The largest tank battle in WWII took place around Kursk, not far from where the current Ukrainian incursion is.
Source: Militaryland, accessed 8/9/2024.
This map corresponds to the blue rectangle in the below map for Kursk in 1943.
Source: Wikipedia, accessed 8/8/2024, edited by author.
The green X marks the approximate location of the ongoing Ukrainian operation.
Ukrainian cross-border mechanized offensive operations into Kursk Oblast that began on August 6 are continuing as part of a Ukrainian operational effort within Russian territory. ISW will not offer assessments about the intent of this Ukrainian operation in order to avoid compromising Ukrainian operational security. ISW will not make forecasts about what Ukrainian forces might or might not do or where or when they might do it. ISW will continue to map, track, and evaluate operations as they unfold but will not offer insight into Ukrainian planning, tactics, or techniques. ISW is not prepared to map control of terrain within Russia at this time and will instead map observed events associated with the Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory as well the maximalist extent of claims and unverified reports about Ukrainian advances. Maximalist claims and unverified reports about Ukrainian advances within Russia do not represent territory that ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces have seized or control. Inferring predictions about Ukrainian operations from ISW maps and assessments that do not explicitly offer such predictions is inappropriate and not in accord with their intended use.
Geolocated footage and Russian claims indicate that Ukrainian forces continued rapid advances further into Kursk Oblast on August 8, and Ukrainian forces are reportedly present in areas as far as 35 kilometers from the international border with Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces most certainly do not control all of the territory within the maximalist extent of Russian claims about Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast, however. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced as far as Kromskiye Byki and Molyutino (up to 35 kilometers from the international border and 17 kilometers southeast of Lgov) but noted that these are small groups not immediately trying to hold territory.[1] Russian milbloggers issued contradictory claims about Ukrainian positions in Sudzha (northeast of Sumy City and roughly 10 kilometers from the international border), with some milbloggers claiming that Ukrainian forces seized the settlement while other milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces only seized part of the settlement.[2] Geolocated footage published on August 8 indicates that Ukrainian forces likely advanced towards Russkoye Porechnoye (north of Sudzha), and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces also advanced further north of Sudzha along the 38K-024 highway near Anastasyevka.[3] Geolocated footage published on August 7 and 8 shows Ukrainian forces operating within Goncharovka (just west of Sudzha) and north of Zaoleshenka (northwest of Sudzha), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces seized Goncharovka.[4] A geolocated photo shows Ukrainian forces operating within Novoivanovka (10km north of the international border and northwest of Sudzha), and Russian milbloggers also claimed that Ukrainian forces seized Novoivanovka and Bogdanovka (northwest of Sudzha).[5] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces also advanced northwest of Sudzha into Malaya Loknya and to the outskirts of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye; northeast of Sudzha near Kruglenkoye, Martynovka, and Bolshoye Soldatskoye; and east of Sudzha near Mirny, although two Russian milbloggers denied claims that Ukrainian forces are operating near and within Bolshoye Soldatskoye.[6] Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack near Korenevo (north of Sumy City and roughly 23 kilometers north of the international border) and that Ukrainian forces attacked within Snagost (south of Korenevo) and near Olgovka (east of Korenevo).[7]
Russian milbloggers claimed that small Ukrainian armored groups are advancing further into the Russian rear and bypassing Russian fortifications before engaging Russian forces and then withdrawing from the engagements without attempting to consolidate control over their furthest advances.[8] Russian milbloggers noted that the prevalence of these armored groups is leading to conflicting reporting because Ukrainian forces are able to quickly engage Russian forces near a settlement and then withdraw from the area.[9] Ukrainian forces appear to be able to use these small armored groups to conduct assaults past the engagement line due to the low density of Russian personnel in the border areas of Kursk Oblast. Larger Ukrainian units are reportedly operating in areas of Kursk Oblast closer to the international border and are reportedly consolidating and fortifying some positions.[10]
Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are successfully fielding novel and innovative tactics and technological capabilities during operations in Kursk Oblast. Russian milbloggers have provided details on Ukrainian tactics and technological capabilities that they regard as innovative, but ISW will not describe such details at this time or point to specific sources in order to preserve Ukrainian operational security.
The Kremlin will almost certainly endeavor to retake Russian territory in Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces have seized and stop Ukrainian activity further into Russia, as substantial Ukrainian advances within Russia would be a strategic blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decades-long effort to cement a legacy of Russian stability, security, and geopolitical resurgence. Putin held a virtual meeting with Kursk Oblast Acting Head Alexey Smirnov on August 8 about Ukraine’s operations into the oblast and stated that he “generally know[s] the situation” but still would like to hear Smirnov’s assessment of the situation.[11] Smirnov and Putin did not discuss Russian attempts to repel Ukrainian forces and portrayed the Russian government as effectively working to ensure civilian safety and social and monetary compensation. Russian milbloggers have highlighted concerns over the safety of Russian civilians and disorganized civilian evacuations.[12] Putin likely assesses that he must respond to the perceived threat to civilians in order to assure the Russian public that the situation is under control and avoid significant domestic discontent. Smirnov claimed on August 7 that the situation is “under [Putin’s] personal control,” directly linking Russian success in repelling Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast and mitigating related civilian issues to Putin.[13] The Kremlin previously has portrayed itself as capable of swiftly responding to pro-Ukrainian raids into Russia, and the Kremlin likely assesses that significant Ukrainian territorial gains in Russia would pose a threat to the Kremlin’s efforts to frame itself as a stable regime in control of the internal security situation within Russia and an effective manager of the war in Ukraine.[14]
If Russian reporting on the situation in Kursk Oblast is accurate and if the Russian military command perceives the situation to be the same as Russian sources have described, then the Russian military command has an array of likely courses of action (COAs) it could pursue to respond to the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast. ISW is not prepared at this time to assess which of these possible COAs is most likely, and it is possible that the Russian military command may not rely on only one COA to respond to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. The Russian military command’s decision-making will be influenced by its perception of the size and capability of Ukrainian forces in the area, about which ISW makes no assessment.
…
Here is ISW’s latest map:
Fact Check: Fox News Aired Graphic Showing ‘Tim Walz’s Communist Agenda,’ Featuring Taxes on Couches?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/fact-check-fox-news-aired-graphic-showing-tim-walz-s-communist-agenda-featuring-taxes-on-couches/ar-AA1oxKxE?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=f844d27a0692418b9b26acaa76a48dcd&ei=11
OK this was satire but damn it is funny!
Tim Walz’s Communist Agenda
The seven listed agenda items included
unsupervised female health decisions,
rampant LGBTQIA+
rights, school lunches for unemployed minors,
medical care elderly, sick or injured,
taxes on corporate profits and couches,
free non-Christian college and
believes in ‘climate change’ hoax.
I see Fox news does not understand there is NO private sector in communism.
How pathetically dishonest is the NRA?
Fact Check: Posts Claim Harris and Walz Announced Gun Ban During Rally. Here’s What to Know
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fact-check-posts-claim-harris-and-walz-announced-gun-ban-during-rally-here-s-what-to-know/ar-AA1oxMbA?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=8c759250e18e4e2f87ef31ef3470f28e&ei=11
In a rally speech on Aug. 6, 2024, Harris said she and Walz will pass universal background checks, red flag laws and an assault weapons ban if she wins the presidential election in November. The pair did not announce a general “gun ban.” On Aug. 6, 2024, the National Rifle Association’s X account posted a video of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris giving a speech while her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, stood behind her. In the clip, she said: “And together, when we win in November, we are finally going to pass universal background checks, red flag laws and an assault weapons ban.”
In the X post, the NRA claimed the pair announced a “gun ban.” They wrote: “HARRIS-WALZ ANNOUNCE GUN BAN,” and, “They’re coming for our guns. Kamala Harris and Tim Walz want to ban commonly owned firearms.” One X user replied: “Military grade assault weapons are commonly owned firearms?”
Ukraine apparently send in some of their best trained elite forces – and are facing poorly equipped and trained Russian forces. It could become very costly for Russia if they refuse to divert troops from the current offensive in Donbas. But if they do divert those troops their offensive in the south will culminate. The brilliant strategic gain from this incursion is not so much in immediate military gains, but in what it will do to Russian troop deployments in the future. They had culled their defenses along the border with northern Ukraine to a bare minimum – which were run over in a few days by Ukraine. For the future all of their borders regardless of fighting or not will require a lot more defensive resource deployments (taking them away from the active front line).
NYT reported that the most sophisticated Russian missiles used against Ukraine are basically days to weeks out of the production line. So they are running very short and have no reserves.
From various readings Ukraine sent in several brigades, good formations husbanded from other missions. Suggests that drone swarms were used as “softening” fires.
This campaign reminds me of the Spring 1970 Incursion into Cambodia, different: the US had objectives and air support. As well as a plan to get the force out when mission or events allowed.
So you’re pretending to know that Ukraine:
1) Doesn’t have objectives.
2) Doesn’t have an exit plan.
How arrogant. How dishonest. How you.
What are the Kursk escapade objectives?
What is the exit when it goes south? (military term for fail)
How dishonest?
I was arrogant no I am old.
Who is asking – Putin?
Ukraine and anybody else fighting a war would not reveal objectives or exit strategy to the public – you should be old enough to know that.
See Ivan’s response.
You keep pretending to some superior knowledge of military thinking, but you write stuff like thus. So old, yeah, but arrogant, as well. Arrogance and ignorance go so well together.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/09/kursk-russia-ukraine-offensive-invasion-war-negotiations/
“Escapade”?
You are a putin joke. The end game is to get russia to withdraw from its immoral murderous invasion of ukraine. You probably believe that russia now has a right to defend itself after the kursk attack? Again, you are a russian apologist. Russia is wrong with its invasion of ukraine. Russian leadership should be tried and convicted at the conclusion of these events, under international supervision. Today, anybody who still defends russias actions should rot in hell. You are not human.
I would add: How weird.
No military attack has ever been done without an objective or exit plan.
Like the terrain in Ukraine is the same as it was in Cambodia. How drunk are you?
I had a lot of random/crazy thoughts while reading this really outstanding and terrific blog post. I shortened it just now to “Pulling for Ukraine. May God be with you and Jesus ‘has your back’ “
Weight lifter Olivia Reeves has won gold in the women’s 71k weight class. She snatched 117 kilos, a new world record. She attempted a record 150 kg in the clean and jerk, did a “Maxwell Smart” – missed it by that much.
She’s only 21 years old. She’ll be lifting pick-up trucks by the time she’s 30. Amazing.
Wrestlers and boxers had this problem (or on rare occasion “advantage”. I think for women this must be doubly ironic because their obsession with body weight. What was her actual weight, a half pound under the 71k??
Track and field closing events were the two 4 by 400 meter relays. The men finished for gold with 2:54. The women stole the show leading by a ton with a 3:15 time which was the 2nd fastest ever.
Trump was looking pretty weak and meek at his presser. He forgot his orange tan. And his hair combover was pretty flat. In addition to the incoherent ramblings. He is showing himself to be an old angry man. Still weird and creepy. But now boring. Rick stryker, how does it feel to be the main cheerleader for a listless candidate?
I am getting a little concerned about the old man. If he forgets his personal appearance he must be very sick or very very tired.
Off topic – the end of a shkey week:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1rEHF
BBB spreads aren’t back to where they were a week ago, but are down from this week’s peak and not high by historic norms. Looking like we’ll avoid a financial shock to the real economy.
And yet corporate bond yields are not that high:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAA
Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield
Off topic – handicapping the presidential election: We got polls. We got PredictIt. We got pundits. We’ve also got super forecasters.
Good Judgement’s super forecasters currently put the odds that Trump will lose the presidential election at 55.77%, win at 44.22%. A month ago, odds were put at roughly 61.4% that Trump would win, 38.6% that he’d lose.
Another data point.
Super forecasters? What is that? If you found someone who had correctly forecast every election in the last forty years, would that be a super forecaster?
The odds of flipping heads 10 times in a row is about 1 in 1,000. So the odds of someone correctly picking the winners of the last 10 presidential elections just by flipping a coin is about 1 in 1,000. That means there would be over 300,000 people in the US who could be “super forecasters” just by flipping a coin.
Distinguishing skill from luck is not easy to do.
There is a pretty extensive literature on the super forecasters phenomenon. If you’re actually curious, feel free to look it up. Not my job to educate you.
I dunno. Seems to be mostly based on hype from one popular book about on par with Glassman and Hassett’s DOW 36,000. Their statistical methods regarding accuracy are deliberately opaque and they have turned it into a fee for service cash cow at $10,000 a pop.
Glassman and Hassett’s DOW 36000 was based on a total misrepresentation of cash flows by assuming cash flows are the same as profits even though even a freshman in college knows cash flows = profits MINUS investments in new tangible assets required for growth.
Their incredibly stupid paper assumed that the discount rate should equal the risk-free rate as if there were no premium for bearing systematic risk.
Yea these two are so stupid that only Trump would hire either one of them to be on the CEA.
Looking over the 10-Q for Trump Media. In the last 3 months, revenues came in just under $840 thousand while operating costs were nearly $20 million. But there’s hope for little Ricky Stryker. Interest income reached $2 million. MAGA?!
As with all Trump business endeavors the exit strategy is the same: Get the heck out of there before Trump does.
‘Baffled and alarmed’: Trump team insiders reveal donors are scared as campaign flails
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/baffled-and-alarmed-trump-team-insiders-reveal-donors-are-scared-as-campaign-flails/ar-AA1osuX2?ocid=BingNewsSerp
Some financial advice for these Trump donors:
(1) Don’t waste another dime on this loser;
(2) Sell your Trump Media stock now as it is about to go bankrupt.
I had asked earlier who was funding these Stolen Valor aka Swift Boat II smears. Now we know:
Harlan Crow helped fund Swiftboating. Trump campaign continues that legacy in Walz attack
https://www.rawstory.com/harlan-crow-helped-fund-swiftboating-trump-campaign-continues-that-legacy-in-walz/
Seems to you? You regularly cast doubt without knowledge. You’ve done it here. Once you cast doubt in ignorance, you double down, insisting on your snap judgement regardless of what new evidence is presented. But you’re nobody. “Seems to you” doesn’t mean anything.
You’ve spent what? Fifteen minutes checking out the popular literature? You denigrate Tetlock’s book by comparing it to Glassman and Hassett. Have you read Tetlock’s book? Seems unlikely, unless you’re an awfully fast reader.
You should read Tetlock. You’d read that snap judgment, clinging to your first notions, attaching ego to those judgments, are all bad for clear analysis.
Read Tetlock and grow up little.