Michigan consumer sentiment declined, below consensus (68.9 vs 70.9). Why?
First, consider a text based index of economic news, compared against consumer sentiment disaggregated by partisan grouping.
Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for Democrats (blue, left scale), for Independents (gray, left scale), for Republicans (red, left scale), Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) Daily News Sentiment Index (green, right scale). The News Index observation for September is through 10/6/2024. Source: U.Mich, SF Fed.
Notice that Republican/lead Republican sentiment declines even as text based news rises. The gap is more pronounced disaggregating Sentiment into Current conditions and Expectations, and focusing on Expectations.
Figure 2: University of Michigan Consumer Expectations for Democrats (blue, left scale), for Independents (gray, left scale), for Republicans (red, left scale), Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) Daily News Sentiment Index (green, right scale). The News Index observation for September is through 10/6/2024. Source: U.Mich, SF Fed.
Republican/lean Republican seems to have an outsize impact on the negative movements in the overall consumer sentiment, as shown over the long term picture here.
Figure 3: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment relative to 2016M06 (bold black line), contribution from Democratic/lean Democratic (blue bar), from Independent (gray bar), and from Republican/lean Republican (red bar). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: University of Michigan, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Republican/lean Republican sentiment has had an outsized impact on overall Sentiment even though they only have about 1/3 weight in the overall sentiment.
OK we know those Trump Bibles were made in China but the finances of this are interesting:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/god-bless-the-usa-bible-reportedly-made-in-china-has-become-synonymous-with-trump/ar-AA1s76Er?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=9fc8b166e00d477492ee12b1878c4940&ei=13
‘God Bless the USA Bible’, reportedly made in China, has become synonymous with Trump
Global trade records obtained by the AP indicate that about 120,000 copies of the Republican nominee’s “God Bless the USA” Bible were shipped from China’s eastern city of Hangzhou to the U.S. between early February and late March. The estimated value of the shipments was less than $3 per Bible, or $342,000 altogether, according to the news outlet. The minimum cost for the “Trump Bible” is $59.99, putting the potential sales revenue at about $7 million.
Wait a second. They told US Customs that the price paid ton the manufacturer was less than $3 per Bible but customers paid $60 per Bible? The distributor walked off with a 95% gross margin. Are you effing kidding me? Two possibilities:
(1) The MAGA morons paying $60 are getting seriously ripped off; or
(2) The enterprise is lying to US Customs perhaps to evade the appropriate level of tariff duties.
Leave it to a scumbag like Trump to impose high tariffs on other importers while he massively dodging the tariff himself. MAGA?!
Even more on these $3 bibles sold for $60
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2024/10/04/oklahoma-schools-trump-bible/
Specifications for Oklahoma school bibles are tailored to exactly fit Trump bibles and no other bibles. That includes having the US constitution and first 10 amendments. The 11’th and later amendments are not there for good reasons. We would not want school children to learn about constitutional protections of black people and women.
‘He left without paying the bill’: Report reveals Trump’s unpaid fees owed to rally cities
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/he-left-without-paying-the-bill-report-reveals-trump-s-unpaid-fees-owed-to-rally-cities/ar-AA1s6cHS?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=dbd2bbe61147467192e43d2762a2c05c&ei=36
Donald Trump owes more than $750,000 to at least four cities and one county, according to a new Friday report. Trump has long been accused of hosting rallies in various jurisdictions, and then leaving without paying fees due for public safety costs. Those bills have been accruing over the course of eight years and now near almost $1 million, according to NBC. “Former President Donald Trump held a third rally last month in Erie, Pennsylvania, which sits in the northwest corner of a swing state that could decide who wins the White House,” the report states. “Like the two other times Trump has been to Erie to rev up his supporters, he left without paying the bill.”
If a town does not want to be ripped off by the thief – then maybe they should tell Trump that he cannot hold one of his stupid rallies there.
I have not been in Detroit in 25 years but this story notes how the city has done a good job of reviving. Donald Trump was at the Detroit Economic Club this week and claimed it was still a hell hole. Huh – maybe some of the fine upstanding citizens of today’s Detroit were B-L-A-C-K!
Detroit knows a thing or two about revival — other cities should take notes
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/06/struggling-cities-should-look-to-detroit-for-lessons-on-revival/
The post is (to a degree) a lesson in psychology. Maybe not PhD level but maybe 2 year community college, and I don’t mean that last part derogatory. Insight up to a level.