Wisconsin GDP growth slackened in 2022Q2-Q3, lagging the national deceleration.
Figure 1: US GDP (blue), GDPNow for 2023Q1 (light blue square), Wisconsin GDP (red), and Wisconsin Economic Outlook forecast (pink squares), all in logs, 2021Q4=0. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed (3/31), Dept of Revenue, and author’s calculations.
The nowcast for Q1 US growth is 2.9% (q/q annualized). Wisconsin GDP growth percentage point for percentage point with US GDP (adj-R2=0.90), so this implies continued growth in Wisconsin GDP in Q1.
Interlinkages with the rest of the US are enough to explain the Wisconsin deceleration. However, it is interesting that Wisconsin exports have taken a hit in Q2-Q4.
Figure 2: Wisconsin goods exports, mn.2000$, s.a. (blue). Nominal seasonally adjusted using Census X13, deflated using all commodities export price index. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Census, BLS via FRED (series EXPTOTWI and IQ), NBER, and author’s calculations.
The declne in goods exports in 2022Q2 were about 0.7 percentage points of Wisconsin GDP (real US exports were rising 2022Q2-Q3). If the multiplier is about 1.6, then this accounts for about 1.1 percentage points of GDP reduction. This estimate assumes that all exported good value added is Wisconsin sourced, which is unlikely to be the case. Combined with the fact that value added in manufacturing (a typical proxy for tradables), this suggests part Wisconsin’s lagging performance is export related.
Anyone remember Sen Johnson fighting against getting more manufacturing jobs in Wisconsin? https://www.businessinsider.com/wisconsin-has-enough-jobs-senator-ron-johnson-says-2022-2
According to him – the problem is not enough workers willing to accept $7.25/hour – of course he is also against anyone moving to Wisconsin especially if they happen to be immigrants from another country.
I been trying to buy Wisconsin products when I go to the grocers, but there’s only so much a puh boy can do. They keep trying to charge $1.78 for that tropical drink, but $1.10 is about as far as I can go.
I like Monster drink (not a Wisconsin product). It’s the cheapest I’ve seen it in awhile at $1.58, but they overload it with B-12 and I figured out that is one of the reasons I been putting on weight lately, so I gotta cut way back on the B-12. Seems like you can’t win sometimes.
I just bought cheese but forgot to check whether it was from Wisconsin. And cursed me – I bought some beer made by a local microbrew. I really should expand my grocery horizons. So what is the best beer from Wisconsin?
I actually only just buy one on my alcohol runs. I get “Miller High Life”, which is a union made brand out of Milwaukee. It is quite bitter, not “smooth” but, tolerable. I bet Menzie’s Wisconsin based readers can give you a better answer than me. I’ve never tried it, but I’ve always heard good word of mouth about Schlitz. Anything else I would have to suggest would just be stuff I grabbed off of websites. Strawberry Rhubarb looks good, made by New Glarus Brewing Company.
https://www.beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/590/96831/
http://schlitzbrewing.com/ <—- I can't get the location thingy to work to see if they sell it in NYC, you can give it a try.
Moses, you and I both know that weight gain is the result of sedentary living. Like commenting on blog posts.
Guess I’ll go for a walk…
Yes, earlier in the week I spent 2 hours cutting some branches that were taking over the back fence. Embarrassed to say that’s the most exercise I’ve had in awhile.
Had restaurant made spaghetti, cherry soda, and will probably have a brownie and a coffee late afternoon. Not exactly Olympics regimen stuff.
I used to consistently lose 3-5 pounds on my drinking binges. Now I eat when I drink so I can’t even say that anymore. Total bummer.
I eat when I’m hungry,
I drink when I’m dry
And if whiskey don’t kill me
I’ll give Pilates a try!
: )
Pilates? That’s too closely related to a vulgar word in my house, called, exercise.
I got a army green parka in the house, been thinking of taking some walks out in the rain with it. That or take my bike out with a half-broken pedal. I got 10 pound stationary weights and believe it or not, those are the ones I’m most apt to use.
whiskey you’re my darlin’
drunk or sober
In my repressed and deprived life, as much drinking as I have done (and I have done a fair share I promise, especially concentrated in about a 3 year span (??) ) I have done 99% of my drinking either in Chinese (mainland China) beer bars, Chinese restaurants (again mainland China) or at home alone. To my memory I have only entered one USA beer bar when I was layed over in Atlanta Georgia and another semi driver literally begged me to go to a dive bar with him, which I absolutely hated. So my personal education (aside from a few throw aside lines from books) on drinking rhymes is very very limited. From Black Bart, it goes (am I forgetting some William Burroughs stuff??) like this:
“I’ve labored long and hard
for bread, for honor, and for riches.
But on my corns too long you’ve tread,
you fine-haired sons of bitches.”
Wait……. that has nothing to do with drinking, I think I just wanted to use that one.
How about this from Black Bart??
“Here I lay me down to sleep. To wait the coming morrow, Perhaps success, perhaps defeat, And everlasting sorrow.”
Damn, I guess I don’t know any drinking rhymes. What the hell is wrong with me??
: )
Alas I hear that Joseph Stiglitz is very upset with this blog for allowing a liar like JohnH to misrepresent what he wrote here:
https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/chazen-global-insights/what-s-wrong-negative-rates
Note this was written 7 years ago and clearly began with:
I wrote in January 2016 that economic conditions this year were set to be as weak as in 2015, which was the worst year since the global financial crisis erupted in 2008. And, as has happened repeatedly over the last decade, a few months into the year, others’ more optimistic forecasts are being revised downward. The underlying problem — which has plagued the global economy since the crisis, but has worsened slightly — is lack of global aggregate demand.
Jonny boy wants to cherry pick Stiglitz’s argument that a further lowering of interest rates (7 years ago) would do little to further aggregate demand as if Stiglitz was telling us that in a booming economy, raising real interest rate would not tamper down very strong aggregate demand.
Of course Jonny boy leaves off how Stiglitz began his article 7 years ago. So Jonny boy is grossly misrepresenting what Stiglitz clearly was saying 7 year ago. This kind of dishonesty is about as disgusting as it gets but we tolerate the pathetic little liar JohnH way too much. One cannot blame Stiglitz for such blatant misrepresentation. And yet Jonny boy keeps citing Stiglitz to support the utter stupidity that JohnH continues to spew.
I live near the border leading in and out of California… and if there is a Wisconsin problem, it is that too much cheese is being smuggled out of California, and mostly by residents of Wisconsin. (funniest commercial ever perhaps)
Wait – Joe Tacopina once represented Stormy Daniels but is now representing Trump?
https://www.mediaite.com/news/stormy-daniels-lawyer-gives-cnn-exclusive-scoop-on-emails-with-trump-attorney-that-could-force-him-off-case/
The exchanges – said to date back to 2018, when Daniels was seeking representation – raise the possibility that the Trump attorney, Joe Tacopina, could be sidelined from his defense of the former president in a case pertaining to Trump’s alleged role in a scheme to pay hush money to Daniels. Daniels’ communications with Tacopina and others at his firm include details relating to Daniels’ situation, according to her current attorney Clark Brewster, who believes the communications show a disclosure of confidential information from Daniels.
Yea Tacopina is from New York City. He’s the kind of slime that even the Manhattan rats avoid whenever possible. Trump’s kind of lawyer.
I am saying this, with no positive or negative feelings towards Daniels, largely neutral~~~
Clark Brewster is based out of Tulsa Oklahoma, a fruitcake, who loves attention. Bad lawyer?? No idea
Brewster represented a Barney Fife nutjob, Robert Bates, who got a sadistic kick out of playing “supercop” on stakeouts of minority suspects (Black or Hispanic mostly) and shot a Black man while claiming he thought it was his taser. There were other things Bates did that never saw the light of day, I suspect just as bad as the murder of Eric Harris.
https://www.readfrontier.org/stories/attorney-reserve-deputy-charged-in-shooting-should-be-immune-from-civil-suit/
Brewster also represented a corrupt and racist Sheriff by the name of Stanley Glanz.
Adani’s problems had, till now, not produced mu h spill-over for other Indian firms. The WSJ reports that another giant Indian firm, Vedanta, is looking rocky:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-adanis-crisis-indias-vedanta-looks-vulnerable-too-b9c4408b
Off topic, that banking thing –
Deposits in smaller banks stabilized in the week of March 22, while deposits in large banks fell. The fall in large bank deposits was within the range of normal variation. Take a look at the steady decline in deposits in large banks since March of last year. Small banks hadn’t suffered deposit losses during the Fed’s rate hikes, till SVB cracked. Large banks had:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=124j1
But it was small banks which suffered rapid outflows during the run. Not sure how the run on small banks is the result of Fed rate policy, in light of these patterns. Looks more like the steady decline in deposits at large banks is due to Fed policy. And we know that large banks have improved their interest rate margins as the Fed hiked rates.
Funny what you can learn from checking the data.
You know how non-crazy Republicans like Jeff Flake, Bob Corker and Lisa Murkowski have had trouble staying in office because of attacks from the right? Turns out, figuring out what to do about right-wing crazies inside the conservative movement is not new. Bill Buckley had the same problem, and decided that having it both ways was the right way:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/03/31/buckley-john-birch-society-00087893
Same antisemitism, same dishonest tactics, same intolerance then as now.
@ Macroduck
This is a great point by you.
But I’ll tell you, you live long enough, yeah (??) and some things just baffle your mind. The old “The more you know, the more you know you don’t know” thing. Or “The more you know the less you understand”. And there’s many perplexing things about that. I was recently called on the carpet by our good man Rick Stryker, for mentioning my peeves with Barkley Rosser Jr, and I am sure many thought my “trashing” Rosser was in very poor taste. And I “get it” I “get it”. Why attack someone who can’t defend themselves after death?? “Just let it rest” yeah?? But I hate lies. and I can’t let it rest. Lies are lies, and that doesn’t change when people die. So I see some parallels here between William Buckley and our friend Professor Rosser. Is Rosser as bad as Buckley was?? NO. But….. I’m not going to ignore Rosser’s worse traits because he died. And people did this with Buckley, making him some “Angel” upon his death even though anyone with a passing look could tell William Buckley was~~up to his death, a walking taking POS. So….. getting back to things which will baffle you to eternity—baffle you clear to eternity~~~ Why did Ira Glasser~~a Jew~~Give Buckley a “pass”, when Buckley NEVER apologized for his severely racist takes on public policy?? That is a grand mystery I will never solve:
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1994/04/25/god-and-man-at-shea
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ira-glasser-remembers-wil_b_91175
The closest I can find to a “real” answer, of many many unsatisfactory ones that ran through my mind~~~was that Ira Glasser was a very very very forgiving man, who chose to see the very best in people, and receded to the farthest outskirts of his mind, their worser traits.
*walking talking POS. Sorry
The Social Security Trustee Report for 2023 was released in Friday. Here’s the policy issue in a nutshell:
“The projected actuarial deficit over the 75-year long-range period is 3.61 percent of taxable payroll – higher than the 3.42 percent projected in last year’s report.”
https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/releases/2023/#3-2023-3
That 3.6% deficit, if financed by a payroll tax increase, would be paid half by employers, half by emoyees. The employee share would amount to about a buck a week, on average. Alternatively, eliminating the cap on the payroll tax would pay for the whole thing.
Public opinion is heavily in favor of maintaining benefits, or expanding them, and this is a democracy, right? Workers are saying they’ll cough up a buck a week for a more secure retirement.
Fans of cutting benefits or raising the retirement age argue that employees pay the entire cost of higher payroll taxes (and shouldn’t be allowed to decide if that’s OK). That is a claim about elasticities, and so subject to evaluation; we should not take the claim at face value as long as the ghost of Pete Peterson still wanders the halls of power. Lots of credentialed folk have taken Peterson’s shilling. What we have seen in the aftermath of the pandemic is that suppression of worker benefits is not an iron law. And this is a democracy, if we can keep it. So let’s have the public decide what to do about Social Security.
TSMC’s plans to open fabs in Arizona runs into a double taxation problem?
https://www.ft.com/content/743a9cfa-c6a1-4f89-8c24-8607414e6900
A taxing diplomatic dilemma discourages Taiwanese companies from expanding in the US. Punitive double taxation has been an unresolved issue for years. Now that the US wants to increase domestic chip production, some politicians want the US to offer a better deal to companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Any change would likely spark geopolitical problems….The situation is growing more urgent as TSMC finishes an advanced chip plant in Arizona. The US wants more local plants to be built. Taiwanese officials have asked for an agreement to ease the burden of double taxation for more than five years. For TSMC, the estimated effective tax rate runs over 50 per cent on profits earned in the US. TSMC workers in the country are also highly taxed. Peers such as Samsung operate at a much lower levy thanks to a tax treaty that South Korea has with the US. The odds of a similar deal for Taiwan look slim. This poses a problem. Fabrication sites typically need more than 10,000 employees. Samsung’s facility in Texas had more than this number before it announced expansion plans last year, which should double the total. Most employees are highly skilled engineers. Sourcing local staff is tough, especially in the early stages. The semiconductor industry has struggled to hire and retain staff globally. TSMC would prefer to move existing staff to the US. But some in the US will oppose favourable employment terms for overseas workers.
Now I bet Mitch McConnell has a solution – let all these profits escape to a tax haven so no one pays taxes in the US or Taiwan.