A few days ago, Eric Hovde spoke about impending mass layoffs. I couldn’t figure out what he was talking about; here’re some indicators for Wisconsin, and for the nation.
Figure 1: Wisconsin Mass layoff notifications, by month of notification (blue, left scale), and JOLTS layoffs, s.a. (tan, right scale), both in thousands. Source: DWD, BLS (JOLTS).
As of 8/13, the August count is 247, so somewhat of a rebound in August, but not much. JOLTS indications of layoffs (not just mass layoffs) are declining through June (latest available data).
If Hovde meant at the national level, I’m not sure what he meant, either.
Figure 2: Layoffs per month, 000’s (black, left scale), as share of employment (red, right scale). Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.
If anybody can illuminate what Mr. Hovde means, please send me ideas.
“If anybody can illuminate what Mr. Hovde means, please send me ideas.”
What he means is that if you are in the MAGA cult, what matters is not reality but “alternative facts.” You must be willing to debase yourself on behalf of your dear leader to prove your loyalty.
Large layoff announcements make headlines. Headlines are what end up in the public consciousness, not data. Hovde is helping the public to misinterpret their world. As a public service.