Private nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the upside (big time): 223K vs 125K consensus (total NFP 254K vs. 147K consensus). Moreover, the previous two months’ data were revised a total of 46K. Here’s a graph of reported September and August release numbers, vs. Bloomberg consensus and my nowcast (reported yesterday).
Figure 1: Private NFP, September release (bold blue), August release (black), nowcast based on ADP (blue), +/- 1 std error band (gray), Bloomberg consensus (red +). Source: BLS, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.
The implied level of September employment was well within the 68% (plus/minus 1 std error) band for the nowcast based on the ADP series. Note the mean revision (mean absolute revision) going from 1st to 3rd release is -30 (50) in 2023.
More on the employment release to come.
As Simon Rosenberg says, “Under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris we’ve had the longest period of low unemployment in a peacetime American economy since WWII and the best job market since the 1960s. The stock market is breaking records. GDP growth has been 3% over 3 years. We have the lowest uninsured rate in American history. The rate of formation of new businesses is at an all time high. Wage growth has been running ahead of inflation for some time now. The battle against inflation has been won. The deficit is lower. Crime is down. Drug overdoses are down. Obesity is down. The flows to the border today are lower than at the end of Trump’s Presidency. We passed the first bi-partisan gun safety bill in 30 years. Domestic oil, gas, renewable production are higher than they’ve ever been and we are more energy independent today than we’ve been in decades. The three big Biden-Harris investment bills will be creating jobs and opportunities for American workers for decades to come, while accelerating the energy transition needed to keep the planet from warming.” https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/america-is-working-closing-strong
Amazing – The Biden/Harris admin may be one of the most successful admin in modern U.S. history –
President Biden is talking about the economy right now. He said something about rightwing economists arguing his fiscal policies would crowd out business economists. These same economists told Trump’s economic policies were supposed to lead to an investment boom. FRED?
Real Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PNFIC1#:~:text=Graph%20and%20download%20economic%20data%20for
Under Trump the growth in investment was not that large EVEN if you skip the 2020 pandemic disaster. Under Biden real business investment has soared. So much for the junk science peddled by the rightwing.
Global price of Bananas
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PBANSOPUSDM/#:~:text=Graph%20and%20download%20economic%20data%20for
One of the issues that was averted when the dock workers strike was resolved (for now) is the possible surge in banana prices. This got me think about these prices which were high early this year. But the good news is that the wholesale price of bananas was recently reported at a level not seen since Obama was President. Yes boys and girls – Trump was a disaster when it came to banana prices.
Then again Trump only eats junk food and not healthy fruit so why would he care?