https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – AUGUST 2024
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Over the past 4 months, CPI has risen by only 0.3%. Annualized this is only 1% per year.
Good old EJ Antoni is doing his best to misrepresent. Gee – cherry picking starting point for real weekly earnings is SO clever. And my – we do not have food price deflation. Harris must be stealing your cat to cook for dinner.
Missouri’s Supreme Court has ruled that an abortion referendum question will remain on the November ballot. So far, every such ballot question has resulted in restoration of abortion rights.
Missouri is very likely to go for Trump, even more likely to elect a Republican to the Senate, but abortion ballot questions are good for Democratic turn-out and can swing some down-ballot elections.
Brent oil is now at $70 – a level where it becomes risky to develop more fracking production in the US. There is a reason so many auctioned off exploration licenses are not being used. You just can’t get risk willing capital to come in at such low price levels. Natural gas at $2 has the same problem. You have to transport it, liquify it, and ship it long distances to overseas markets. Very hard to get any profit out of it at $2. For both there is also the problem that demand will likely drop substantially both domestic and overseas. What is the chance of increased prices/profits if demand is decreasing – not something I would invest my own money into.
The natural gas market is not as globalized as the oil market, but oil prices serve to increase the exposure of gas producers to international market conditions. Which is implicit in the point you are making. So, China.
How long China’s inventories and weak economy will remain a drag on oil prices I can’t say. For now, though, the U.S. remains the healthiest large economy, and China remains the largest sick economy.
Completely agree. China is a major driver of demand – probably at least in top 3 for oil imports. Since the production is slow to adjust the prices can be drastically affected by a slowdown in any major user. China also one of the best organized effort to shift towards alternative sources.
“Natural gas at $2 has the same problem. You have to transport it, liquify it, and ship it long distances to overseas markets. Very hard to get any profit out of it at $2.”
That’s the Henry Hub price. Natural gas domestically can be sent via pipes without the liquification process. EU natural gas prices are about 5 times this amount. Asian prices are over 6 times this price.
But note $2 is so low that domestic natural gas companies are not covering production costs. And yes the cost of shipping it long distances are very high.
And you are right. At $70 a barrel of oil, the frackers are not making much in profits. Which is why this drill baby drill nonsense is bad business.
Domestic NG producers have been desperately trying to get set up to export more to EU because, as you say, they cannot make any money on the domestic pipeline gas (at $2). But the markets in EU are likely to be reduced, as more NG arrives via pipelines from non-Russia producers – and EU is accelerating its shift to alternative energy anyway. Alternative energy is much cheeper than liquid NG energy (and about equal to pipeline NG energy).
Henry Hub has been around $2 since Feb 2023 suggesting that US is producing more than our markets can use – and exports are not able to take enough of that production.
So even on natural gas the drill baby drill is likely to be nonsense.
natural gas prices have stayed low because we came out of last winter with our supplies around 37% above normal, & were expected to exceed our storage capacity before the summer was over…even with our major producers cutting back production all year, gas storage is still 11% above normal now…
it’s worse at the Waha hub in west Texas; natural gas prices have been negative more often than they’ve been positive….that means producers have to pay (the few available) pipelines to take it away, or illegally flare or vent that methane into the atmosphere…(aside: anyone notice how high atmospheric methane is now?)
the natural gas surplus persists in W Texas because its a byproduct of oil production…E&Ps stay in the black by selling their oil at a profit, even if they have to pay someone to take the gas surplus off their hands…
in March, the Dallas Fed energy survey asked oil execs In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells?
The average price across the entire sample is approximately $39 per barrel, up from $37 last year. Across regions, the average price necessary to cover operating expenses ranges from $31 to $45 per barrel. Almost all respondents can cover operating expenses for existing wells at current prices.
Large firms (with crude oil production of 10,000 barrels per day or more as of the fourth quarter of 2023) require prices of $26 per barrel to cover operating expenses for existing wells, based on the average of company responses. That compares with $44 for small firms (fewer than 10,000 barrels per day).
they then asked: In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well?
For the entire sample, firms need $64 per barrel on average to profitably drill, higher than the $62-per-barrel price when this question was asked last year. Across regions, average breakeven prices to profitably drill range from $59 to $70 per barrel. Breakeven prices in the Permian Basin average $65 per barrel, $4 higher than last year. Almost all firms in the survey can profitably drill a new well at current prices. (The WTI spot price was $83 per barrel during the survey period.)
Large firms (with crude oil production of 10,000 barrels per day or more as of the fourth quarter of 2023) require a $58-per-barrel price to profitably drill, based on the average of company responses. That compared with $67 for small firms (fewer than 10,000 barrels per day).
Good boy Stevie – copy and past the NOMINAL figures. I guess you never learned to inflation adjust anything. Which is why we rely on our host.
I believe you were referring to the inflation price adjusted value of oil, so I just provided a means to adjust. Now you can argue that there are many different markets for oil so WTI or Southern Illinois sweet don’t represent the “market” and that’s true to some extent, but the various oil markets do move in relatively close tandem.
Gee – you and little Stevie should get together and write a text on oil economics. Oh wait – the publisher would have to price it as less than a $1 a copy. There was a lot more wrong with Stevie’s post that I was too kind to mention. And Brucie was too dumb to notice.
BTW – your neighbors hope you enjoyed your dinner last night since it featured their former dog. MAGA!
For those like pgl who get snarky about inflation adjusted pricing in response to Steven Kopits comment, perhaps they can use actual quantity changes. https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf
Then we don’t have to worry about apples and oranges.
Hey Brucie – do you even know how to read legends in the graphs of our host’s post. Your stupid source has nothing to do with BEA data. Now maybe you and Stevie can flail around with EIA data that neither one of you remotely understand. But that is not what our host used for his chart.
Now you have two choices: (1) go to the BEA and find the data that he used for nominal figures and the price-level (which we KNOW you do not have the brains to do; or (2) beg our host to explain what he did VERY SLOWLY so you might follow.
BTW – the adults here know how to find price level data from the BEA and I’m sure the adults here can find things like exports and imports by sector. But we want to amuse ourselves watching you continue to prove the obvious – Brucie boy is even more incompetent than Trump!
Go to tables only and check out table 11. The data is all there in inflation adjusted terms. But could little Stevie bother to do this? Of course not. And his little minnie me Bruce Hall goes to all sorts of places and needless trouble because Brucie boy cannot read at the first grade level. Which means boys and girls – Brucie boy will continue to WASTE our time with his utter nonsense. That’s what Brucie boy does!
Debate blogging?
Is there a transcript of last night’s debate? We know Trump lied a lot but I want to select the biggest whopper of them all.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/shes-spun-him-a-thousand-times
Josh Marshall did live blog the debate.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – AUGUST 2024
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Over the past 4 months, CPI has risen by only 0.3%. Annualized this is only 1% per year.
Good old EJ Antoni is doing his best to misrepresent. Gee – cherry picking starting point for real weekly earnings is SO clever. And my – we do not have food price deflation. Harris must be stealing your cat to cook for dinner.
Missouri’s Supreme Court has ruled that an abortion referendum question will remain on the November ballot. So far, every such ballot question has resulted in restoration of abortion rights.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/09/10/missouri-abortion-amendment-november-ballot-court/
Missouri is very likely to go for Trump, even more likely to elect a Republican to the Senate, but abortion ballot questions are good for Democratic turn-out and can swing some down-ballot elections.
US trade surplus in oil and oil products, per the EIA (PAIMPORT, 4atab, STE0) * Monthly Brent Price
2020 $10,089
2021 $1,598
2022 $42,838
2023 $50,640
2024 $69,015
2025 $82,900
I think 2025 will come in below expectations, but in any event, that’s more or less the implied line from the EIA.
Good boy Stevie – copy and past the NOMINAL figures. I guess you never learned to inflation adjust anything. Which is why we rely on our host.
Oil products’ history are market priced. Estimates are WAG’s aka some EIA model, which may assume price inflation……..
That is nothing more than gibberish. Then again all you write is gibberish.
Brent oil is now at $70 – a level where it becomes risky to develop more fracking production in the US. There is a reason so many auctioned off exploration licenses are not being used. You just can’t get risk willing capital to come in at such low price levels. Natural gas at $2 has the same problem. You have to transport it, liquify it, and ship it long distances to overseas markets. Very hard to get any profit out of it at $2. For both there is also the problem that demand will likely drop substantially both domestic and overseas. What is the chance of increased prices/profits if demand is decreasing – not something I would invest my own money into.
I know I’m a broken record, but – China.
The natural gas market is not as globalized as the oil market, but oil prices serve to increase the exposure of gas producers to international market conditions. Which is implicit in the point you are making. So, China.
How long China’s inventories and weak economy will remain a drag on oil prices I can’t say. For now, though, the U.S. remains the healthiest large economy, and China remains the largest sick economy.
Completely agree. China is a major driver of demand – probably at least in top 3 for oil imports. Since the production is slow to adjust the prices can be drastically affected by a slowdown in any major user. China also one of the best organized effort to shift towards alternative sources.
Crude Oil Imports by Country
https://www.worldstopexports.com/crude-oil-imports-by-country/
Below are the 15 countries that imported the highest dollar value worth of crude oil during 2023.
China: US$336.5 billion (24.8% of imported crude oil)
United States: $172.4 billion (12.7%)
India: $140.1 billion (10.3%)
South Korea: $86.2 billion (6.3%)
Japan: $81.1 billion (6%)
Netherlands: $55.1 billion (4.1%)
Germany: $45.5 billion (3.4%)
Italy: $38.4 billion (2.8%)
Spain: $37.2 billion (2.7%)
Thailand: $34.6 billion (2.5%)
United Kingdom: $32.5 billion (2.4%)
France: $31.3 billion (2.3%)
Singapore: $27.4 billion (2%)
Taiwan: $25.1 billion (1.8%)
Belgium: $23.1 billion (1.7%)
Actually China is #1. US imports a lot but exports even more.
Global price of LNG, Asia
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PNGASJPUSDM
Higher than the same price for the EU and over six times the Henry Hub price. Of course Asian natural gas prices are always a bit higher.
“Natural gas at $2 has the same problem. You have to transport it, liquify it, and ship it long distances to overseas markets. Very hard to get any profit out of it at $2.”
That’s the Henry Hub price. Natural gas domestically can be sent via pipes without the liquification process. EU natural gas prices are about 5 times this amount. Asian prices are over 6 times this price.
But note $2 is so low that domestic natural gas companies are not covering production costs. And yes the cost of shipping it long distances are very high.
And you are right. At $70 a barrel of oil, the frackers are not making much in profits. Which is why this drill baby drill nonsense is bad business.
Domestic NG producers have been desperately trying to get set up to export more to EU because, as you say, they cannot make any money on the domestic pipeline gas (at $2). But the markets in EU are likely to be reduced, as more NG arrives via pipelines from non-Russia producers – and EU is accelerating its shift to alternative energy anyway. Alternative energy is much cheeper than liquid NG energy (and about equal to pipeline NG energy).
Henry Hub has been around $2 since Feb 2023 suggesting that US is producing more than our markets can use – and exports are not able to take enough of that production.
So even on natural gas the drill baby drill is likely to be nonsense.
natural gas prices have stayed low because we came out of last winter with our supplies around 37% above normal, & were expected to exceed our storage capacity before the summer was over…even with our major producers cutting back production all year, gas storage is still 11% above normal now…
it’s worse at the Waha hub in west Texas; natural gas prices have been negative more often than they’ve been positive….that means producers have to pay (the few available) pipelines to take it away, or illegally flare or vent that methane into the atmosphere…(aside: anyone notice how high atmospheric methane is now?)
the natural gas surplus persists in W Texas because its a byproduct of oil production…E&Ps stay in the black by selling their oil at a profit, even if they have to pay someone to take the gas surplus off their hands…
in March, the Dallas Fed energy survey asked oil execs
In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells?
The average price across the entire sample is approximately $39 per barrel, up from $37 last year. Across regions, the average price necessary to cover operating expenses ranges from $31 to $45 per barrel. Almost all respondents can cover operating expenses for existing wells at current prices.
Large firms (with crude oil production of 10,000 barrels per day or more as of the fourth quarter of 2023) require prices of $26 per barrel to cover operating expenses for existing wells, based on the average of company responses. That compares with $44 for small firms (fewer than 10,000 barrels per day).
they then asked:
In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well?
For the entire sample, firms need $64 per barrel on average to profitably drill, higher than the $62-per-barrel price when this question was asked last year. Across regions, average breakeven prices to profitably drill range from $59 to $70 per barrel. Breakeven prices in the Permian Basin average $65 per barrel, $4 higher than last year. Almost all firms in the survey can profitably drill a new well at current prices. (The WTI spot price was $83 per barrel during the survey period.)
Large firms (with crude oil production of 10,000 barrels per day or more as of the fourth quarter of 2023) require a $58-per-barrel price to profitably drill, based on the average of company responses. That compared with $67 for small firms (fewer than 10,000 barrels per day).
more detail, with multicolored graphs:
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2024/2401#tab-questions
since most oil companies are headquartered in Texas, this Dallas Fed survey is a good proxy for conditions nationally
Here is a source of oil prices (nominal and real) since 1946 (at least according to this source). It ends in November 2023, but it shouldn’t be too difficult to extend to current date with a little translation. Also has monthly pricing since January 2011.
https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-prices/historical-crude-oil-prices-table/
The post was about the quantity of oil and little Brucie gives us a series on the price of oil. Yep — he does not know the difference.
You never fail to disappoint.
Good boy Stevie – copy and past the NOMINAL figures. I guess you never learned to inflation adjust anything. Which is why we rely on our host.
I believe you were referring to the inflation price adjusted value of oil, so I just provided a means to adjust. Now you can argue that there are many different markets for oil so WTI or Southern Illinois sweet don’t represent the “market” and that’s true to some extent, but the various oil markets do move in relatively close tandem.
You’re welcome.
Gee – you and little Stevie should get together and write a text on oil economics. Oh wait – the publisher would have to price it as less than a $1 a copy. There was a lot more wrong with Stevie’s post that I was too kind to mention. And Brucie was too dumb to notice.
BTW – your neighbors hope you enjoyed your dinner last night since it featured their former dog. MAGA!
For those like pgl who get snarky about inflation adjusted pricing in response to Steven Kopits comment, perhaps they can use actual quantity changes.
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf
Then we don’t have to worry about apples and oranges.
Apples! Like the ones they make in Cupertino California? Yea – little Brucie had leftover smart phones for breakfast!
Hey Brucie – do you even know how to read legends in the graphs of our host’s post. Your stupid source has nothing to do with BEA data. Now maybe you and Stevie can flail around with EIA data that neither one of you remotely understand. But that is not what our host used for his chart.
Now you have two choices: (1) go to the BEA and find the data that he used for nominal figures and the price-level (which we KNOW you do not have the brains to do; or (2) beg our host to explain what he did VERY SLOWLY so you might follow.
BTW – the adults here know how to find price level data from the BEA and I’m sure the adults here can find things like exports and imports by sector. But we want to amuse ourselves watching you continue to prove the obvious – Brucie boy is even more incompetent than Trump!
https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20goods%20and%20services%20trade
Go to tables only and check out table 11. The data is all there in inflation adjusted terms. But could little Stevie bother to do this? Of course not. And his little minnie me Bruce Hall goes to all sorts of places and needless trouble because Brucie boy cannot read at the first grade level. Which means boys and girls – Brucie boy will continue to WASTE our time with his utter nonsense. That’s what Brucie boy does!