While overall private employment has risen, firms with 1-49 employees have kept employment flat in recent months.
Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment from CES (light blue), incorporating preliminary benchmark (bold blue), ADP (bold red), ADP firms 1-49 employees. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.
In firms tracked by the NFIB, employment is down (per firm), although there’s enough seasonal variation, it’s hard for me to see what’s going on trendwise.
Source: NFIB, accessed 10/5/2024.
A differential impact between smaller and larger firms is not surprising; the financial accelerator suggests that tight monetary policy will affect credit collateral constrained firms more than others. A reasonable conclusion is that monetary policy might profitably be loosened, even if overall economic activity appears strong.
For more commentary, see Jan Groen, Noah Smith.
Fact check: Are Haitian immigrants in Springfield in the US illegally?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/fact-check-are-haitian-immigrants-in-springfield-in-the-us-illegally/ar-AA1rKFGu?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=4518bed7da644f5b9e1f63ee786b981d&ei=9
As this story notes, JD Vance said they were in Springfield illegally. Of course that was a LIE. Just as the claim they are eating the dogs and the cats.
Looking ahead, Challenger, Gray and Christmas expects 529,000 new jobs in Q4 of this year vs 564,200 last year. That’s a 35,000 slowdown spread over 3 months, for a 11,667 drag per month.
That’s a small enough difference that seasonal adjustment, birth/death adjustment and weather will probably obscure it in any given month. Could have been worse.
I hear Kamala Harris has told those in NC and Tennessee that the FEDs will spend $100 million to rebuild interstate 40. Sounds good but I also hear that the total damage may reach $250 billion. Not sure how much will be covered by insurance (something MAGA moron Bruce Hall mocks). One would think the government will do more but fake Speaker of the House and MAGA kiss a$$ is on the one hand saying Biden-Harris is not doing enough and on the other hand not doing a damn thing to increase FEMA’s budget.
Classic GOP create a problem – then complain about it. By refusing to increase FEMA’s budget they are making sure there are not enough funds to do the fixing. But this may be the GOP setting up a trap for themselves. Biden could demand that congress comes back and vote on a disaster relief bill before the election.
As the rest of us was watching ALABAMA get beat by Vanderbilt, EJ Antoni was tweeting about his appearances on Faux Business. He was having such a good time rehashing every rightwing economic lie in the book!
OK I suffered through the 3 interviews on Faux News with fake PhD EJ Antoni. Six takeaways:
(1) Trump tariffs worked
(2) Trump lowered household costs by $25,000 per year per household by reducing the “regulatory burden” (I guess higher tariffs do not impose an increase in costs according to EJ).
(3) Green energy is inefficient as it raises “costs”. After 8 EV charges cost $8 billion.
(4) Harris drove up higher costs because she got the FED to keep interest rates low (later he complained about high mortgage rates).
(5) Education costs are high because students can take out loans.
(6) The recent “political” FED interest rate reduction will lead to INFLATION!
And one wonders why viewers of Faux News are so dumb!
A new comic book!
https://posthillpress.com/book/the-trump-economic-miracle-and-the-plan-to-unleash-prosperity-again#:~:text=This%20book%20is%20the%20story%20of
The Trump Economic Miracle and the Plan to Unleash Prosperity Again by Art Laffer and Stephen Moore
I saw the latter hawking this comic book as he tried to explain why free traders should have loved Trump’s tariffs. According to Moore – these tariffs were “strategic”. Moore never said how they were already strategic.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fema-administrator-on-misinformation-about-federal-response-to-helene-this-kind-of-rhetoric-is-not-helpful/ar-AA1rMTXE?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=85cea25dc4f540f3b0d8de7582de4934&ei=12
The MAGA morons are now asking Trump’s militia to attack the FEMA officials bringing aid to the victims of Helena. We knew Trump is a disgusting piece of trash but this is a new low.