EU will reassess exisiting tariffs on US steel and aluminum as long as trade talks remain ongoing.
Got that? The EU will “reassess existing tariffs” while Trump agrees to halting US tariffs. In other words, Trump agrees to hold off on the 25% tariff threat and effectively agrees to reset things back to where they were before he started the trade war. So what did the Trump tariff temper tantrum accomplish? In the end, a lot of noise and fury signaling nothing. The Art of the Deal indeed!
Komrad pgl lying again: “No link? Well guess what – I found the CNBC story which notes…” What horrible personality flaw makes you lie like this?
The link: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/C0C6EB25-896F-481A-905F-437EDA6F05D4 was in his 1:40PM comment.
Your comment was at :
“pgl
July 25, 2018 at 2:21 pm.”
CoRev Please note that all time stamps on the blog are Pacific time.
CoRev
July 25, 2018 at 4:44 pm
Yes CoRev is a liar!
Seriously – CoRev has the ability to lower this to 3 year olds tossing sand in each other’s face. His mother must be so proud – NOT!
Gee – Peak’s Minnie Me cleans up Peak’s usual mess. Well done.
The Chinese have the advantage because their exchange does not float Thus the Government can devalue pr revalue however given the $US floats it depreciates and appreciates on its own terms i.e the government can do nothing in reality to change a currency’s level.
I admit hate people using devaluation instead of depreciation in most cases. I loved international economics in third year
China has another advantage – advisers who actually understand international economics as well as macroeconomics.
Trump has Kudlow and Ross. We’re doomed!
China’s economy is a joke.
Either you cannot understand economics or you’re a communist defender.
Most likely both, from what I keep hearing.
Let’s take a look at real GDP for China over the past generation:
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual
PeakStupidity calls this economy a joke but praises the Trump “boom”. Seriously – I do not think Peaky will ever pass preK!
“China’s economy is a joke.”
and you can defend this statement with accurate and real facts? still living in the st ronny decade of “communists” i see. what would you call a $12 billion dollar subsidy to the ag industry? free market capitalism? what a loser.
The only joke here is you PeakPathetic. Do you not hear everyone else laughing? They are laughing at you not BTW. But do babble on even as your poor mother hides her face in shame.
Pgl, you continue to prove your shallow and narrow understanding of economics.
I expect better from someone studying economics in high school.
Growth-at-any-cost can be very costly.
You have no clue.
peak is simply following his komrade orders to incite nationalistic fevers. he is such a sucker for the kremlin propaganda machine.
Lot of pointless bitterness here.
A pity for those interested in learning.