Monthly GDP for November is out. Q4 tracking is for q/q growth 2.1%-3.9% (SAAR).
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (1/3/2023 release), and author’s calculations.
IHS-Markit monthly GDP continues to rebound sharply. From IHS Markit today:
SAARMonthly GDP rose 0.4% in November following a 0.5% increase in October that was revised higher by 0.2 percentage point. The increase in November was more than accounted for by a sharp gain in net exports. Domestic final sales declined in November, mainly reflecting declines in residential and nonresidential fixed investment. Averaged over October and November, monthly GDP was 3.0% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest estimate of 2.6% annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a 0.5% decline (not annualized) in December.
Nowcasts and tracking estimates revised up today. GDPNow for Q4 is at 3.9% q/q SAAR.
Figure 2: GDP (bold black), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), GDPNow for Q4 (red square), Goldman Sachs (sky blue triangle), IHS Markit (inverted pink triangle), all in blillions Ch.2012$, SAAR. GDP+ level calculated by iterating on 2019Q4 GDP (when GDP and GDO matched). Lilac shading denotes peak-to-trough for a hypothesized 2022H1 recession. Source: BEA (Q4 3rd release), Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (12/22), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (1/3), Goldman Sachs (1/3), IHS Markit (1/3), and author’s calculations.
Notice that while GDP declines in 2022H1, GDO is essentially flat, while GDP+ is rising.
Summary of outlooks by financial firms, from Bloomberg here.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
January 3, 2023
a ) There were 5,226 coronavirus deaths in China on May 26, 2022.
b ) There were no coronavirus deaths from May 26, for nearly 6 months, through November 19.
c ) From November 20 through January 2, 2023 there have been 24 coronavirus deaths in China, bringing the total from 5,226 to 5,250.
d ) During the nearly 6 months of no coronavirus deaths in China, there were 300 to 500 coronavirus deaths each day in the United States.
e ) Coronavirus deaths in the United States continue at 200 to 400 each day.
f ) There have been 1,118,478 coronavirus deaths in the United States through January 2, 2023.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
January 2, 2023
Coronavirus
United States
Deaths ( 1,118,478)
Deaths per million ( 3,341)
China
Deaths ( 5,250)
Deaths per million ( 3.6)
Allow me to sprinkle some truth onto your lies-by-omission.
There have been no *reported* Covid deaths in China since May 26. There have been deaths, but Xi bottled up bad news on the way to having himself declare Emporer in October of last year. Note how deaths “resumed” after October.
Bottling up bad news for selfish political reasons resulted in massive demonstrations against Xi’s Covid suppression regime. Xi backed down and, with no real preparation, lifted lock-downs. The result has been a tremendous rise in Covid infections. Data on Chinese arrivals to Taiwan suggest a 28% infection rate, or higher. An infection rate that high suggests something approaching 400 million infected people in China. The global mortality rate from Covid is around 1%. That number is low because – here’s that problem again – China under-reports Covid deaths. Even based on that undercount, that means as many as 4 million Chinese are likely to die from current infections. The only way to arge that isn’t true is with some racist notion about the Chinese being “different” from the rest of us.
ltr continues to dump endless lies about the Covid situation in China. She also endlessly makes dshonest comparisons with the U.S. Why the U.S? Xi yas a serious inferiority comple when it comes to the U.S. – that’s obvious as anything. Lying about Covid, lying about GDP, lying about the enslavement of Uyghurs, distorting income percapita figures to hide China’s poor performance relative to it’s neighbors (including Taiwan) – it’s all a reflection of Xi’s embarrassment over China’s inferiority to other countries. That feeling of interior also explains Xi’s grasping militarism.
China has lots to offer the world. It’s a shame Xi, and ltr, feel the need to lie about China’s failures rather than focus on actual successes.
I agree 100%. It is interesting that ltr is able to give fairly good comments on economic issues in the west. Yet everything that has to do with China is just absurd and braindead recition of whatever their propaganda machine is feeding its population. China’s leaders have used nationalism and foreign enemies/competitors as a tool to control ethnic tribalisms in a county with 50 different languages (and even more ethnic groups). It is sort of pathetic to see an otherwise intelligent and analytical person being hopelessly court in that web of misdirection.
“It is interesting that ltr is able to give fairly good comments on economic issues in the west.”
I do read those but routinely skip any of her China related comments.
“b ) There were no coronavirus deaths from May 26, for nearly 6 months, through November 19.
c ) From November 20 through January 2, 2023 there have been 24 coronavirus deaths in China, bringing the total from 5,226 to 5,250.”
these are not accurate statements. they are ccp propaganda. please provide reliable statistics if you continue to post to this site.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
January 2, 2023
Coronavirus
New York
Deaths ( 75,351)
Deaths per million ( 3,873)
China
Deaths ( 5,250)
Deaths per million ( 3.6)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
January 2, 2023
Coronavirus
Germany
Deaths ( 161,714)
Deaths per million ( 1,928)
China
Deaths ( 5,250)
Deaths per million ( 3.6)
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tally has every component except residential investment adding to GDP in Q4, including inventories. That helps explain the above-trend growth estimate. Positive net exports and positive non-residential inventories may not turn out to be right, but it happens sometimes. Both are likely as not to be drags on Q1 growth.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-is-chinas-price-for-rejoining-humanity-mrna-variant-western-vaccines-quarantine-new-zealand-singapore-11672431753
December 30, 2022
Covid Is China’s Price for Rejoining Humanity
Beijing botches a ‘reopening’ that many of its Pacific neighbors pulled off gracefully.
By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. – Wall Street Journal
[ This is typical, and the sort of pernicious writing that came out of Germany during the 1930s. ]
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
January 4, 2023
Coronavirus
Switzerland
Deaths ( 14,388)
Deaths per million ( 1,640)
China
Deaths ( 5,258)
Deaths per million ( 3.6)
The comparison to 1930s Germany is a glaring case of “Every accusation an admission”, true for much of what ltr writes.
China’s press is a mouthpiece for China’s ruling party, just like much of 1930s German press. China has an enormous propaganda mechanism, just like 1930s Germany. China intends military domination of its neighbors, just like 1930s Germany.
What is published in the WSJ is not dictated by who is in power.
ltr’s most rabid dishonesty comes out in denying truths which sting Xi most.
The Never Kevin crowd just nominated Byron Donalds of Florida to be the next Speaker. Donalds shares two things with Hakeem Jeffries. Both grew up in NYC and both are black. But that is about it as Donalds is a member of the Tea Party.
a ) https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-27/Chinese-mainland-records-102-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1amUW6S96Bq/index.html
May 27, 2022
Chinese mainland records 102 new confirmed COVID-19 cases
The cumulative number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland is 223,837, with the death toll from COVID-19 standing at 5,226.
b ) https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-11-20/Chinese-mainland-records-2-267-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1f6H3qEMe7m/index.html
November 20, 2022
Chinese mainland records 2,267 new confirmed COVID-19 cases
The cumulative number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland is 286,197, with the death toll from COVID-19 standing at 5,227.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
January 3, 2023
a ) There were 5,226 coronavirus deaths in China on May 26, 2022.
b ) There were no coronavirus deaths from May 26, for nearly 6 months, through November 19.
c ) From November 20 through January 2, 2023 there have been 24 coronavirus deaths in China, bringing the total from 5,226 to 5,250.
d ) During the nearly 6 months of no coronavirus deaths in China, there were 300 to 500 coronavirus deaths each day in the United States.
e ) Coronavirus deaths in the United States continue at 200 to 400 each day.
f ) There have been 1,118,478 coronavirus deaths in the United States through January 2, 2023.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-is-chinas-price-for-rejoining-humanity-mrna-variant-western-vaccines-quarantine-new-zealand-singapore-11672431753
December 30, 2022
Covid Is China’s Price for Rejoining Humanity
Beijing botches a ‘reopening’ that many of its Pacific neighbors pulled off gracefully.
By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. – Wall Street Journal
[ Understand the way in which China is being demeaned and vilified. The writing is typical. This is the sort of pernicious writing that came out of Germany during the 1930s. ]
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
January 3, 2023
Coronavirus
Israel
Deaths ( 12,062)
Deaths per million ( 1,293)
China
Deaths ( 5,258)
Deaths per million ( 3.6)
a) https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-27/Chinese-mainland-records-102-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1amUW6S96Bq/index.html
May 27, 2022
Chinese mainland records 102 new confirmed COVID-19 cases
The Chinese mainland recorded 102 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Thursday, with 80 linked to local transmissions and 22 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Friday.
A total of 342 asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Thursday, and 19,295 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland is 223,837, with the death toll from COVID-19 standing at 5,226.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
b) https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-27/Chinese-mainland-records-102-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1amUW6S96Bq/img/27811e978d314871800fb5a80ac78408/27811e978d314871800fb5a80ac78408.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-27/Chinese-mainland-records-102-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1amUW6S96Bq/img/334d1590cf004d0f8b7ed528d87d9164/334d1590cf004d0f8b7ed528d87d9164.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-05-27/Chinese-mainland-records-102-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1amUW6S96Bq/img/31af531a3ba4489da4f647aa628218d5/31af531a3ba4489da4f647aa628218d5.jpeg
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-11-20/Chinese-mainland-records-2-267-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1f6H3qEMe7m/index.html
November 20, 2022
Chinese mainland records 2,267 new confirmed COVID-19 cases
The Chinese mainland recorded 2,267 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Saturday, with 2,204 attributed to local transmissions and 63 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Sunday.
A total of 22,168 asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Saturday and 189,669 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland is 286,197, with the death toll from COVID-19 standing at 5,227.
The latest tally of confirmed cases in the Hong Kong and Macao special
administrative regions and Taiwan region is as follows:
Hong Kong: 448,671 (95,923 recoveries, 10,586 deaths)
Macao: 796 (789 recoveries, six deaths)
Taiwan: 8,146,790 (13,742 recoveries, 13,907 deaths)
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-11-20/Chinese-mainland-records-2-267-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1f6H3qEMe7m/img/529a955da36643228eba5991589feab3/529a955da36643228eba5991589feab3.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-11-20/Chinese-mainland-records-2-267-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1f6H3qEMe7m/img/63a7e399a5364ca1b5f53a2468ef5e10/63a7e399a5364ca1b5f53a2468ef5e10.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-11-20/Chinese-mainland-records-2-267-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1f6H3qEMe7m/img/33493cef6882466c8c65d3307f227a9d/33493cef6882466c8c65d3307f227a9d.jpeg
c) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
January 2, 2023
Coronavirus
France
Deaths ( 162,214)
Deaths per million ( 2,473)
China
Deaths ( 5,250)
Deaths per million ( 3.6)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-is-the-real-sick-man-of-asia-11580773677
February 3, 2020
China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia
Its financial markets may be even more dangerous than its wildlife markets.
By Walter Russell Mead – Wall Street Journal
[ The disdain, the vilifying were there from the beginning. The disdain and vilification were there from 1882 and the Chinese Exclusion Act; there from April 2011 and the Wolf Amendment banning China from working with NASA on space exploration. ]
Harkening back to Johnny’s claim that “In the Fall of 2021 nobody was talking about a Russian attack on Ukraine”, I think Ii understand how he attemted to get away with a claim that is so ridiculously wrong. It goes like this:
– Putin thought his troops would roll into Kiev in very little time.
– A quick victory in Ukraine would be more likely if Ukrainian forces were caught off guard.
– So, nobody suspected.
– Johnny lives inside the bubble of Putin propaganda.
– “In the Fall of 2021 nobody was talking about a Russian attack on Ukraine.”
Kinda like this:
Phase 1: Collect underpants (Attack Ukrane when “nobody suspects”)
Phase 2: ?
Phase 3: Profit (Easy conquest)
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/dd/Gnomes_plan.png
Ducky continues to live in his own delusional world shaped by his reimagining history!
Here’s a WSJ article from December 21, 2021. “Sky-High Lumber Prices Are Back.” Russia was NOT mentioned as a factor in driving the dramatic rise in lumber prices in Fall, 2021….unless you believe that Putin was responsible for Biden’s raising tariffs on Canadian timber. (Ducky probably believes that!!!)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sky-high-lumber-prices-are-back-11639842879
Time to get real, Ducky. Russia is not to blame for everything, much as you would like for that to be the case.
Lou Dobbs has been insane for a long time:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/lou-dobbs-turns-on-trump-for-backing-rinos-and-swamp-with-mccarthy-support-in-post-on-trump-s-own-truth-social/ar-AA15YdTB?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=a1a1eb9fb7604ef7aa7b41f1c730befc
Ultra-MAGA former Fox Business host Lou Dobbs dramatically turned on ex-president Donald Trump, on Trump’s own Truth Social, over support for Rep. Kevin McCarthy‘s bid to be Speaker of the House, which is currently not going swimmingly. Dobbs is praising the “20 patriots” who are holding out in opposition to McCarthy taking the gavel, a situation that has been rife with chaos, cursing, and multiple ballots so far, and has pitted even seemingly natural allies like Rep. Lauren Boebert and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene against one another. And now, Dobbs against Trump. In tweets and on Trump’s own Truth Social, the longtime hardcore Trump devotee said his former dearest leader “backs RINOs and Swamp.
Don’t you just love it when right wing jerks fight each other?