IHME updated its forecasts yesterday. First the time series for total excess deaths:
Source: IHME, accessed 7/23/2021.
So, as of today, excess deaths are not particularly high — but looking forward one month, two months, the outlook is grim for populations in certain states.
Map for July 23, 2021 – per hundred thousand
Source: IHME, accessed 7/23/2021.
Map for August 23, 2021 – per hundred thousand
Source: IHME, accessed 7/23/2021.
Map for September 23, 2021 – per hundred thousandÂ
Source: IHME, accessed 7/23/2021.
One can already see the trends in hospitalizations (the vaccinations have delinked cases from deaths, but the states hard hit have low vaccination rates…). From NYT:
Hospitalizations per hundred thousand 
Source: NYT, 23 July 2021.
Economic indicators don’t show an impact yet, as discussed in this post. The Economist had an article yesterday musing on the economic impact of the Covid surge.
By the way – a shout out to IHME – their models have been spot on – despite the GOP politicization of COVID and the GOP anti-healthcare measures. On my Twitter account, I got a lot of “this is just flu 2.0 – no big deal”: “models by these eggheads are always wrong” early on. At the time – my response was – this seems unbelievable but this is something we should take seriously. A year and half later – and after a criminal incompetent response by Trump admin/GOP – and continued criminal behavior by GOP – it is terrible. Thanks Menzie for posting on these issues. (Also – gee whiz – the trolls on your blog! Are they paid know-nothings?)
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-07/24/c_1310082866.htm
July 24, 2021
Over 1.52 bln doses of COVID-19 vaccines administered in China
BEIJING — Over 1.52 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered in China as of Friday, the National Health Commission said Saturday.
[ Chinese coronavirus vaccine yearly production capacity is now 5 billion doses. Along with over 1.52 billion doses of Chinese vaccines administered domestically, another 600 million doses have been distributed internationally. A number of countries are now producing Chinese vaccines from delivered raw materials. ]
It was a “running joke” made by my father (before he passed away in the hot summer months of 2012) that the only way our state made national TV news was by way of negative headlines, and that Oklahomans seem to take a distorted or warped view that is was a mark of “pride” or something to be “prou-eeeeeeeewwwwwwd” of to be on the national news for whatever reason. When I look at the darkest red shaded state for the September 23rd map/graph my mind immediately goes to my father and the strange phenomena of the “worldview” of citizens educated in this state. It’s a sardonic/dark style of humor I inherited from my Dad (and maybe watching Letterman at a young age, but mostly my Dad), but one that can’t help but make me chuckle and think of him, when reading such maps (of which, again, as it regards this state, there is a plethora of such maps).
I’ve shared on this blog my mother was an RN for many years. The running joke among medical doctors employed in hospitals here (paraphrasing) was “Thank God for Mississippi and Louisiana, otherwise we’d rank at the bottom of every healthcare benchmark in existence,”
I was going to mention we can get gas near where we live for $2.65 a gallon, which is two cents cheaper than it was a couple days ago. Obviously that can’t compare to CPI or “basket of goods”, etc. Just a fun little data point for enquiring minds.
To tragically paraphrase:
The profoundly foolish will little note, nor long remember what we say here…