My guess for private NFP:
Figure 1: Private NFP (bold black), nowcast (blue), +/- 1 std error band (gray), Bloomberg consensus (red +). Source: BLS, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.
The nowcast is +176K, vs +125K Bloomberg consensus.
The nowcast is based on this regression:
For comparison, GS provides some big data nowcasts for total NFP (GS adds 20K to ADP to scale up to total NFP).
Goldman Sachs estimate of total NFP is at +165K. One can take 20K off to get implied private NFP (Bloomberg consensus has 23K difference).
– Amazing – when does the media start reporting that Biden/Harris and in general Dem admins lead to growing U.S. economies and Republican admins have tax cuts for billionaires, cut regulations and lead to speculative bubblies in stock market/housing/cryptocurrencies and recessions – also Biden/Harris admin has set up our economy for future growth and tackles our biggest challenge – reducing emissions – https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/10/september-employment-report-254.html
254,000 increase per the payroll survey. And the household survey?
The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.2% from 60.0% in August
A solid report. Now – I suspect Kudlow the Klown is on the phone with Bruce Hall and EJ Antoni asking for their help to spin this as the Kamala recession!
Aggregate weekly hours were relatively flat in Q3, despite good job growth:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1uXht
Notice the upward revisions to emoyment? They amounted to just over 70,000 additional jobs in Q3.
Anyhow, with GDPNow putting Q3 output growth at 2.5% and hours up just 0.2%, we’re looking at a productivity gain of around 2.3% (SAAR). Not stellar, but better than average for the Great Moderation.
Bill McBride promised to post this later:
Employment-Population Ratio – 25-54 Yrs.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060#:~:text=Graph%20and%20download%20economic%20data%20for
I decided to do so now. This ratio is at 80.9% which is higher than at any point under Trump. Which means you will not hear about this from Antoni or Kudlow.
Susan Rice: ‘Surrender monkey’ Trump is GOP’s Neville Chamberlain
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/susan-rice-surrender-monkey-trump-is-gop-s-neville-chamberlain/ar-AA1rHFX4?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=fb248b57380644b5aa3d1b0036e52891&ei=12
Former White House adviser Susan Rice criticized former President Trump over his foreign policy agenda, calling him an “appeaser” and likening him to former British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain — who tried to appease Nazi leader Adolf Hitler. “The fundamentals of national security — that America needs to be strong, that we need to stand with our allies, we need to stand for our values, we have to mean what we say,” Rice said in an interview Thursday with MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell. “These are very fundamental things that never used to be under serious question.” “And along comes Donald Trump, who really is like the Neville Chamberlain of the Republican Party,” she added. Rice also called Trump a “surrender monkey” and referred to the former president’s rhetoric about Ukraine and its nearly three-year war with Russia.
I think Moses has a lot of respect for Susan Rice. I certainly do.
Drinking now I just, really, incredible pgl, you might have meant it ina semi-joking way, but I was just going on here to say something about Susan Rice, HONEST TO GOD you had read my mind…….. the same way Macroduck often did. It’s flattering to me, but insulting to you, and I am sorry for that. I can’t say it any other way./ I just feel Susan Rice is an incredible incredible woman, Just a superb woman, She’s so special. I just PRAY Miss Rice. will be in the next WH adminisration, because she deserves that AND MORE.
Bruce Hall tried to peddle this racist lieL
Trump FEMA Claim Debunked: Agency Not Running Out Of Money Because Of Migrants
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-fema-claim-debunked-agency-not-running-out-of-money-because-of-migrants/ar-AA1rHTTf?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=b3ef464d1520432a8c3f959d53ad7456&ei=16
Former President Donald Trump and his allies have claimed the Federal Emergency Management Agency can’t respond well enough to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene because it’s diverted so much money to helping migrants—but that’s not true, as FEMA’s funds for handling disaster relief efforts are separate from money given to immigrant communities. Trump has repeatedly alleged that FEMA is having money issues because of funds spent on migrants, claiming at a rally Thursday that “Kamala spent all her FEMA money—billions of dollars—on housing for illegal migrants” and quoting Fox News host Jesse Watters as saying, “FEMA is now out of money, because Joe Biden and Kamala spent over a billion dollars of FEMA cash on migrants.” Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas did say Tuesday that FEMA’s disaster relief efforts are facing a dire cash crunch, warning that while the agency is “meeting the immediate needs” of Hurricane Helene recovery “with the money that we have,” it “does not have the funds to make it through the [hurricane] season.” But those financial issues aren’t because of money going to migrants: While FEMA and U.S. Customs and Border Protection have given more than $1 billion since the start of 2023 to communities that are taking in migrants, that’s been through the agency’s Shelter and Services Program, a totally different funding pot than the Disaster Relief Fund used to respond to hurricanes and other natural disasters. FEMA says on its website that any claims that disaster funds were rerouted to border-related efforts are “false,” noting the Disaster Relief Fund is a dedicated fund for managing disasters and money meant for the fund “has not been diverted to other, non-disaster related efforts.”
We do need to increase FEMA funding but we can also take care of other needs. Of course racists like Bruce Hall and Donald Trump could care less if brown people die from a lack of adequate care. Actually the MAGA crowd probably wants brown people to die.
Well, Susan Rice, in my drunk/drinking eyes, is a really striking women. She is actually beautiful woman in my eyes, but I wanna say something, She did an interview where they asked her about the “red line” in Syria. And her eyes glazed, her eyes watered up thinking about Syrians who had died. Foreignors who had died. It touched me in a DEEP way, that Susan Rice ALMOST cried thinking about foreignors who had died, I knew she was a very special and kind/gracious woman when I saw her eyes “watering up” then. She is a teriffic woman
Nice to know the Supreme Court occasionally gets one right:
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4916078-supreme-court-biden-methane-toxic-pollution-epa/
The Supremes left methane and mercury limits in place while lower courts handle challenges to those limits.
https://charlierose.com/video/player/17470?autoplay=true
I’m not sure if this was the video I meant (MY mistake, not yours, I think I gave you the wrong video, it was a different Charlie Rose interview, I gave you the wrong one). I’m exceedingly exceedingly grateful. You spotted me this one Menzie. Well I am drinking now, but these things you gave me graciousness. I appreciate, more than you’ll ever know. Thank you