Here is a time series of PredictIt’s odds for a government closure per OMB at noon, 24 December 2018. Red line at WH meeting.
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Here is a time series of PredictIt’s odds for a government closure per OMB at noon, 24 December 2018. Red line at WH meeting.
All I know is that Trump was a complete embarrassment to the entire nation today:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-taste-of-the-next-two-years?fbclid=IwAR1MisGUK1oWg1Pbdih_culFwhNKbbj7vMQImCX8M4qYfuoOHJbInQFefLQ
OK – he is an embarrassment everyday but this was beyond belief!
OMG, the Schumer statement, is one of the greatest things I have EVER seen. God bless the man. Schumer did his tribe proud today.
Thanks for sharing this pgl, great link. Be interesting to see if this makes FOX new or most of the news cycle in the next 16–24 hours. That was the most entertaining thing I may have seen in the last 6 months. I could put that on automatic replay and watch it for 2 hours straight and never get tired. You gotta put these up in here anytime you see anything like this again pgl.
ON THIS DAY, December 11, I bow down to your link skills pgl.
Did you see Orange Excrement’s face go from puke orange to deep pink?? I would have paid $40 admission fee for that.
It’s ironic that I’m saying this, because I always enjoy wagering odds and things put in numbers context, probabilities etc. But I’ll be reading sites like “Politico” and WaPo to get more a “feel” on this one.
This would make both Republicans and Trump look bad. And what usually happens on these deals is that instead of letting Republicans “fry in their own canola oil” so to speak (like Republicans do to them) the Democrats usually bend over backwards to save Republicans from taking heat. So I wager pageant winner of “Miss Senile California 2018” Nancy Pelosi will be making all the phone calls she can, so that she can make sure whenever any party looks like jackasses for the government shutdown, she can be certain in all her great senile wisdom that it’s always her own party that gets fried.
Based on my thoughts in the above paragraph, I’m only putting about 25% odds on a government shutdown happening on the 24th. Take it for whatever that’s worth coming from a “Joe Six-Pack”.
Trump said he would take credit for a government shutdown, thus relieving Chuck and Nancy of the blame. But Moses, on her worst day, Pelosi is still far smarter and far more politically intuitive than any Trump—children included—will ever be.
@ noneconomist
I don’t think the woman is up to the job. Maybe her staffers are a sharp group and can pull her through?? You probably can’t imagine how badly I would like to be wrong (that Pelosi is not up to the challenge) in this case. I think she’s being incredibly selfish when a younger female legislator could probably handle the task better. But Pelosi is going to have ample opportunity to prove me wrong.
Moses,
Oh dear. It seems that maybe you have a problem with smart and powerful older women. You go bonkers over supposed evils committed by 71-year old Elizabeth Warren, and now you are without a shred of good reasson declaring Nancy Pelosi to be senile. Most people thought she was eeven more effective against Trump than your hero-guy Chuck Schumer in the showdown with Trump. She clearly convinced doubting House Dems who have now agreed for her to be Speaker, although she has promised to step aside in 4 years. She was the main leader and architect of the Dem victoey in the House midterms this fall, wisely urging Dems to emphasize health care, which most of them did. This was her staff?
One of the more stunning moves she made was to publicly question Trump’s manhood on returning to congress after the showdown with him. Is this why you are so bent out of shape about both Warren and Pelosi while seeing nothing but heroic virtue in Schumer? Is this a manhood problem you have, MOses? Is this why you have been so obsessively gonzo over all this stuff, spouting lies and piles of rampant nonsense?
Thank you, Barkley. That needed saying.
I’m not sure how he could have watched those clips, where Pelosi calmly, yet forcefully stood up to the president more than just about anyone has, and come away blessing Schumer and insulting Pelosi.
@ Barkley Junior
I know you relate and feel kinship with senile people Barkley, but you need to calm down. As I said—Pelosi will have ample opportunity to prove me wrong. When they announce the impeachment (Senate and House) is official you can do your petty grave dance on top of me. As I said, this is one of the rare moments I would be happy to be wrong.
“I don’t think the woman is up to the job. ”
i felt this way the first time she was speaker. and i stand corrected. i have serious doubts that the democrats have anyone who will stand up to trump as effectively and vociferously as nancy. in addition, she creates a panic mode in trump, because there will be a woman telling him what to do. he will not handle that well, pelosi knows this, and will take advantage of it. she knows that, as a woman, she will be able to dare trump into actions he does not want to take, because it will reflect on his “manhood”. his pride will be detrimental to his agenda. just like the russians have figured out how to manipulate trump through his ego and emotions, i think pelosi will be just as effective.
I would bet the “over.” The wall is popular and Trump knows it. That is why he is being so forceful. Once it is not a faceoff of government shutdown because nothing, and it becomes a government shutdown because the House won’t build the wall, well that will change things. The wall is more popular than the government amongst normal people.
sammy: Where do you get your “factoids”? See this poll result. Or did the Illuminati manipulate these data?
Menzie,
Your poll is from March 2018, pre caravan.
sammy There already is a wall where people in the caravans are trying to enter the US. They are coming to the US port of entry claiming refugee status. I think you’re confusing Central Americans seeking refugee status and Mexicans crossing the border illegally for other reasons. And why in God’s name would you be reading a racist rag like Breitbart? Someone in the Clinton campaign first came up with the phrase “fake news” to describe Breitbart before Trump decided to steal the phrase and make it his own.
Menzie asked you a question which as usual you did not answer. If there is a more recent poll – put up or shut up.
PGL,
I linked to the latest Marist poll: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_Immigration_1812051721.pdf?wpisrc=nl_daily202&wpmm=1#page=3
You always complain about lack of links but then you never read them.
Sammy because the House won’t build the wall
Did you know that the GOP currently controls the House? And they have controlled it for two years. Have you ever asked yourself why the GOP House can’t seem to find a simple majority to pass additional funding for the wall? Did you know that Trump hasn’t even spent the earlier monies voted for the wall? Nancy Pelosi got it right…this is a manhood thing with Trump, plain and simple.
Personally I think the wall is a complete waste of taxpayer dollars, but wasteful government spending is not exactly unusual. I’m not happy with Pelosi and Schumer ruling out monies for the wall. Instead of being accomplices in a government shutdown, I would rather see Pelosi and Schumer trade support for Trump’s wall in exchange for Trump agreeing to make DACA protections formally enshrined in law. Trump wants his wall in the worst way, so I say give it to him in the worst way by making him accept something else that he doesn’t want to do. No DACA, no wall.
Trump is not dumb. He knows that what the Dems want is the illegal immigrant votes. Either now or in the future. This is why the immigration fight is a fight for the political future. Allow immigrants in and give them the right to vote and the Libs win. Forever.
So now you’re saying illegal immigrants vote???
Trump is both dumb and a serial liar. If you do not know that – you are dumb too.
sammy, i must say that is one of the dumbest comments i have seen on this site. and with all the garbage from corev, peakloser, rick stryker, etc that is an accomplishment. why do you conservatives continue to use this bogeyman? are run of the mill republicans actually dumb enough to believe such statements? really? actually, the illegal votes i am aware of appear to be coming from north carolina, for the republican candidate. go figure.
Sammy, if the wall is THAT popular
the CA. House seats in Orange and San Diego counties that flipped to Democrats would still be held by Republicans
Trump stooges Nunes and MCarthy would have seen additions–not severe drops–to their winning percentages
Dean Heller–the recipient of three Trump campaign stops– would be ready for a third term; and his state–Nevada–would not have a Democratic governor or state legislature
Kristin Sinema would not be heading to Washington to replace Jeff Flake while Arizona remained bright red, not light purple
Ted Cruz would have thumped Beto O’Rourke by 20 instead of 2.6% with no Democratic additions to congressional or legislative seats
New Mexico? It already has a bi-lingual state constitution, stemming from its admission to the Union and a majority HIspanic population
If the foregoing indicates wall popularity in the most affected states, please define “disfavor”.
Menzie:
The latest Marist Poll reveals that 65 percent of Trump supporters and 65 percent of GOP voters say the president should not compromise on his proposed border wall, even if it means a government shutdown.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2018/12/11/nearly-2-in-3-trump-voters-support-government-shutdown-for-border-wall/
sammy: Well, my grade school math tells me 0.4×0.65 = 0.26…what are the rest of the people, chopped liver?
Menzie,
Some D voters also favor the wall, maybe 20%? so that’s another 12% up to 38%. Not great, but we’ll see when it get’s real.
You make sh&t up and when called on it make other sh&t up. Sort of like that embarrassing display from Trump yesterday!
Trump at rally: “Who’s paying for the wall?”
Crowd: MEXICO!
That wall was the 35 foot high one made of modular concrete panels. The one whose estimated completion cost was $25 Billion, court costs not included. Built in places where no other current infrastructure exists.
Now, who IS gonna build THAT wall?
38% eh? Is that not the number of supporters found in that poll Menzie linked to that you dismissed as out of date? That went with 60% opposed.
Sammy FINALLY released a Marist poll. But he did not realize that even its results show disapproval of what Trump is doing.
Thanks for the update Sammy! LOL!
My math says 0.2 times 0.65 = 13%!
i don”t think sammy believes anybody who is not a gop and trump supporter counts anyways. they are part of the “other” people who should simply be disenfranchised and deported.
Baffling,
If you don’t believe the immigration debate is about voters, then you are indeed baffling
And if you don’t believe the immigration debate is about more—much more—than a wall, you’re even more naive than you have shown yourself to be.
sammy, you have a very narrow view. you believe it is about voters, and riling up the trump base. fine. but most of us look at the immigration issue and understand the dream of america, the land of opportunity. we want to preserve that dream for future generations. the next bill gates will probably be an immigrant. so you are half correct. in your view, the issue is how to energize republican voters. but you are wrong about the liberal side. it is not about voters. it is about keeping the dream alive for a better america. something you do not believe in.
noneconomist,
You are correct. The debate is much more than the wall. The wall is just a necessary start.s
When is a start a dead end?
“sammy: December 12, 2018 at 5:10 pm
PGL,
I linked to the latest Marist poll: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_Immigration_1812051721.pdf?wpisrc=nl_daily202&wpmm=1#page=3
You always complain about lack of links but then you never read them.”
Yes I did not read this link BEFORE Sammy posted it! DUH – what a stupid comment Sammy. But did you read it. The overall results came out against what Trump is doing. Next time actually provide the evidence first. Of course it would help if actually READ your own links.