Only one forecaster projects two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Here’s the WSJ mean forecast compared to nowcasts:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ October survey mean (tan), GDPNow as of 10/9 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast as of 10/11 (red triangles), St Louis Fed news nowcast as of 10/11 (pink x), Goldman Sachs tracking as of 10/9 (green +), FT-Booth as of 9/14 iterated off of 3rd release (blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Levels calculated by iterating growth rate on levels of GDP, except for Survey of Professional Forecasters. Source: BEA 2024Q2 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, WSJ October survey, and author’s calculations.
The WSJ mean forecast is slightly less optimistic than the FT-Booth mean forecast, and substantially less optimistic than the nowcasts from Atlanta and NY Feds, and Goldman Sachs. Interestingly, the 20% trimmed top/bottom bounds are pretty narrow, reflecting little disagreement about short term growth prospects. The only prediction of two consecutive quarters of negative growth comes from Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark of Citigroup -0.9 and -1.5 q/q AR in 2024Q4-2025Q1).
The level of GDP is forecasted to be much higher, mostly because of the annual update has shifted up the contour of GDP, and because the near term growth (Q3-Q4) is increased by 0.8 and 0.3 ppts respectively.
Figure 2: GDP, post-annual update (bold black), WSJ October survey mean forecast (blue), GDP, pre-annual update (bold gray), WSJ July survey mean forecast (light blue), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Levels calculated by iterating off relevant GDP level. Source: BEA, WSJ, and author’s calculations.
Recession probability estimates continue to decline.
Figure 3: Probability of recession within the next 12 months , % (blue square). Source: WSJ.
More results in the article.
The article was from the WSJ with this title:
Economists Say Inflation, Deficits Will Be Higher Under Trump Than Harris
In WSJ survey, economists see Donald Trump’s plans as more inflationary by a larger margin than in July when President Biden was on the ticket
Huh – I bet even the WSJ did not include EJ Antoni in their survey!
pgl: I can confirm that neither Stephen Moore, Lawrence Kudlow, Art Laffer, nor EJ Antoni are respondents to the WSJ survey.
Menzie, hahahahahahha!!! So you say “those guys” are in the official WSJ survey. Am I allowed to “put you on the spot” Menzie?? What does that tell us about the leadership of the WSJ??? Menzie?? hahahah. I got the answer as a white trash loser, if UW_Madison etc can’t stand you saying it Menzie.
Well, I got that one wrong. You know I’m drinking now. I just…. Menzie, these times are so crazy now you could ALMOST forgive me for misunderstanding that, Maybe??
Missed a very funny good joke didn’t I?? Missed my own hero’s joke
I asked earlier who is this William Jacob Parsons?
Man arrested for threatening FEMA workers speaks out
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/man-arrested-for-threatening-fema-workers-speaks-out/ar-AA1soJ3u?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=9cca9ce7f72b4b2aafcda7693218b747&ei=12
William Jacob Parsons, who was arrested Saturday on charges of making threats against Federal Emergency Management Agency employees, is publicly defending alleged actions that disrupted the agency’s efforts to help Hurricane Helene victims. Parsons, 44, told local news outlet FOX8 WGHP that he was exercising his Second Amendment rights when he brought his gun to a FEMA site in storm-battered Lake Lure, N.C. “They want to sit here and lie and say I was carrying guns around,” he said. “I had one gun on me, which was legally owned and sitting on the side of my hip, and I had a rifle and another pistol that were in my vehicle that were both lawful and legal to own.”
Parsons said he was motivated by social media reports claiming that FEMA was withholding supplies from hurricane victims in western North Carolina. Such false claims are part of a wave of misinformation that has hampered hurricane recovery efforts across the Southeast. “I viewed it as if our people are sitting here on American soil, and they’re refusing to aid our people,” Parsons told FOX8. The Washington Post’s efforts to reach Parsons on Wednesday were not immediately successful. In a Facebook post before his arrest, Parsons had called for people to “overtake” the FEMA site in Lake Lure, where Helene’s muddy floodwaters left widespread devastation, FOX8 reported. In a profile picture on Facebook, Parsons had also included the caption “verified harmful extremist.”
In other words – one of Trump and Vance’s goons!
I sometimes wonder what Prof Rosser would say now, about these things (current events) now, if he was still with us. Would Rosser say Kamala Harris is about to be President, and the female candidate I liked from Hawaii (Tulsi Gabbard) had “gone MAGA” on us?? I suspect he would have. And as much as I disliked Prof Rosser, I’d have no good response to that.