From the CPI release:
Figure 1: CPI – food at home (blue), ERS forecast as of January (red triangle), ERS forecast as of August (light blue square), Chained CPI – food at home (light green), all normalized to 2020M01=1.00. Chained food at home CPI component seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (in logs). Source: BLS, USDA ERS, and author’s calculations.
Note that food at home prices are essentially at January 2024 levels, regardless of using the official CPI, or the chained CPI. Given August prices, the ERS August forecast (based on pre-August release data) suggests a slight downward movement in the remaining months. However, since the prediction interval is 0.4% to 2.0% (for y/y point prediction of 1.2%), price increases are very possible in the remainder of the year.
How have Midwest prices fared, by comparison. Using the B/C city size category, I obtain the following picture.
Figure 2: CPI – food at home nationwide (blue), food at home for Midwest (B/C cities) (brown), all normalized to 2020M01=1.00. Midwest at home food CPI component seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (in logs). Source: BLS, USDA ERS, and author’s calculations.
“Note that food at home prices are essentially at January 2024 levels”
The chart suggests food at home prices rose by a total of 20% during 2021 and 2022 but have not risen much at all since 2023. So when Trump, Vance, and his cheerleading MAGA morons claim these prices are up 50%, they are …. what’s the word I’m looking for here .. oh yea – LYING!
MAGA moron JDVance strikes again!
JD Vance told far-right podcast the Civil War is still ongoing and he’s with the South
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/jd-vance-told-far-right-podcast-the-civil-war-is-still-ongoing-and-he-s-with-the-south/ar-AA1qtTfn?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=48ded2871f654f49b70a5bc757fccac7&ei=19
In an interview on a far-right podcast, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) invoked the Civil War, and suggested to the hosts that he’s on the side of the Confederacy. Conservative media outlet the Bulwark recently highlighted Vance’s appearance in a 2021 episode of the Viva Frei podcast, in which he told hosts David Freiheit and Robert Barnes that in his view, the Civil War never really ended. Rather, the Hillbilly Elegy author posited that the North and the South are still battling for control of culture and the political narrative. And he made it clear he was on the side battling the “Northern woke people.” “American history is a constant war between Northern Yankees and Southern Bourbons, where whichever side the hillbillies are on, wins,” Vance said.” And that’s kind of how I think about American politics today, is like, the Northern Yankees are now the hyper-woke, coastal elites. The Southern Bourbons are sort of the same old-school Southern folks that have been around and influential in this country for 200 years. And it’s like the hillbillies have really started to migrate towards the Southern Bourbons instead of the Northern woke people. That’s just a fundamental thing that’s happening in American politics.”
Mother of effing pearl – did no one tell this moron that the Civil War was about Southern plantation owners having slaves? Oh wait – Trump and JD think the B-L-A-C-K people should be slaves. Got it! MAGA!
What’s that saying?? “When people tell you who they are, you should believe them the first time. ” Something like that.
Vance keeps saying extremely sexist and KKK flyer type stuff and then wants takebacks..
An interesting graph from the St. Louis Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1tJ6Q
Food prices remain high for several reasons including low chicken inventory due to the Avian Flu (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-eggs-expensive-again-know-174143634.html) and tight inventories of beef (https://www.agdaily.com/livestock/low-cattle-inventory-drives-continued-high-beef-prices/); however beef prices have eased in recent days. The CPI for gasoline has fallen back to the Obama years, but still remains higher than the Trump years although the post-Labor Day drop is welcome as the expectation of less driving takes hold.