Real Wages, Overall and Leisure/Hospitality

Decidedly up in the latter, even up relative to 2022M02 in the former.

Figure 1: Real average hourly earnings in total private (blue, left log scale), and in leisure and hospitality (tan, right log scale), in 1982-84$, s.a. April figures deflated using Cleveland Fed nowcast for CPI. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.

If using the PCE deflator, one obtains Figure 2:

Figure 2: Real average hourly earnings in total private (blue, left log scale), and in leisure and hospitality (tan, right log scale), in 2012$ (PCE deflator), s.a. April figures deflated using Cleveland Fed nowcast for PCE. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, BEA, Cleveland Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.

Implicitly, I’m addressing an issue of inequality, given leisure and hospitality wages are usually lower than the average (as measured by FRED series AHETPI, shown in the blue lines above.

Update, 5/9/2023:

Due to popular demand:

Figure 3: Real average hourly earnings in total private (blue, left log scale), and in leisure and hospitality (tan, right log scale), in 1982-84$, s.a. April figures deflated using Cleveland Fed nowcast for CPI. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.

 

79 thoughts on “Real Wages, Overall and Leisure/Hospitality”

    1. JohnH

      It would be interesting to put the average hourly wages of the top 10% on the same chart as those of the average worker.

      At https://www.realtimeinequality.org/ you can get an idea by selecting average real factor income (Dec. 2019- March 2023).

      The average income of the bottom 50% is almost off the bottom of the chart; the income for the top 10% is almost off the top of the chart, and the income for the middle 40% is somewhat above the bottom 50% but nowhere near the top 10%.

      I would be amazed (and gladdened) if I ever saw a chart like that displayed here. But that might risk discomforting the comfortable…

      1. pgl

        You did this again? Your link is not looking at the percentiles of real wages. No Jonny boy – it is the percentiles of overall income which is driven a lot by profits. Come on dude – I would have thought no one would be so stupid as to do this once but you keep confusing the matters over and over again.

        1. JohnH

          “How to Lie With Data Visualization’
          https://www.huffpost.com/entry/lie-with-data-visualization_b_5169715

          Using a truncated y-axis is one of the oldest tricks in the book.

          Selecting an outlier and characterizing its performance as typical is another. For example, when I talk about obscene corporate profit margins, pgl always manages to find a company that is not doing well and suggests that its representative of industry in general!

          Using the average real wage to suggest that the average worker is doing well is yet another, one that the BLS specifically addresses in its technical note: ‘The series are the average earnings of all employees or all production and nonsupervisory jobs, not the earnings average of “typical” jobs or jobs held by “typical” workers.’ https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.tn.htm

          As we know by now, pgl is quite familiar with all these tricks and uses them regularly.

          1. pgl

            How effing stupid are you? Your little dishonest tirade has nothing to do with what I said. Of course your usual comment is worthless.

          2. pgl

            I went to your link which at the bottom of it all shows real labor income over time. Your top 10% saw a 18.5% increase from 3/2013 to 3/2023.

            The lowest quartile saw a 31.5% increase over the same period.

            But we see little Jonny boy not addressing any issue regarding how labor income has evolved over the past few years or even the past decade. Yep – little Jonny boy just changes the topic and continues to LIE about what others have done or said.

            It is YOUR link Jonny boy. Try doing some real work for once in your worthless little lying life.

          2. pgl

            Another paper Jonny boy did not read. Hey Jonny – where does this paper support your original dishonest attempt to call Dr. Chinn dishonest? Oh wait it didn’t. And when are you going to do your own homework. I did and it supports what Dr. Chinn wrote. So once again you lied. And now you are off pulling up other totally off point trash while you make more dishonest accusations.

            Yea – you are one dumb dishonest troll.

          3. pgl

            I guess you have never read what Thomas Aquinas wrote some 750 years ago. The Just Price is a concept that at least we had to think about when I was in graduate school back in the 1970’s.

            But little Jonny boy thinks that only recently has the distribution of income became a hot topic. Yea – little Jonny boy is the most clueless troll ever.

          4. pgl

            https://www.jstor.org/stable/2114534

            The Concept of the Just Price: Theory and Economic Policy
            Raymond de Roover
            The Journal of Economic History (Dec., 1958)

            A paper from 65 years ago that Jonny boy never read. Yes economists have been discussing this issue for generations. But little Jonny boy thinks this is a recent hot topic because little Jonny boy is STOOOPID!

          5. Moses Herzog

            Had to return this book to the public library today, before I finished reading it due (no pun intended) to my lethargy and laziness.
            https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the-great-reversal-thomas-philippon/1130806724

            The book came out in 2019. In my sad and shameful skimming of the book, I noticed he discussed this:
            https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hhi.asp

            Also discussed~~Tobin’s q, failure of free entry, unit labor costs, skewness, and many other important things. If more people read books like this instead of watching tight mini-skirts on FOX news we might not have Republican politicians creating policies to gift rich people with more trampling of the middle class.

      2. pgl

        “you can get an idea by selecting average real factor income (Dec. 2019- March 2023).”

        Do you even know what factor income means? Didn’t think so. The bottom of your link actually show labor income. For your top 10% over the period you selected, this rose by less than 7%. For the lowest quartile – it rose by over 40%.

        Hey Jonny boy – you love to give us homework assignments that you do not do – probably because you are too incompetent to do the real work.

        Now I did the real work as the facts are directly contrary to the BS you are spewing.

        Now I get it. I just hurt little Jonny boy’s feelings. Cannot wait for Jonny’s usual childish and pointless insults!

      3. pgl

        “Realtime Inequality provides the first timely statistics on how economic growth is distributed across groups. When new growth numbers come out each quarter, we show how each income and wealth group benefits. Controlling for price inflation, average national income per adult in the United States increased at an annualized rate of 2.2% in the first quarter of 2023, and average income for the bottom 50% grew by 1.5%.”

        Wait real income for the bottom 50% grew last quarter. I changed their table from last quarter to the calendar year 2022 and real income for the bottom 50% grew by 2.4% according to Jonny boy’s own link.

        But Jonny boy keeps telling us this group had real income declines. Isn’t it funny when one actually looks at the data provided by Jonny boy’s own links – we see his incessant babbling turns out to be one lie after another,

      4. JohnH

        “How to Lie With Data Visualization’
        https://www.huffpost.com/entry/lie-with-data-visualization_b_5169715

        Using a truncated y-axis is one of the oldest tricks in the book.

        Selecting an outlier and characterizing its performance as typical is another. For example, when I talk about obscene corporate profit margins, pgl always manages to find a company that is not doing well and suggests that its representative of industry in general!

        Using the average real wage to suggest that the average worker is doing well is yet another, one that the BLS specifically addresses in its technical note: ‘The series are the average earnings of all employees or all production and nonsupervisory jobs, not the earnings average of “typical” jobs or jobs held by “typical” workers.’ https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.tn.htm

        As we know by now, pgl is quite familiar with all these tricks and uses them regularly.

        1. pgl

          Yea – Jonny boy is so stupid he repeats this off point excuse for not doing his homework. You indeed are the most worthless troll ever.

  3. pgl

    Before a certain someone accuses our host of “moving the goal posts” – let’s note that the NFL has never even considering putting them on the 30 yard line.

  4. JohnH

    There’s no denying that according to ONE measure of AVERAGE wages, wages are up since before the pandemic (2019). Real non-farm payroll is up about 2.2%. Leisure and hospitality is up perhaps 5.8%.

    Other measures don’t paint the same rosy picture. AVERAGE hourly earnings are up .09% for the same period. MEDIAN usual weekly earnings are up .29%. https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2018/02/are-wages-increasing-or-decreasing/

    http://www.realtimeinequality.org shows that average factor income for the bottom 50% is -1% since December 2019; -0.4% for the middle 40%. However, income for the top 10% rose 6.2%, resulting in an overall average of 2.6%. It’s a splendid example of how use of AVERAGE incomes can generate a distorted picture for the average American, who earns the median income.

    To get an idea of the distortion between AVERAGE and MEDIAN wages, Social security calculates the disparity–the median wage is about 65% of the average wage. And it has been increasing since 2019, which could help explain why AVERAGE hourly earnings used by the host are up so much more than other measures (we’ll know better when SSA releases its next figures in October.)

    I am curious at to why the blog host chose the rosiest number along with a favorable deflator from all the numbers available.

    1. pgl

      It is kind of retarded to accuse Dr. Chinn of being dishonest when little Jonny boy does not know the difference between wage income versus total income. Come on Jonny boy – try learning to read Dr. Seuss before you tackle economics. Damn!

    2. pgl

      “Other measures don’t paint the same rosy picture.”

      Look – I generally like these posts from Christian Zimmermann but this one is just dumb for reasons I noted. But Jonny boy never gets the message so he keeps linking to this weird post. OK one more time since Jonny boy is too stupid to read.

      3 of his 4 measures are NOMINAL wages while only one tracks REAL wages. I have no idea why Zimmermann mixed things up so badly. But I do know why Jonny boy keeps linking to this silliness. YEA Jonny boy is THAT STUPID.

    3. baffling

      “I am curious at to why the blog host chose the rosiest number along with a favorable deflator from all the numbers available.”
      same could be said about you, Johnny.

      1. pgl

        Jonny choose to use data he does not even remotely understand. Which alas is what this troll excels at.

    1. pgl

      And why should we trust this little tweet? Like Trump tweets lies 24/7 so why not this person?

      1. Moses Herzog

        I was wondering recently if “we” (Americans, the West in general) were being as hard on Gerhard Schröder for cavorting and conspiring with Putin as we were Xi Jinping for the same. Then I thought to myself “98% of mainland Chinese wouldn’t even know there was a sin committed, much less ask the question”. Still, I think Gerhard Schröder should be punished severely, more than he has up to this point.

        But again, this is the difference between “ltr” and the rest of us. “We” (Americans, Westerners) are not amoral, and “we” (Americans, Westerners) have a conscience to ask the question of ourselves and of our culture. The answers, as here with Gerhard Schröder, aren’t always good ones.

        But it’s also worthy to note, while people like Stevie Kopits lecture Professor Chinn and wave the naughty finger at Professor Chinn for supposedly not taking Xi Jinping to task, I don’t ever remember Kopits criticizing Gerhard Schröder’s behavior with Putin.

        Maybe Kopits can share links to his own writing on Schröder and his love of Putin?? “Certainly”, Kopits is not a hypocrite and has criticized Schröder the same as he has Xi, and the same way Kopits expects that Menzie is “obligated” to call out each and every one of Xi JInping’s sins??

        1. pgl

          I’ve been looking for a way to express the sensible middle ground between Kopits and ltr. You just did it perfectly. Thanks!

        2. ltr

          But again, this is the difference between —– and the rest of us. “We” (Americans, Westerners) are not amoral, and “we” (Americans, Westerners) have a conscience.
          But again, this is the difference between —– and the rest of us. “We” (Americans, Westerners) are not amoral, and “we” (Americans, Westerners) have a conscience.
          But again, this is the difference between —– and the rest of us. “We” (Americans, Westerners) are not amoral, and “we” (Americans, Westerners) have a conscience.

          [ Imagine the destructiveness of such racism. ]

        3. ltr

          But again, this is the difference between —– and the rest of us. “We” (Americans, Westerners) are not amoral, and “we” (Americans, Westerners) have a conscience…

          [ This is the way in which the destruction of a civilization can be rationalized. ]

      2. ltr

        And why should we trust this little tweet? Like Trump tweets lies 24/7 so why not this person?

        [ Akende M’membe is Zambian; a Kingston University educated Barrister who directs the Southern Africa journal “Pan-Africanism Today.”

        Whether an African Barrister and journalist whose integrity has long been accepted can be trusted now is for the reader to determine.  However, the Chinese in fact are responsible for all the mentioned Zambian infrastructure and more besides and American officials have been roaming Zambia and other African countries warning Africans against working with China on development.

      3. ltr

        “And why should we trust this little tweet?”

        https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-03-26/China-built-hydropower-stations-alleviate-power-shortages-in-Africa-1iu1jsQGmwU/index.html

        March 26, 2023

        China-built hydropower stations alleviate power shortages in Africa

        The Chinese-built Kafue Gorge Lower Hydropower Station in Zambia was fully commissioned on Friday, following the switching on of its fifth generator.

        The power plant, located 90 kilometers south of the Zambian capital of Lusaka, was built by China’s hydropower engineering and construction company Sinohydro and funded by the Export-Import Bank of China.

        The commissioning of the plant, which began construction in 2015, adds an additional 750 megawatts of power to the national grid….

      4. ltr

        “And why should we trust this little tweet?”

        https://english.news.cn/20230325/a0a34333904c44cdbce69de310db3c06/c.html

        March 25, 2023

        Zambia commissions Chinese-built hydropower plant to tackle power deficit

        CHIKANKATA, Zambia — Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema officially commissioned a Chinese-built hydropower plant, following the switching on of the plant’s fifth generator on Friday.

        The five generators at the Kafue Gorge Lower Hydropower Station, constructed by the Chinese firm Sinohydro Corporation Limited, added a total of 750 megawatts to the country’s national grid.

        Noting that China and Zambia completed the power station in “an ingenious way,” Hichilema said the project showed the friendly relationship between the two countries, and his government is committed to further growing the relationship with China.

        Hichilema added that the completion of the project was not only good for the country’s energy sector but for the economy as a whole as energy is critical to drive an economy.

        Chinese Ambassador to Zambia Du Xiaohui said that the project was an important symbol of China-Africa friendship and cooperation.

        China, he said, will continue to contribute to the all-weather, all-dimensional and high-quality cooperation with Zambia.

      5. ltr

        “And why should we trust this little tweet?”

        https://english.news.cn/20221118/bf3458e70a8646a4bc48dd75d80bb7f5/c.html

        November 18, 2022

        Chinese work ethic cheers 70-year-old former TAZARA worker
        The story of the Tanzania-Zambia Railway construction has often served as a reminder of the longstanding relationship between Zambia and China.

        LUSAKA — The story of the Tanzania-Zambia Railway construction has often served as a reminder of the longstanding relationship between Zambia and China.

        For John Mulenga, a 70-year-old Zambian man, the story evokes fond memories dating back to 1972 when he, as a youth, traveled from Ndola District in Copperbelt Province to Mpika District in Muchinga Province in search of employment.

        “I managed to get a job as a wages clerk with the Chinese company that was charged with the responsibility of constructing the railway in 1972. I was a 19-years-old lad at the time,” Mulenga recounted.

        The enthusiastic septuagenarian mentioned that it was during this period that he acquired knowledge and skills in railway management, which he shares readily whenever called upon.

        “I am able to articulate railway management issues quite well. And because of that, some people think that I obtained this wealth of knowledge overseas. The truth is that I have not even been to college or university. My Chinese supervisors ensured that I received well-grounded on-the-job training,” he said.

        Speaking to Xinhua in Ndola, his hometown, Mulenga confessed owing his work success to his Chinese supervisors, who he said gave him and his colleagues practical and relevant training.

        “The Chinese are good teachers who impart discipline and diligence. Those of us that had Chinese supervisors turned out well and were often sought after by prospecting employers,” he said.

        Mulenga further narrated that he went on to join the Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA), a company overseeing rail line operations that runs from Dar es Salaam in Tanzania to New Kapiri Mposhi in Zambia.

        “With the TAZARA, I started as a passenger train conductor in February 1976 and rose through the ranks. I retired as senior passengers services officer in 2007,” he stated.

        Among Mulenga’s noteworthy achievements so far is his contribution toward the drafting of a handbook for new TAZARA employees working in commercial departments. He has also written a number of articles on railway management….

      6. ltr

        And why should we trust this little tweet? Like —– tweets lies 24/7 so why not this person?
        And why should we trust this little tweet? Like —– tweets lies 24/7 so why not this person?
        And why should we trust this little tweet? Like —– tweets lies 24/7 so why not this person?

        [ Akende M’membe is Zambian. A Kingston University, London educated Barrister. Director of the Southern Africa journal “Pan-Africanism Today.” Notice then the demeaning of an African Barrister and journalist, and understand. ]

    2. Macroduck

      Xi flies from place to place on aircraft technology invented in the West. Chinese citizens drive automobiles based almost entirely on Western inventions. ltr types Chinese propaganda on a computer which runs almost entirely on technology invented in the West.

      The same is true for the much of modern technology. Xi tells the global South don’t work with the West.

      Same old ltr, hypocrite in everything she writes.

  6. ltr

    https://english.news.cn/20230405/2cedbc1db4f24364ac581512cded2900/c.html

    April 5, 2023

    China, Tanzania remember deceased Chinese experts assisting Tanzania

    DAR ES SALAAM — Tanzanian senior government officials on Monday joined the Chinese community living in the country at the Tomb-Sweeping Day memorial ceremony for Chinese experts who died during the construction of the Tanzania-Zambia Railway and the implementation of other China-Tanzania cooperation projects.

    The somber ceremony was held at the Chinese experts’ cemetery at Pugu on the outskirts of the commercial hub of Dar es Salaam.

    Speaking after observing a minute of silence in respect of the deceased Chinese experts, Deputy Minister for Works and Transport Atupele Mwakibete said the construction of the 1,860-kilometer railway line from Dar-es-Salaam in Tanzania to New Kapiri Mposhi in Zambia was very challenging.

    Mwakibete said the construction of the railway line required heroism and ingenuity by both the Chinese people, represented by their great engineers and workers, and the Tanzanian and Zambian peoples, who joined the Chinese for the construction of this railway line which passes through difficult terrain….

  7. baffling

    perhaps an additional trend line based on the few years prior to pandemic would help illustrate performance?

    1. pgl

      I agree. In fact suggestion would be to post real wages from early 2013 to early 2023. A decade time frame just strikes me as perfectly sensible.

  8. pgl

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/what-we-know-about-the-alleged-texas-mall-shooter/ar-AA1aT3Ow

    Authorities have identified the gunman who killed at least eight people and injured several others at a Dallas-area outlet mall before being shot dead by police as 33-year-old Mauricio Garcia, whose white supremacist sympathies are now being examined by federal investigators as they search for a motive. Garcia, who is believed to have acted alone, was in possession of an AR-15-style assault rifle, a handgun and was wearing a tactical vest at the time of the shootout, police said.
    According to the Associated Press, the gunman was wearing a patch on his chest with the letters “RWDS,” an acronym for “Right Wing Death Squad,” used by many far-right groups, including the Proud Boys. After investigating Garcia’s social media accounts, the FBI found hundreds of posts and images expressing white supremacist and neo-Nazi views, Rolling Stone reported. ABC’s local affiliate WFAA reported that Garcia had served in the U.S. Army in 2009 but was discharged over “mental health concerns.”

    A racist MAGA type with mental health concerns. But hey – don’t take away this 2nd Amendment right to carry an assault weapon into a shopping mall.

  9. pgl

    What if Dr. Chinn (or ltr) included in their graphs what happened to real wages over the 12/2012 to 12/2016 period (2nd Obama term). Its seems the nominal series rose by 9.23% while CPI rose by 4.94% over this four year period. So real wages had already risen by 4.09% before Trump took office.

    Now I just have to sit back and wait for a certain someone to accuse me of “moving the goal posts”!

    1. pgl

      Some in Texas have suggested that they succeed from the Union. Let them as our national murder rate per capita would immediately fall,

      1. baffling

        we have extremists in texas who believe protecting guns is more important that protecting lives. ironic given most of those folks are pro life on the abortion issue.

        1. pgl

          I watched Men in Black for like the 10th time this weekend. When the farmer goes out with his rifle to challenge the Alien who just crashed into his truck, the Alien (a “bug”) asked him to drop the rifle and the farmer said something about “my cold dead hand” Charleston Heston style. The bug replied “your proposal is acceptable”. Damn that movie was beyond funny!

        3. CoRev

          Baffled, we have some really crazy illogical people in Texas also. For instance linking 2 ?subhuman? Hispanic killers actions as routine and and premeditated: “another routine shooting in texas”
          and
          “this is accompanied by the recent killing of many immigrants at a homeless shelter, as somebody decided to mow them down with a vehicle”

          As I understand the vehicular case was a drunk driver running a red light, losing control of his vehicle, before overturned vehicle slid into the group at the bus stop. Which part of that incident do YOU think was previously decided/premeditated?

          The angry and desperately inadequate liberal mind is an amazement.

          1. Menzie Chinn Post author

            CoRev: Then your understanding is circumscribed. The driver might have been “under the influence”, but as far as I can tell, we are awaiting toxicology reports. As for “subhumans”, this is your elision – I think you assume that given the surname, the driver is what Governor Abbott terms an “illegal alien”. However, I have seen to documentation to this effect. If you have such documentation, I would welcome your sharing that information. In the absence of said documentation, I must conclude that you are (once again) imposing your preconceived notions on your discussion.

            I feel sorry for you.

          2. CoRev

            Menzie, and I feel sorry for you! I have used subhuman only after you first used it. Since, you now again link: ” As for “subhumans”, this is your elision – I think you assume that given the surname, the driver is what Governor Abbott terms an “illegal alien”.

            Using and linking these terms is an obvious projection of angry disrespect of those with different policy views. I did not use the term “illegal alien”. You have, and I only repeated your use of the term subhuman. Why do you want me to document “your preconceived notions”?

            We are currently living with and under those policies you prefer, and even the most modestly logical thinking individual is awed with their failures. The subconscious recognition of these policy failures is causing much of your anger, and that is why I feel sorry for you. There is nothing liberals can do, except blame others for their failed policies.

            I’m still waiting for the list of successful Biden policies.

            The denial and projection of the liberal mind is an amazement.

          3. Menzie Chinn Post author

            CoRev: You are not being responsive to those questions I have posed to you. Nor have you provided any documentation for you assertions.

          4. baffling

            corev, we can do this all day from texas. lots to share.
            https://www.texastribune.org/2023/05/09/bryan-slaton-expel-house-vote/

            texas republicans finally decided to take action on one of their conservative leaders. all he did was get a 19 year old intern drunk and rape her (she was too drunk to consent). now this is one of those conservative leaders who had piled on the lgbt crowd, demonizing them and accusing them of grooming, etc. all the while, the wicked turd pretended to be a social conservative concerned about family values. judging by his past work involving children, it will not be surprising if he is revealed to be a child predator. he has already shown a willingness to provide alcohol to underage in order to fullfill his sexual urges.

            or the texas attorney general Paxton, who has been indicted for federal crimes and wants the state to pay millions in tax payer dollars to cover his whistleblower case. note the affairs and other illicit behavior conducted by the conservative texan in the past…
            https://www.texastribune.org/2023/02/16/texas-attorney-general-ken-paxton-corruption-doj/

            then we can leave texas and discuss the sexual assaults by trump (found guilty in court) or the fraud that is George Santos. lots of role model behavior from these conservative leaders.

            don’t open this can of whooopa$$ corev, unless you want to lose. texas is a cesspool of poor behavior conducted by the right…

          5. baffling

            and since you prodded, covid, let me show you another example of the absurdity of conservatives in texas:
            https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/us/daniel-perry-texas-sentencing-wednesday/index.html

            a current army sergeant was killed during a black lives protest. a car driven by Perry drove into a group of protestors. then Perry shot one of the protestors from inside of his car. the man that was killed was an honorable army sergeant simply participating in his right to protest and assemble. he was carrying an ak47. he was killed because the fool in the car felt threatened by the weapon.

            but this is not where things get wacky, if you can believe it. the silly governor of texas wants to pardon the murder (he was convicted of murder) because he wants to protect gun rights.

            now let me play out a scenario, if that occurs. what that means is that if a Black Lives Matter protestor should encounter a demonstrator with a gun, who may be perceived as threatening, then that protestor has the right to shoot and kill the demonstrator with the gun in defense of stand your ground. if you support governor abbott, then you are saying it is open season on gun toting demonstrators. have at it, covid.

            we can continue this debate all month long, covid. there is no shortage of conservative idiots in texas.

          6. CoRev

            Menzie, again, why should I provide supporting documentation for YOUR assertions?

            Where’s that list of successful Biden policies?

            The angry, racist projecting, and failure denying liberal mind is an amazement.

          7. CoRev

            Baffled, bwa, ha, ha! A demonstrator carrying a legal firearm was shot by someone STOPPED/BLOCKED/THREATENED by both the demonstration and the sight of another legal firearm. What parts of ‘stand your ground” and “self defense” does you poor liberal mind not understand?

            The world, but especially Texas is full of stoopidly hypocritical liberal minds, and that is an amazement.

          8. pgl

            My oh my – CoRev just realized that JohnH has taken a big lead for the 2023 Troll of the Year. Come on CoRev – do try to catch up. We know you can do it!

          9. baffling

            covid, the shooter first drove into a crowd on the street. he was an instigator.

            but I just want to get this in writing from you. I see a person carrying an ak47. I instigate a confrontation with him. he looks at me funny, and I feel threatened. so I use my “stand my ground” laws and fatally shoot him at point blank range. this is what happened. are we good with this scenario? because if so, then it becomes open season on all those right wing nut jobs who proudly open carry ak47’s at demonstrations they have no business attending, attempting to intimidate with those weapons. you can’t have it both ways, covid.

          10. CoRev

            Baffled, Bwa, ha, ha I’m still laughing at your hypocrisy. It’s similar to your understanding of aging and age related conditions. Blaming them on life style (living) versus the alternative NOT LIVING.

            If I had a clue bat I would share it with you up against your head. Aging is watching your body’s systems and organs weaken and wear out. Wondering which will wear faster and finally quit. Diseases like Covid are harder on the aged for that reason. Get a clue.

            The arrogant ignorance and inability to admit that they know less than others is an amazement of the liberal mind. Living in the liberal head is always a challenge of patience. 😉

  11. Macroduck

    Off topic, Russian oil revenues –

    In all the back-and-forth, “Did not! Did so!” wrangling over the effect of oil sanctions on Russia, a distinction is often ignored – the effect on oil-sector revenue isn’t the same as the effect on Russia’s budget.

    Marketplace.org reports today that the FT reports that Russia is hiking taxes on oil companies again. That may be a misreading of the FT article, which seems to me to be a summary of Russia’s oil situation, including an April tax change, and taking account of recent oil revenue data:

    https://www.ft.com/content/f4b89276-efcf-4731-9ed3-7afea3be4c27

    Russian Urals oil trades at around Brent-minus-ten, a bigger discount than prior to sanctions. That has meant reduced, but still positive, cash flow for Russian producers. Back in April, the government decided to tax Russian oil firms as if there were no discounts:

    https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/021623-russia-to-use-dated-brent-in-tax-calculations-to-protect-state-budget-from-urals-discount

    Even then, it was understood that this change would not do much to close the budget hole caused by sanctions:

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-oil-tax-tweaks-seen-not-decisive-tackling-budget-hole-2023-02-14/

    The FT generally finds that sanctions are having an impact on Russia’s finances, and that the tax is cutting into oil firms’ ability to invest. With Brent back down to pre-invasion prices, deeply discounted Urals is selling below pre-invasion prices:

    https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

    Recent raggedy price movement in oil – reportedly based on recession fears, but never forget machine traders – can’t be good for Russian revenues, those of oil firms or the government.

    Now, some folks pretend “What about those mistaken forecasts of Russian economic performance?” is an apt response to pointing out the effect of sanctions on Russia. That’s classic “whataboutism”, meant to distract from the issue at hand. Sanctions have reduced Russian oil revenue and Russian government revenue, and have cut into oil sector investment.

    1. pgl

      “Russia’s new rules cover mineral extraction tax and excess profit tax levied on oil production. The new legislation sets limits on the Urals discount used as a baseline for taxation. If Urals is trading at a greater discount to Dated Brent than $34/b in April, then the MET and EPT will nevertheless be calculated based on a $34/b discount. This limit will be set at $31/b in May, $28/b in June and $25/b from July until the end of the year, the State Duma said in a statement. Platts assessed Urals at $45.45/b ex-Primorsk on Feb. 15, putting it at a $38.05/b discount to Forward Dated Brent, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. On Feb. 23, 2022, the day before Russia invaded Ukraine, the discount was $8.10/b.”

      Their statutory rate was formally increased. This little scheme likely makes the effective tax rate higher than the statutory rate.

      Now why can’t we tax multinationals this way instead of our habit of letting effective rates be far below the already low 21% statutory tax rates?

  12. Macroduck

    Off topic, financial crisis –

    Vox, as part of a series on financial crisis, carries a dispassionate assessment of crises in 2022-2023:

    https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/financial-instability-2022-2023-causes-risks-and-responses

    There are a couple of useful figures – Figure 1 a taxonomy of crisis types, Figure 2 a taxonomy of responses.

    Of interest to me, is to nobody else, is the variety of causes of each crisis. The UK bond plunge was the result of putting rooky ideologues in charge of national budget. LTX was a classic case of fraud. There is, however, a great deal of commonality. Tnere are five bank runs on the list. Two cases are identified as problems with liquidity in speciic markets, but remember that bank runs usually involve liquidity problems. The author, Timo Löyttyniemi, wisely notes the frequency of human error in these financial crises.

    A good reference for those who actually want to think about how things happen.

  13. Macroduck

    One more pesky off-topic comment, on Iran –

    Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is 84 years old and reportedly in failing health. Everything I read indicates there is no obvious successor. Mass executions have pushed protests off the streets, but there’s no sign the public mood has improved.

    The recent effort at hand-holding in the Middle East is certainly an improvement. What happens, in Iran and between Iran and other countries in the region, when Khamenei dies?

    1. CoRev

      MD claims: “… a very large reduction un greenhouse gas emission is possible in fossil fuel extraction…”.
      What is the percentage of reduction of non-H2O atmospheric GHGs by this proposed change?
      What is Climate Change as referenced in this article and its many internal links?
      What is the cost of that proposed change in fossil fuel extraction?
      What is the cost of that reduction in Climate Change?
      If you think the planet’s surface temperature is part of the climate, what reduction in it would this proposed change make?

      The data is readily available to answer these questions.

      Failure to answer these questions is even another indication of the shallowness of the liberal mind.

  15. Macroduck

    The Fed’s Senior Lending Officer Survey for Q1 is out. The gist is that standards have generally tightened (again) and that loan demand has cooled. Here’s a bit of the introduction to the report:

    “Regarding loans to businesses… tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to large and middle-market firms as well as small firms over the first quarter. Meanwhile, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for all commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories.

    “For loans to households,…lending standards tightened across all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans other than government-sponsored enterprise (GSE)-eligible and government residential mortgages, which remained basically unchanged. Meanwhile, demand weakened for all RRE loan categories. In addition, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Standards tightened for all consumer loan categories; demand weakened for auto and other consumer loans, while it remained basically unchanged for credit cards.”

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202304.htm

    On the subject of borrowing, BIS has a new study of long-term debt (over a business cycle) patterns and economic effects:

    https://www.bis.org/publ/work1098.htm

    Similar to Mian/Sufi/Verner results, with a focus on increasing the realism of economic modeling. Bring borrowing forward and you then face a reduction in future borrowing, with consequent slowing in demand.

    Looks like the reversal is underway:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=13jpl

    1. Moses Herzog

      See any similarities between crypto users and people who buy Ford cars??
      https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2022/11/24/ford-alerts-customers-that-certain-2020-2023-my-bronco-sport-and.html

      They can neither make valves or fuel injectors. For engines exploding with about 1600 miles on them. People who play crypto get what they ask for. People who buy Fords get what they ask for. Nissan are crap also in case anyone out there is wondering. Buy one, see if I cry for you.

  19. pgl

    Jury verdict comes in big time for E. Jean Carroll over Trump. $5 million in damages.

    Now the jury did say Trump sexually assaulted her but did not rule guilty on the rape charge. Something to do with Carroll admitting she was never sure Trump penetrated her. Now we do know what Stormy Daniels said about the lack of size in you know what for little Donald.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Do you think Carroll’s lawyers knew before they went to court that day that donald trump would mistake Carroll for Marla?? I do. I think her lawyers knew in advance donald would walk straight into that big clump of cow dung they set out for him. The woman he said “was not his type”. Orange abomination isn’t very good at talking when not answering children’s questions from Fox.

      1. pgl

        Did you see his attorney’s reaction to the verdict? TropiPOS actually claimed he proved there was no rape – just a sexual assault which I guess is AOK? Trump got the lawyer he wanted – alas.

        1. Moses Herzog

          Pretty well stated. I been told by my own family members I’m “misogynist”. But I think very very few common friends I have had, NONE of the girlfriends I have had, viewed me in that way (I’m left wondering if my close friends seem to have understood me better than my own family.) “You cant choose your family” Gaaaaaawwwwd do I know that to be true, but anywayz…….. Let’s say, for the moment, argument’s sake, it’s true and I have a negative view of women. How does donald trump say what he said during the video deposition about touching a woman’s private area, that “it’s ok”/”you can do that” to female celebrities “good or bad” “fortunately or unfortunately” “been true for thousands of years” WOW…….. Can you imagine being his wife/daughter/aunt/mother/sister and hearing him say that!?!?!?!!? It is unbelievable he says it with seemingly no personal shame. Not a single drop of shame. And American women, run out to vote for this….. slob…… in droves……. because…… WHY?!?!?!?!

          1. pgl

            The only two people that can compare to Trump are Bill Cosby and Harvey Weinstein. This disgusting trio is in a class all by themselves.

  21. ltr

    https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/05/real-wages-overall-and-leisure-hospitality#comment-298611

    Not exactly an answer to my question.

    “And why should we trust this little tweet? Like —– tweets lies 24/7 so why not this person?”

    [ Akende M’membe is Zambian. A Kingston University, London educated Barrister. Director of the Southern Africa journal “Pan-Africanism Today.” Notice however the demeaning of an African Barrister and journalist, who is explaining what is completely correct. ]

    2. pgl

      Are you some early stage Chinese version of ChatGPT? Sorry but I do not engage in the trash generated from corrupt version of AI.

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