Heterogeneous Responses of Sentiment, Expectations to Economic News

From the Michigan survey of consumers:

Figure 1: Consumer Sentiment for Democratic/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), Independent (gray, left scale), Republican/lean Republican (red, left scale), SF Fed News Sentiment index (black, right scale). Vertical dashed line when PredictIt probability of Harris win > Trump win. Sept observation for sentiment is preliminary; for news sentiment, through 9/11. Source: University of Michigan, SF Fed.

As economic news deteriorated in August, Republican/lean Republican sentiment fell as anticipated. However, Democratic/lean Democratic sentiment rose. This shift seems to occur when assessed probabilities for a Democratic presidential candidate rise.

Source: PredictIt, accessed 9/15/2024.

The disparity in responses is more obvious when looking at expectations, as noted by Goldman Sachs in their 9/13 note.

Figure 2: Consumer expectations for Democratic/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), Independent (gray, left scale), Republican/lean Republican (red, left scale). Vertical dashed line when PredictIt probability of Harris win > Trump win. Sept observation for expectations is preliminary; for news sentiment, through 9/11.Source: University of Michigan.

Since July the increase is 10% for sentiment (average of current conditions and expectations), and 15% for expectations. Note that the survey was taken before the debate.

New poll out from FT-Ross School/UMich indicates that Harris has pulled ahead of Trump in terms of views on economic management, although the difference is within the statistical margin of error. (FT-Michigan Ross poll • Poll of 1,002 registered voters conducted Sep 11 – 12; margin of error ±3.1pp. Those who said neither, both or not sure were not included).

Source: FT, 9/16/2024.

 

 

 

 

 

7 thoughts on “Heterogeneous Responses of Sentiment, Expectations to Economic News”

  1. pgl

    J.D. Vance Defends False Claims Against Haitians: ‘If I Have to Create Stories… That’s What I’m Going to Do’

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/j-d-vance-defends-false-claims-against-haitians-if-i-have-to-create-stories-that-s-what-i-m-going-to-do/ar-AA1qClWT?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=464ee07fd8dc4c50faca3bca194bddc2&ei=30

    That JD Vance is a flaming racist is sort of obvious. But it’s nice that he openly admits it. Of course he decided to blame the press for his vile racism. MAGA.

    1. Moses Herzog

      I was (in essence) dared by the Dean of Foreign Languages at a University I worked at in China to eat dog meat soup at an expensive Korean restaurant. I ate it while hardly batting an eye, and also ate it once again when I was alone one evening at a much cheaper Korean restaurant. As far as I am aware, to my own personal knowledge, no skin burns shaped as pentagrams have ever appeared on my body.

      No immigrant in their right mind is going to snatch someone’s pet animal to eat—as that’s going to attract the attention of local police very quickly when “Karen’s” dog runs away for being beaten, and she phones the police. Anyone with a half-functioning brain knows the last people illegal immigrants want to see is the police.

      This is the problem~~~Republicans need to have a brain and have logical reasoning to decipher when they are being lied to.

  2. pgl

    I just checked and it seems Federal government expenditures is nearly $6.7 trillion with $1 trillion of that being nominal interest expenses. Now maybe I did not learn arithmetic EJ Antoni style as my calculator says interest expenses are 15% of spending. But on his blog he just try to spend the tail that half of the taxes you pay are going to interest expenses.

    Now maybe Heritage has some new advanced fuzzy arithmetic I never learned. Could someone please point me to the refresher course Antoni is teaching?

  3. pgl

    This whole Trump-Vance anti immigrant campaign just got uglier:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ohio-sheriff-asks-residents-to-write-down-harris-supporter-addresses-for-migrant-housing/ar-AA1qFDSA?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=62bedf5143ed4057b39eea5afabcf779&ei=13

    Portage County Sheriff Bruce D. Zuchowski shared a Facebook post on Sept. 13 concerning Harris’ campaign and her border policies.
    “When people ask me…What’s gonna happen if the Flip – Flopping, Laughing Hyena Wins?? I say…write down all the addresses of the people who had her signs in their yards,” Zuchowski wrote in the Facebook post. “Sooo…when the Illegal human “Locust” (which she supports!) Need places to live…We’ll already have the addresses of their New families…who supported their arrival!”

  4. pgl

    An interesting story from someone who knows how to run a farm as to how terrible JD Vance is at even the basics!

    JD Vance, AppHarvest, and the Hazards of “Rural Vibes”
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/jd-vance-appharvest-and-the-hazards-of-rural-vibes/ar-AA1qEAJJ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=03a999422cac469b97c9cdbc63dceb24&ei=19

    AppHarvest started with a lovely idea: build greenhouses in eastern Kentucky and create good jobs. And it should have worked! Based on reporting by CNN and The Grist, however, the company started going sideways long before Vance left the board in April 2021. AppHarvest’s problems were dramatic: greenhouses where the temperatures went up to 125°F, little or no training for new employees, and turning to foreign contract labor to cover for leadership mistakes.

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