Prediction Markets: RCP Average Flips

The RealClearPolitics betting average has typically lagged PredictIt, which flipped on 7/31. RCP’s betting average flipped on August 8, and now looks like this (approx 11:24 CT):

Source: RCP, accessed 8/10/2024, 11:20am CT.

The above depicts time series of unweighted averages. Here’s the individual platform data as of latest:

Source: RCP, accessed 8/10/2024.

Note the low for Harris is from Polymarket (mentioned in Bloomberg), while the highest for Trump is Bovada and Bwin. Highest for Harris is is PredictIt. Of these, only PredictIt is legally accessible to US residents (as I understand it). If you’ve ever talked to (even a well-informed) foreigner about US politics, you might appreciate the greater information set a typical American has relative to a typical foreigner (no aspersions cast: a typical German has a much much better appreciation of a German politics than a typical American, even one who has spent better part of a year in the country).

 

 

 

5 thoughts on “Prediction Markets: RCP Average Flips

  1. pgl

    Jesse Ventura Rips ‘Rich White Boy’ Donald Trump as ‘Biggest Draft Dodger’
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/jesse-ventura-rips-rich-white-boy-donald-trump-as-biggest-draft-dodger/ar-AA1ozIoZ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=bb84d772ef2d4f64b89377ca50125230&ei=10

    You can watch Ventura here. He tells it like it is ripping little boy JD Vance.

    Hmmm – I wonder if little Brucie Hall is even allowed to watch this. I kind of doubt Kelly Anne would let the little boy.

  2. Moses Herzog

    Hahahahahahah!!!!! Menzie, I don’t even disagree with you. I don’t disagree with you Menzie, but you kinda shocked me, Don’t run for political office Menzie. You know how I am, but what you said, is semi-offensive “(even a well-informed) foreigner about US politics, you might appreciate the greater information set a typical American has relative to a typical foreigner (no aspersions cast: a typical German has a much much better appreciation of a German politics than a typical American, even one who has spent better part of a year in the country).”

    Something I would have internally spoken inside my mind at the dinner table with my GF’s Mom, but didn’t let go outside my mouth Menzie.

  3. Moses Herzog

    Hahahahahahah!!!!! Menzie, I don’t even disagree with you. I don’t disagree with you Menzie, but you kinda shocked me, Don’t run for political office Menzie. You know how I am, but what you said, is semi-offensive “(even a well-informed) foreigner about US politics, you might appreciate the greater information set a typical American has relative to a typical foreigner (no aspersions cast: a typical German has a much much better appreciation of a German politics than a typical American, even one who has spent better part of a year in the country).”

    Something I would have internally spoken inside my mind at the dinner table with my GF’s Mom, but didn’t let go outside my mouth Menzie.

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