Not from the Onion, but rather from the Daily Signal, mouthpiece of the Heritage Foundation:
The Treasury Department under President Joe Biden has refused to hand over documents showing how officials decided to alter the definition of a recession after the first two quarters of 2022 saw declines in gross domestic product, the traditional definition of a recession.
The Heritage Foundation filed a Freedom of Information Act request on July 6, asking Treasury for internal communications containing the terms “recession,” “alternative definition of recession,” and “alternative recession measurements.” (The Daily Signal is The Heritage Foundation’s news outlet.)
Here’s the lawsuit cover page.
Link.
I suppose it’s interesting to know what Treasury thinks signals a recession, but as a basis for a lawsuit, I think it’s a pretty silly.
I’ve never worked at Treasury, but I talked to plenty Treasury economists while at CEA, and I’m pretty sure the economists there are aware that the NBER is the most official arbiter of recessions in the US. Just sayin’.
Treasury? Not the Bureau of Economic Analysis? Not the Council of Economic Advisors? Commerce Department? Office of Planetary Protection?
Officiousness is one thing, but lazy officiousness won’t do. Its reputation as a pretend think tank is all Heritage has. Sloppy work like this does damage to that reputation. Grounds for impeachment, I say!
“The term “recession” is defined by the Board of the Federal Reserve as a “significant decline in economic activity spreading across the economy, lasting more than a few months.” Economic Information Newsletter, Fed. Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Feb. 2009) (Ex. 1). The International Monetary Fund likewise defines recession as “two consecutive quarters of …”
Good to know these clowns know how to check with the St. Louis FED even if it is not the NBER. But these clowns prefer the IMF over American institutes. Heritage has turned Marxist!
‘Since Biden took office in 2021, inflation has outpaced wage increases in 27 of the past 31 months. According to Antoni, the Heritage researcher, the average American worker pays $4.97 per hour under Biden in the hidden tax of inflation, effectively doubling how much he or she pays in federal income tax. The typical American family with two parents working has lost more than $5,000 in annual income.’
Did they cut and paste this trash from a Kudlow show? It was written back in Dec. 2023. I wonder how this squares with reality if we included more research months.
Conspiracy of silence? Well, China has resumed publishing unemployment data since December, after jiggering the data to show a lower jobless rate. The news doesn’t look good:
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html
Youth unemployment rose to 17.1% in July from 13.2% in June. July’s tally includes new graduates, and that accounts for some of the rise, but the level is the level.
They are fully aware that all serious economists use NBER to determine a recession. This is just a fishing expedition trying to catch somewhere that a lower level official said something that can be misquoted or taken out of context to create a “scandal” before the election. I am sure they will drop that lawsuit the day after the election.
They are fully aware that all serious economists use NBER to determine a recession. This is just a fishing expedition trying to catch somewhere that a lower level official said something that can be misquoted or taken out of context to create a “scandal” before the election. I am sure they will drop that lawsuit the day after the election.
When in Philly one must visit either Pat’s King of Steaks or Geno’s as their cheesesteaks are THE BEST. But do not be a moron and ask for Swiss cheese, which JD Vance just did. Yea – he is WEIRD!
There’s a new sign of financial stress in the news. “Payment in kind” is the legal euphemism for deferred interest payments. PIK is sometimes agreed in the original loan, sometimes a way of avoiding default or cash-flow distress:
https://fortune.com/2024/08/18/payment-in-kind-pik-corporate-debt-strategy-private-credit-fund/
Private equity and private credit firms are generally showing signs of stress due to high rates, and responding to their troubles by adopting riskier financial strategies to maintain income and to put lipstick ontheir books. These firms, like most of the rest of us, didn’t anticipate the persistence of high borrowing costs engineered by the Fed.
That’s hardly surprising, since many of these firms exist as a response to low investment returns in the period of near-zero overnight rates. Cratering asset values in 2022 and high funding costs since don’t fit the business model.
https://www.tiktok.com/@meidastouch/video/7405051810836221226?embed_source=121374463%2C121451205%2C121439635%2C121433650%2C121404359%2C121351166%2C121331973%2C120811592%2C120810756%3Bnull%3Bembed_fullscreen&refer=embed&referer_url=www.msn.com%2Fen-us%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Fdemocrats-take-on-trump-with-devastating-law-order-parody-during-dnc%2Far-AA1p8cOf%3Focid%3Dmsedgdhp%26pc%3DU531%26cvid%3Dc749fd3d297740f6993111fa943d7602%26ei%3D6&referer_video_id=7405051810836221226
Two minute TikTok appearing at the DNC where Trump is parodied in a Law and Order episode!
If you are angry over those Swift Boat II lies (you should be) get a load of the sliming of Walz’s wife by the National Review:
The Walz family and their fertility treatments
https://jabberwocking.com/the-walz-family-and-their-fertility-treatments/
Kevin Drum calls out the National Review as he explains what the latest slime attempt is about:
‘Walz usually talks about the “fertility treatments” he and his wife got in order to have children, but occasionally refers to it by the common term IVF. In fact, as the New York Times reports, the Walzes actually used IUI, a different kind of treatment that’s often casually referred to under the IVF umbrella but isn’t technically IVF. So now you know. This is a bit like saying you got pulled over by a police officer when it was really a sheriff’s deputy. But of course the nitwits on the right have to insist that it’s a big fat lie and Walz has been exposed as trying to fool everyone. Jesus.’
The MAGA morons are disgusting lizards (with all apologies to actual lizards).
IUI has not been declared anathema by the Catholics.
IVF is anathema bc fertization is done outside the uterus, numerous fertilized zygotes become excess.
Church is concerned that IUI sperm is inserted in uterus outside the connubial/natural action.
IUI is quite different from IVF,
Our resident know nothing troll pretends he is a fertility expert? Dude – you are a worthless moron.
I am correct in the ecclesiastical points as they regard fertility procedures, you can be specific what I erred on
You are a disgusting troll that NO ONE here wants you to comment again.
I do know a bit about IVF. One of my 5 grandchildren is IVF. Two of my 4 step grandchildren are IVF.
No expert but intensely familiar with two women who went that way,
And you support Trump-Vance. You are a heartless fool.
BTW – Kevin Drum has a comment section. I see that you have decided not to place a comment there. Why? Oh yea – you are a little coward. Got it!
neither iui nor ivf should be of any concern by the government or church, as far as a woman is concerned. people need to stop peaking into other folks homes. it is creepy. like a peeping tom. it is not your business, so quit trying to make it so.
I like to look at FRED’s single page dashboard showing all nine business cycle indicators used by the NBER on one page. You can definitely see a recession in 2020 as everything is down. But in 2022 — some are down, some are flat and some are up. You would have to squint hard and use your imagination to make out a recession. It illustrates why the NBER doesn’t use the simple 2-quarter GDP rule as it can be misleading about the actual activity of the economy.
https://fredaccount.stlouisfed.org/public/dashboard/84408
we have not had a recession since trump led the economy down a collapse a few years ago. trump owns that recession.
Checking with FRED on real GDP as of 2022QII as compared to potential real GDP (CBO measure) for the same quarter.
The former was 99.67% of the latter. So the output gap was a mere 0.33%. Anyone who thinks that defines a recession is dumber than Steve Koptis or Bruce Hall.