That’s EJ Antoni/Heritage Foundation, writing in September 2022. A cautionary note on declaring recessions.
Furthermore, the Biden administration’s cherry-picking of data has come back to bite it, with even its selected data points now being revised to indicate a recession. And while these numbers confirm the economy shrank in the first half of the year, the rest of this year holds little promise of recovery.
Just a reminder of what data we know now about 2022H1, and what happened subsequently.
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment (bold dark blue), Bloomberg consensus of 2/1 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, 2023Q4 advance release (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Hypothesized 2022H1 recession shaded light blue. Source: BEA, BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, 2023Q4 advance release,, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (2/1/2024 release), and author’s calculations.
What about the Sahm rule (real time)?
Figure 2: Real time Sahm rule indicator, in % (blue). Threshold denoted by red dashed line. Putative peak-to-trough recession of 2022H1 shaded lilac. Source: FRED.
And, recalling that NBER’s BCDC doesn’t place primary reliance on GDP, here are other measures of output.
Figure 3: GDP (blue), GDO (tan), and GDP+ (green), final sales (red), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP+ assumes 2019Q4 GDP+ equals GDP. Hypothesized 2022H1 recession shaded light blue. Source: BEA 2023Q4 advance estimate, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
So, now Dr. Antoni has declared us in recession, as of several weeks ago. He might end up being right. As of yesterday, nowcasts are rising, the Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index is running at 2.37%.
Some people have been saying … Oh yea something about immigrants stealing your cat for dinner.
” the rest of this year holds little promise of recovery.”
Antoni’s forecast record must rank up there with that of Steven Koptis!
Antoni’s latest chirping provided nothing to suggest production and employment are falling. All this fake PhD MAGA moron talked about was debt and interest payment including this classic:
“interest on the federal debt was equal to 76% of personal income taxes paid that month.”
Funny – these interest expenses were only 15% of Federal spending. Oh wait – he used a SUBSET of Federal revenue as the denominator. Yea – Antoni does not mind lying to his readers.
Menzie
The latest issue of The New Republic = September 2024 has a great article called What the Media Aren’t Telling You About the Economy by Dean Baker.
No online public link – so I got a print copy at bookstore.
Some highlights of economic policies of Biden/Harris:
The number of uninsured fell to a record low
Unemployment stood below 4% for the longest time in more than 70 years – giving workers more job security and demands for better pay
Tens of millions of workers found better paying jobs
Real wages at the lower end of the wage scale grew rapidly during Biden/Harris
IRS recovered its capacity to force rich/corporations to pay their taxes after being underfunded by GOP for years
Student debt for almost 5 million was reduced or cancelled
Insulin capped at $35 for seniors – Medicaid has capacity to negotiate drug prices
Millions of union workers got pay raises/better benefits
Some of the most progressive economic gains for working class people in decades – and the media and the GOP want you to focus on higher grocery prices so the GOP can get back in charge and gut the ACA and Social Security and give tax cuts to billionaires.
Also listened to Harris stump speech here in Madison on Friday – I like what she says about ensuring women have access to reproductive health care and govt should not be involved in those decisions, protecting your freedom to love whoever you want, protecting your freedom to vote. I also appreciated Harris comments about expanding affordable housing, providing a child tax credit, protecting ACA and Social Security, and providing a $50,000 small business credit. My takeaway – Harris is an inspiring, knowledgeable, and competent leader.
Meanwhile what is Trump doing in the last few weeks before the election when he isn’t ranting about mass deportations and 20% across the board tariffs? He is out there promoting a new scam to sell crypto-coin with the self-professed “dirtbag of the internet” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/behind-trump-crypto-project-self-090031390.html and posting long misogynistic rants in all caps on his social media platform – (I’m not going to bother linking – it is creepy and disgusting).
“He is out there promoting a new scam to sell crypto-coin”
And don’t forgot you can buy those Trump coins with $30 worth of silver for a mere $100. And it has his ugly face on the coins!
https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1837323896791367773
It seems Antoni is admitting the news from the Nowcasts but he has a “rebuttal”. Something about a “credit party”. And we thought Steven Koptis did not understand macroeconomics! It seems Antoni has adopted the word salad of his hero – Trump.
This Antoni cove is an expert on recessions. He has predicted one ever since biden was elected.