From BOFIT:
Russian economic growth slowed significantly in June, but sustained its lower pace in July. According to Russian economic development ministry’s preliminary estimate, on-year GDP growth in June and July was around 3 %, down from 4.5 % in the April-May period. The general indicator comprising Russia’s five core production sectors suggested that the volume of seasonally-adjusted economic output contracted on-month in June, but the contraction stopped in July.
The volume of seasonally-adjusted industrial output fell further in July, however. Industrial output has declined in the latest months, both in the extractive industries and manufacturing. Growth also seems to have stalled in construction and retail sales, with no hints of recovery in July. The rapid increase in agricultural output (5 % y-o-y) supported economic output overall in July.
…
The latest outlooks of most major institutional forecasters published in July or August see Russian GDP growing in the range of 3–3.5 % this year and around 1.5 % next year. The latest CBR forecast sees Russian GDP increasing by 3.5–4 % this year and 0.5–1.5 % next year.
Russian industrial output has declined in recent months
Sources: Rosstat, CEIC, BOFIT.
Note that as output decelerates, the Central Bank of Russia has raised the policy rate from 18% to 19% (as of 9/13).
TradingEconomics tags expected inflation at 12.9% (I don’t know how they calculate this number). Taken at face value, that implies 6% real interest rates.
Their first graph shows mining production is down. Where’s Antoni when we need him?
Interesting numbers and graph. The assumption is it gets worse from here, but the whole damned Russian situation seems like a wildcard. If the CBR head steps down at any moment, I see a dramatic downturn. But obviously she’s not ready to walk the pirate’s plank yet, so I don’t see her stepping down anywhere in the near future.
‘Clearly chicken you weirdo’: People respond to JD Vance sharing video he claims shows migrants grilling cats
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/offbeat/clearly-chicken-you-weirdo-people-respond-to-jd-vance-sharing-video-he-claims-shows-migrants-grilling-cats/ar-AA1qAuwF?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=84742ad5b05442b99e9912f2eade3781&ei=12
Since JDVance does not know the difference between baked chicken and cats – when he snidely said he makes a “mean curry chicken” what he fed his kids was baked cat with curry.
Clearly Vance’s wife is completely cool with the degrading racism. Does this mean Usha wants him to call her “curry muncher” when they are snuggling??
I don’t know how much longer she will put up with it. She seems to be an accomplished person who won’t have to. When this is over, she may show him the door. Who knows. I don’t get it at all, but there you have it.
She and her husband apparently have no problem with bashing bi-racial people. I wonder what she tells her children?
“NO sweetie pie. No, No, Daddy only thinks the people a darker shade than you and born in lower socio-economic levels are disgusting and icky. Not you. Let’s watch ‘Frozen’ now and pretend your skin was clean like Elsa’s, then Daddy wouldn’t have to grimace like he does now when he kisses your forehead. Mommy will be in the next room crying and scraping her arms with a steel wool scouring pad ‘cuz this bleaching cream still isn’t making Mommy feel American with Daddy’s country club friends. Remember, if Daddy fails in November Mommy has to trade up to a new man to be condescended by and patronized.”
I have no idea how important the feedback between the economies of Russia and China is, but China’s slowing is probably not good for Russia. It’s probably mostly a one-way street. I doubt whether Russian performance accounts for 0.1% of China’s growth, but that’s just me.
For China’s effort to install itself at the center of a big chunk of the global economy, poor economic performance combined with poor policy performance has to be a marketing problem. Threatening established systems and the territorial integrity of neighboring countries are also problems, but they were already recognized as the choice a country made in following China’s lead. Not to mention that following the U.S. lead is similarly a requirement of MFN treatment. This post-Covid economic embarrassment undermines the entire argument for saddling up with China.
Not for Russia, of course. Russia got itself voted off the island.
The most immediate problem for Russia, with a slowing China, is that they may find less of a market for their hydrocarbons.
Competitive Senate races in both Texas and Florida?:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4879532-texas-democrats-cruz-allred-senate-race/
Scratching my head here. Seems too good to be true, even though both Republican candidates are real stinkers.
i have commented on this before. texas demographics are trending democratic. in fact, i would argue that democrats probably outnumber republicans in the state, today. but the texas state republicans are as corrupt a group as you will find in the united states. they have “legalized” the intimidation and voter suppression tactics that allow them to maintain the vote. and in texas, mark my words, in the next election the republicans will throw out most of the votes from harris county (houston) as a means to pull off statewide elections. they have already put these “laws” into effect. elections in texas are no longer free and fair. considering the state holds 40 electoral votes, this should be a concern for all americans. there is a state attorney general who should be in jail for felony conviction, and he should have been impeached and convicted already in the state. but crooked back room politics along with voter intimidation and suppression have kept him in office. lt governor was a major accomplice in that episode of lawlessness. bad things happen when government leaders act with impunity, which is the current state of texas. you have been warned.
ISW had an interesting piece suggesting that Russia has a deadline of early 2026 to secure victory in Ukraine. From there its abilities go downhill.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-15-2024
Beyond then there will be serious sacrifices of their future world power. By mid 2025 the economic and socio-political situation will worsen along with recruitment problems (that are already evident in the huge sign-on bonuses currently needed to recruit more soldiers). The recruitment problems will only be made worse by Putin just announcing an increase in the size of the military. Putin know he needs more soldiers to reach his goals within a year, but there just isn’t enough Russians that are willing to fight his war. Financial incentives can only go so far when the risk of death or severe injury is high.
Russias labor shortage is already 5 million people and only growing worse. That will put restraints on military production. Either let people stay home and make tanks or send them to the frontline without tanks. Each person can only be one place at a time. They are running out of stockpiles and old stuff to refurbish. New production lines to make things from scratch will require even more labor.
Unfortunately there is no way to let Ukraine win this one quickly. If Putin does not think he can win, then he will likely take drastic measures. General mobilization and full wartime economy would be on the table – and Ukraine loses in that scenario. Tactical nuclear weapons are also a possibility for a desperate Putin. The only way forward is a slow draining of Russias military, economy and people – to the point where they have absolutely no way forward.
Biden reluctance to green light long range missiles used on targets deep into Russia is a complicated calculation of pluses and minuses. If it strengthen Putins argument of being “attacked by the West”, it will help with his mobilization and justify sacrifices by the population. Russias mobilization got boosted by the Kursk invasion (but was still worth it). The actual gains for Ukraine having longer range may be limited, since Russia can move things further back (as they already have done with their navy and many airplanes). The current efforts to help Ukraine make its own (much) longer range weapons systems could make the advantages of western medium range weapons mute. Ukraine is at the cutting edge with drones and could develop medium-range rocket drones and rocket glide bombs as effective as any available western weapons.
Biden’s slow walking is bad enough, but then there was Mike Johnson’s blockade last fall and winter that really hurt Ukraine. The sooner the cuffs are off Ukraine, the better. Putin has shown himself to be toothless so far. There’s no reason to believe that he will grow teeth any time soon.
As far as the economy in Putin’s dump, my take is that all is not as it seems. Shocking, because of vranyo, I know. The interest rates there indicate a much higher rate of inflation than is reported. Putin is wiping out his productive population with meat waves as fast as he can feed them into a grinder. Sanctions get tighter all the time as leaks get plugged. There will always be leaks of course. Those leaks are smaller and smaller. Ukraine has repeatedly hit petroleum refineries and storage capacity.
Let’s think for a minute about petroleum. If the wells stop pumping, they freeze. If they freeze, the wells have to be re-drilled. Russia cannot do that with home-grown technology. When Ukraine knocks out refining and storage capacity, Russia has nowhere to put oil and no way to sell it. They could export unrefined crude, and I’m sure they do. But at some point, they have to store it in order to export it. This all means that wells will likely start to freeze this winter, with dire long-term results.
Their military industrial complex cannot keep up because they lack productive bodies and parts that are not made domestically. The vast pile of Soviet era junk that can be restored into reasonable working condition is being used up. They make some new equipment, but not near what they are getting through. Airplanes are another issue altogether. When those are gone, they are gone. For production and maintenance, the remaining workforce is getting paid more and more, including a whole lot of overtime. Sanctions and the conversion of the economy to a war footing, with a vast percentage of output going to war means that there’s a lot of money chasing around not much to buy. Adam Smith might have something to say about that, but I’ll defer to real economists.
My cloudy plastic crystal ball came to this conclusion some time ago. The other aspect of it is that the economy is completely addicted to war production now. If Putin stops conducting wars, his economy will crash. In order to stay in power, Putin has to keep war production going for as long as he can. He’s going through what’s left of the sovereign fund that he can get his hands on. That will run out eventually. He has committed suicide and will be remembered as the person who finished off the historic Muscovite empire that started growing somewhere back in the late 1400s, depending on how you want to define it.
That’s the whole point of the 2026 deadline. Putin’s deadlines are a bit of a joke at this point. They have not been met, ever. I hope Ukraine can hold out and that they don’t get betrayed by western politicians. You all know who I mean. I expect the disintegration of Putin’s current empire, not its expansion. The west and China had best be ready to deal with a whole lot of satrapies that emerge out of the wreckage. Some will have nukes, although it’s anybody’s guess whether they work or not at this point.
Remarkable outlook, if true. It seems to me likely to be true. Implications include that there is an end in sight, and that the U.S. and our allies can have a decisive effect on the outcome. Continued escalation of economic sanctions, continued provision of effective armaments in large numbers,, continued economicsupport to Ukraine, can combine to allow Ukraine to punish Russia for every hectar of Ukrainian land they try to hold onto.
The aftermath of the war is really important. Allowing Ukraine to thrive economically, ensuring that Ukraine can make its own choices politically, making Russia pay for any and every effort to destabilize or otherwise harm Ukraine are all worthwhile goals. Waffling over our support for Ukraine is criminal.
I am baffled about why the west, and the United States in particular, are so concerned about what Putin may or may not do. Putin will do whatever benefits Putin. That’s it. He will escalate if he decides to escalate. That will happen whether or not his airfields are destroyed by weapons made in the west or not. Xi has laid down a pretty stern warning that nukes are not acceptable. What does that leave for Putin? Nothing. There is absolutely no reason to be concerned about relations with the Putin regime in the future because it won’t exist.