Month-on-month PCE inflation was 0.2% below consensus (core 0.1% below).
Figure 1: Month-on-month annualized PCE inflation (blue), core PCE (tan), trimmed PCE (red), and instantaneous PCE (T=12, a=4) (green). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, Dallas Fed via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Instantaneous and annualized trimmed PCE inflation at 4%; core at 3.7%.