Pork Exports to China Zero’d Out?

According to Prof. Mary Lovely, trade economist at Syracuse University:

“In recent weeks, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has reported zero weekly export sales of pork to China. … So our exports to the country have pretty much collapsed.”

Based on USDA GATS data, journalistic account for June and Lovely’s account, we have the following picture.


Figure 1: Pork exports to China (BICO-HS10). June and July 2018 are estimates based on journalistic accounts. Orange denotes separate tariffs imposed on pork. Source: USDA GATS (FAS), based on BuCensus.

28 thoughts on “Pork Exports to China Zero’d Out?

  1. ilsm

    Saw the best price in years on pork tenderloin at the butcher yesterday, really good deal!

    Good for statin sales as well.

      1. pgl

        How much did the bacon association pay these guys for this incredible spin? Next up – Crispy Creme doughnuts will slim your waist line down! At least that is what they told Chris Christie!

        1. Bruce Hall

          Keep taking your statins and experience the joy at the loss of muscle strength and brain function. Nothing is wrong with a high fat diet combined with a low carbohydrate diet. I’d provide links, but when your mind is made up you won’t investigate.

          The greatest danger from pork is when it is linked to an unrelated bill.

  2. pgl

    Lawrence Kudlow the pudlow is on CBS This Morning babbling all sorts of BS. His big claim is that this trade war is not Trump’s fault – it is the fault of everyone else. Cough, cough. It seems our own PeakDishonesty has done a vulcan mind meld with the pudlow.

    Kudlow also told us that the cost of the soybean bailout will be a lot less than $12 billion. Which means the real costs will likely be north of $60 billion.

    The man would be an embarrassment for most White Houses but it fits quite well with the Trump swamp.

  3. Paul Mathis

    “Trade wars are good and easy to win.”

    Apparently, our Stable Genius can’t bring home the bacon.

    Thoughts and prayers to all the pork producers who got conned.

  4. 2slugbaits

    I don’t have a lot of sympathy for all those soybean, pork and dairy farmers who voted for Trump. They should have known what they would get with him. Trump has always been a big supporter of tariffs….”Tariffs are the greatest”…”Trade wars are easy to win”. That’s one of the few positions that he’s consistently held for 30+ years. I’m sorry if red state farmers were too stupid to not understand how trade wars happen, but they shouldn’t be shielded from the consequences of their decisions at the ballot box. Why should those of us who didn’t vote for the Moron-in-Chief have to bail out clueless farmers who did vote for him? If farmers aren’t forced to face the consequences of their decisions, they’ll never learn. The $12B farmer bailout is just another example of enabling stupid behavior. But if we have to bail them out, then farmers should be required to sign a pledge to never again make the same mistake in future elections.

  5. Erik Poole

    This article makes some projections into 2019 and 2020. Canadian hog producers have seen exports into Mexico increase. Darn. Was hoping for some cheaper pork in the supermarket.

    Am enjoying the humour in the post/thread. Waiting for some pork barrel jokes.

    —————————————————

    Do global pork glut and US tariff wars threaten beef pricing?

    By Simon Quilty, 25 July 2018

    Global beef prices could fall by as much as 17pc in 2019, followed by a second year of price falls of close to 11pc if impacts from a global glut in pork production and tariff wars between the US and major protein trading partners are not resolved, warns independent analyst Simon Quilty.

    https://www.beefcentral.com/news/does-global-pork-glut-threaten-beef-pricing/

    1. ottnott

      Global beef prices could fall by as much as 17pc in 2019, followed by a second year of price falls of close to 11pc if impacts from a global glut in pork production and tariff wars between the US and major protein trading partners are not resolved, warns independent analyst Simon Quilty.

      I used to eat very little red meat. Now the major grocery chains around here want me to pay $5 or $6 per lb for ground turkey, I’m grilling and braising a lot more beef.

      It will take a lot of cheap beef to make up for the GOP tax bomb, but I’m doing my best to even the score.

      1. pgl

        I used to do turkey burgers a couple of times a week but now it is old fashion hamburgers except when the local store decide to put the ground turkey on sale.

  6. spencer

    Remember, a tariff is a tax.

    So we now have a Republican president trying to solve problems by raising taxes.

    Has anyone told Grover Norquist ?

    1. PeakTrader

      The goal is to lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers.

      We’ll find out if his pre-negotiating, e.g. poker playing, will lead to favorable negotiations.

      So far, it’s been a process, not an outcome.

      1. PeakTrader

        For example, China refuses to negotiate.

        It doesn’t even acknowledge a problem, like its takeover of the South China Sea.

        It’s a done deal, as far as China is concerned.

        Not with Trump. He thinks what China is doing is wrong. So, a process is necessary to reach an outcome.

        1. 2slugbaits

          PeakTrader You’re in deep, deep denial. You keep holding onto this fantasy that Trump is really a free trader and all of this is just a negotiating tactic. Wake up and smell the coffee. He’s not a free trader. Never has been and never will be. Trump would no doubt like it if other countries removed their trade barriers, but Trump has no intention of ever reducing US trade barriers. If you think otherwise, then Trump has conned you again. But there’s hope. You and CoRev and Ed Hanson might want to establish a self-help and recovery group. Call it Trump Voters Anonymous. Maybe hold weekly support group meetngs….”Hello, my name is PeakTrader and I’m a Trump voter. I’ve been Trump spin free for three days.” You could establish a twelve step recovery plan. Step one would be to go to the county clerk’s office and register as a Democrat. Step two would be to write a letter to the editor publicly confessing the error of your way back in Nov 2016. You get the idea. I wish you good luck on your journey to recovery. Now go call your sponsor.

          1. pgl

            “You’re in deep, deep denial. You keep holding onto this fantasy that Trump is really a free trader and all of this is just a negotiating tactic. Wake up and smell the coffee.”

            Kudlow peddled this nonsense of the CBS morning show this morning. I think he woke up and snorted some coke before going on air.

          2. pgl

            Peaky claims you are fooled by Trump??? Peaky has really lost it as know he thinks he has become you. One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest!

        2. noneconomist

          Oh, Pinocchio. Prove yourself brave, truthful, and unselfish, and someday you’ll be a real boy.

      2. pgl

        “The goal is to lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers.”

        Seriously? This is like the Chris Christie diet – eat a bunch of Crispy Creme doughnuts in the hope one will lose weight.

    2. pgl

      On soybeans and pork – China gets the tax revenues. We have incurring the subsidy costs. What could go wrong?

  7. noneconomist

    I appreciate Sen. Corker’s take: the administration is cutting farmers’ profits but putting them on welfare by borrowing more from other countries.
    My take: Self inflicted pain made less painful by ingesting some deficit opioids. Thank you, Dr. Trump?

  8. ottnott

    Start tariff war.

    Pork exports to China drop 100%.

    Partial or full end of tariff war.

    Pork exports to China increase ∞%.

    Huuuge success!

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