Nowcasts for NY and St. Louis Feds out today; St. Louis up from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed, and GS tracking unchanged at 3.2%.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Summary of Economic Projections median iterated off of 3rd release (inverted light green triangle), GDPNow as of 10/9 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast as of 10/11 (red triangles), St Louis Fed news nowcast as of 10/11 (pink x), Goldman Sachs tracking as of 10/9 (green +), FT-Booth as of 9/14 iterated off of 3rd release (blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Levels calculated by iterating growth rate on levels of GDP, except for Survey of Professional Forecasters. Source: BEA 2024Q2 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve September 2024 SEP and author’s calculations.
The Lewis-Merten-Stock Weekly Economic Index (for data available through 10/5) is at 2.10% AR, while the corresponding Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index is at -0.11% (so 1.89% if 2% is trend). Hard to see a recession in data available through early October, then.
Finally, with these estimates out, I welcome a new member to the “recession camp”: Mike Shedlock. In addition, EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge have backdated the recession’s start to 2022.
Speaking of forecasts, 3vwrybody ready for a goose egg for October emoyment?
Whatever number is published, it doesn’t matter much. Weather doesn’t count.
The new guy is a photographer who pretends to write on economics? Well at least he admits he invented his own special indicator. Is this like Koptis and his stupid VMT?
China’s government is due to announce details for its stimulus package tomorrow (Saturday). Here’s a preview:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-economy-fiscal-stimulus-recovery-stock-market-rally-csi-300-2024-10
For those who can get past the firewall, here’s the FT’s explanation of the “real” goal of the stimulus plan, for what it’s worth:
https://www.ft.com/content/008443cd-bb44-4b4f-b60e-17894fdba221
Is this Shedlock dude claiming a rise in this series means we are heading into a recession?
Number Unemployed for 27 Weeks & over
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UEMP27OV
It has increased before and no recession. Now he seems to have meshed (or Mished) different series for some stupid reason. A few of the comments to his blog post have already criticized him appropriately.
Now I have no idea if he has any real training in either labor economics or macroeconomics. From what little I have read from him – he has no real economic expertise.
J.D. Vance Says Trump Was Right to Try to Steal the Election, Because of Twitter
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/j-d-vance-says-trump-was-right-to-try-to-steal-the-election-because-of-twitter/ar-AA1s7jrU?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=72f5ec85013240ac90621a81d67dc61d&ei=14
“A new interview with Lulu Garcia-Navarro of the New York Times put Vance’s sweaty dishonesty on vivid, almost uncomfortable display. When first asked whether he believes Trump lost the 2020 election, Vance tries to deflect, as he did during the vice-presidential debate: “I think that Donald Trump and I have both raised a number of issues with the 2020 election, but we’re focused on the future. I think there’s an obsession here with focusing on 2020. I’m much more worried about what happened after 2020, which is a wide-open border, groceries that are unaffordable.”,
Deflection is a familiar move for use when one’s allies do something unacceptable. A hackish response is to insist the unacceptable position should not be discussed because it is a distraction — a move that allows you to avoid endorsing it directly but avoids a breach within your own coalition.
Garcia-Navarro asked this lying weasel FIVE times the same question and this clown deflected like the jerk he is five times. But this line has became JD’s standard pathetic exuse:
‘When Garcia-Navarro repeats the question, Vance pivots to a different claim. Trump’s rhetoric is true, or at least justified, he suggests, because Facebook and Twitter briefly blocked news stories about the Hunter Biden laptop. “Let me ask you a question,” he asserts. “Is it okay that big technology companies censored the Hunter Biden laptop story, which independent analysis have said cost Donald Trump millions of votes?” Vance, finding this argument easier to maintain, continues repeating it as Garcia-Navarro drills down.’
Hunter’s laptop? Of course the claim that technology companies blocked a real news story is a flat out lie and little JD knows it. But all this pathetic weasel does is to lie like a rug. Could someone please point out that a pathetic and worthless lie this really is?
No appetite: Speaker Johnson sparks scandal with remarks on Ukraine aid
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/no-appetite-speaker-johnson-sparks-scandal-with-remarks-on-ukraine-aid/ar-AA1s7suL?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=dcd0525c8c884e3b926afafba0955249&ei=16
Speaker of the US House of Representatives Mike Johnson expects that further assistance to Ukraine will not be necessary. He “doesn’t have an appetite” for it, according to an interview with Johnson for Punchbowl News. “I don’t have an appetite for further Ukraine funding, and I hope it’s not necessary. If President Trump wins, I believe that he actually can bring that conflict to a close. I really do,” said Speaker of the US House of Representatives Mike Johnson. He expressed hope that if re-elected, Trump could call Russian President Vladimir Putin and tell him to end the war. Johnson added that everyone in the world is tired of the war and wants to find a solution. However, in the speaker’s view, if Kamala Harris becomes the US president, the war will not end, and such a scenario would be “desperate and dangerous.”
Earlier, Speaker of the US House of Representatives Mike Johnson had refused to bring to the floor of the lower House of Congress a bill for $60 billion in funding for Ukraine. At that point, the US ran out of funds allocated for military aid to Ukrainian defenders, which led to a suspension of weapon packages being sent. As a result, the Ukrainian Armed Forces faced significant problems with artillery ammunition. Additionally, the Russian forces were able to capture Avdiivka.
The Speaker is clearly a puppet of Trump and Trump is Putin’s puppet. The Speaker’s solution is for Ukraine to surrender.