Joe Biden is dethroning King Dollar in real time. The US dollar’s financial dominance is under siege from a uniquely bad combination of foreign and domestic policies, and Americans should be deeply concerned by the fallout if the dollar loses its 80-year reign as the world’s reserve currency.
That’s from an article by EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge, back in March 2023. The use of financial sanctions is the trigger for foreigners to flee US dollar assets. The result?
If foreigners no longer want them for trade, central bank reserves, private wealth funds, and the official currency of about a dozen countries, all those dollars have nowhere to go but back to us in a flood like our country has never seen. This flood will compete for goods and services in the US against the dollars already here as decades of accumulated trade deficits come flooding back all at once.
At that point, hyperinflation will not be hyperbole
OK. Time for some data.
Figure 1: USD share of total reserves as reported (light blue), and USD share plus 60% of unallocated share (bold blue). Source: IMF, COFER, and author’s calculations.
While this reduction in dollar share might seems precipitous, it’s interesting to note the faster shift was during the Trump administration. In any case, some context is useful.
Figure 2: Share of foreign exchange reserves held by central banks, in USD (blue), EUR (orange), DEM (tan squares), JPY (green), GBP (sky blue), Swiss francs (purple), CNY (red). For 1999 data onward, estimates based on COFER data, and apportionment of unallocated reserves, described in text. Source: Chinn and Frankel (2007), IMF COFER accessed 10/1/2024, and author’s estimates.
The decrease from 2022Q3 can be accounted for by the decrease in the value of the US dollar (remember the shares are calculated using currency values evaluated using market exchange rates). So, a bit premature to worry about the end of the dollar’s reserve currency hegemony.
Do we know if sanctions spurred a decline in dollar holdings? Not really. From Chinn, Frankel and Ito (2024), we know through 2021, they didn’t. Of course, Antoni and St. Onge are referring to the 2022 sanctions in response to Russia’s expanded invasion of Ukraine. In ongoing work, we’ll asses whether there was an impact in 2022 (once we have the data).
Oh, and the dollar’s appreciated (in real terms) since the sanctions were imposed.
Figure 3: Real trade-weighted value of the US dollar (blue). Up is appreciation. Source: Federal Reserve via FRED.
I am a layperson/non-economist and someone who readily admits that I do not understand world currency markets – but I would take a look at the Russian economy to see the impact of the sanctions against trade in the Russian ruble. Basically the ruble is a dead currency – no other country will take the ruble and Russia is forced to do barter/commodity trades with others – trading Russian chickpeas and lentils for rice, mandarins, and potatoes from Pakistan – (also geez – things seem bad when Russia is bartering for potatoes – Hey Putin – maybe it is time to switch workers from drones and artillery shells to growing potatoes -) https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/10/02/russia-to-accept-mandarins-instead-of-money-amid-payment-difficulties-a86543
Also if you are looking for an example of hyperinflation – EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge should take a look at Russia – difficult to get real data from Russia because you could get sent to die in a ditch in the Donbas if you report actual data – but Steve Hanke estimates the Russian inflation rate may be around 60% a year. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-inflation-60-percent-falling-ruble-steve-hanke-2023-7?op=1
The current inflation rate in the U,S, is 2.4% https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2024/consumer-prices-up-2-4-percent-from-september-2023-to-september-2024.htm
The Russian economy seems to be collapsing while the U.S. economy is the strongest economy in the world – thanks Biden/Harris administration.
“someone who readily admits that I do not understand world currency markets”
Your understanding is far superior to theirs! As far as Hanke’s estimate that Russian inflation is near 60%, this blog has questioned his approach to these matters as well. But yea – Russia faces an inflation problem which is why their Central Bank is raising interest rates a lot.
“Russian inflation is soaring at extreme levels thanks to a steep slide in the ruble’s exchange rate, according to Steve Hanke.
The economist estimated Russia’s current annual inflation at 60%, almost 17 times the level reported by the central bank.”
Maybe Dr. Chinn can help here but I’m struggling to see where Hanke is coming from. Sure the ruble has devalued a lot since late June 2022 but it had appreciated quite a bit before than. So what the nominal devaluation of the ruble has been depends on one’s starting point.
Also Hanke must be using some discredited extreme version of PPP where inflation differentials always equal the nominal exchange rate change. There are so many issues with this “model’, I could write an entire book on what’s wrong with this premise.
Now I doubt the actual inflation rate is less than 4% but it is not 60%.
Interesting tidbit from ISW today citing the Russian finance minister regarding request fo an additional $16 billion in 2024: “Siluanov claimed that the Russian government needs additional funds to subsidize banks, service the public debt, and meet the additional needs of the Russian MoD and law enforcement agencies due to Russia’s war in Ukraine.” Russian incentives for people to join the military now is in excess of one year average salary. In addition they are now offering veteran benefits from the time you join. North Korea has begun supplying soldiers – presumably at a cost – but several have already used the opportunity to defect.
“…while the U.S. economy is the strongest economy in the world…”
It seems you DO understand how currencies work. Certainly better than the Heritage boys.
The U.S. economy is large, stable, well governed and open. No wars have been fought on U.S. soil since the late 1800s, and that war did not involve foreign troops. The only country to attack us in that period is also the only country to suffer an attack with nuclear weapons.
A massive pool of dollar-denominated assets, real and financial, are available under these very attractive circumstances. And those are just the current conditions favoring the dollar. There is inertia in the use of a currency for trade and finance. Contracts, conventions and costs. The eurodollar (ED, not Eur/Usd) runs on dollars, not euros. The idea that some other arrangement will spring up to displace dollar finance is simply childish nonsense. Grownups don’t say things like that.
EJ ANTONI And PETER ST ONGE: This Could Be The Final Nail In The Dollar’s Coffin published in the Daily Caller under Big Tents Ideas
Guaranteed to be a pile of rubbish. These two fake PhD’s never learned international finance – did they?
Off topic – the Harris cabinet:
Politico is playing the cabinet game for the Harris administration:
https://www.politico.com/interactives/2024/potential-cabinets/harris-who-could-be-in-cabinet/
None of the people Politico names is the current encumbant. I don’t think that means Politico anticipates a wholesale turnover in the cabinet. Rather, these are potential replacements if there is turnover.
Brainard is mentioned as a possible Treasury Secretary. So is a Wall Street guy. He’s a different Wall Street guy than on some other recent lists. I can’t tell if that’s a sign that several such guys are floating their own names or that the press just wants to keep financiers in play. Biden is one of the few presidents who had the guts and the independence to pick a policy professional to run Treasury, rather than a Goldman-esque guy. Gensler is the only Wall Street alum in a big financial policy job, and he is driving Wall Street nuts. This is important progress, and it would be a shame if Harris were to veer back toward fealty to monied interests. If Yellen steps down, Brainard is the best choice.
Buttigieg and Flake are suggested for State, along with some more experienced folk. Flake would edge out Cheney as the token Republican. Not sure that makes sense. Cheney has worn out several pairs of shoes stumping for Harris and cost herself a seat in Congress trying to weaken Trump. Flake would have to be the second cabinet Republican – not sure that makes sense either.
Anyhow, for those interested in the cabinet game, enjoy.
I thought Buttigieg was the flake?? [ thanks for the set-up ]
I am not aware of any serious foreign affair experience on Buttigieg’s CV, so yes, for the purposes of this discussion, kind of a flake. Soldiering is not diplomacy.
For the record, I would take Cheney over Flake. Not sure she would take it if offered though. Even if one could easily argue she has nothing to lose at this stage.
Trump ground game in key states flagged as potentially fake
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/exclusive-trump-ground-game-in-key-states-flagged-as-potentially-fake/ar-AA1syywL?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=4f3ebe38a7c444eeacb2ea7a42b8ec64&ei=8
This story has a lot of confusing information. Reports have come out that Trump has been gaining on Harris which has affected the political betting markets as well as the stock price of Trump Media. But maybe according to this story, these reports are based on flat out lies from the people working for Trump. None of this surprises me as Trump’s entire life has been based on lie after lie after lie.
And I also wondered if Trump would pull a pump and dump when it came to Trump Media. Of course this would be extreme investor fraud. But that’s Trump’s standard operating procedure. MAGA?!
https://www.casey.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/charleroi_pa_an_example_of_how_private_equity_is_shattering_the_glass_industry_and_leaving_workers_behind.pdf
In September 2024, Anchor Hocking informed the approximately 325 workers of the Pyrex glass factory in Charleroi, Pennsylvania that, after 132 years of operation, the plant would be shuttered in the coming months. Glass manufacturing is not just an occupation in Charleroi, it’s a way of life. This is a plant where one generation passes on the proud tradition of glass-making to the next; where employees show loyalty and work for decades; where couples meet and start families. But despite the importance of the plant in the Charleroi community, Wall Street and “C-suite”
executives do not share the same loyalty as their workers. To them, the plant is nothing more than a line on a spreadsheet—an asset that can be stripped and manipulated at the expense of its workers.
Unfortunately, the story in Charleroi is not unique. In recent years, Wall Street has increasingly gutted companies and communities in a seemingly never-ending quest to make a quick buck of the backs of hardworking Americans, and in the process, devastate communities across America.
Time and time again, the same culprit is to blame—the private equity (PE) industry.
Credit to Senator Bob Casey for this important report. Now if we could get him and other Americans to under that Trump-Vance will allow the private equity types to continue to cheat workers devastating even more communities.
One important use of fossil fuels in modern economies is the production of chemicals. Somebody just figured out how to genetically modify trees – specifically the lignin in trees – so that microbes can turn it into chemical feedstock:
https://scitechdaily.com/biotech-breakthrough-trees-engineered-to-replace-fossil-fuels/
One less reason to extract fossil fuels.
Off topic- North Korean troops in Ukraine:
https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20241018006856315?section=nk/nk
In addition to earning brownie points with Putin and some form of payment, I suspect a major goal is to gain battlefield experience for North Korean troops. They haven’t seen battle in a couple of generations. Russia’s performance early in its war on Ukraine showed how badly inexperience hurts.
Truth social where scammers go to slaughter pigs.
https://gizmodo.com/truth-social-users-are-losing-ridiculous-sums-of-money-to-scams-2000506604
I guess its the perfect site to find people who are susceptible to being conned.
This article is slightly less than a month old. Thought it was interesting:
https://www.dissentmagazine.org/article/industrial-policy-without-nationalism/
Picked up gasoline yesterday (Saturday afternoon) for $2.55. Could have gotten it for $2.53 but decided to go with a different station.
Good news, kinda? Project 2025 participants banned from Trump II:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/16/trump-transition-hiring-staffer-ban-00183208
Some other folks, too. I guess “the best people” would be different people now?
Strikes me as a ploy to ease voters’ worry, not sincere as far as the 2025 plan.
As the article mentions the “ban” on project 2025 people may just be for political show. There are a lot of Trump ass kissers associated with project 2025 and I doubt he would actually keep them out, if he got elected. Trumps son and vice -president are both closely associated with key project 2025 people.
What should be shocking and remarkable is that professional qualifications are not even mentioned. It is simply whether they are Trump cult members and right wing enough. Heck of a job Brownies, here they come.
https://jabberwocking.com/trump-fakes-a-stint-at-mcdonalds-today/
Trump fakes a stint at McDonald’s today
Kevin Drum covers the actual story noting that they shut down this store for the day for a stupid petty stunt. Trump indeed is one petty little man.
But the good news is that he enjoyed his multiple servings of Big Macs. Which of course means he is not little in terms of being grossly overweight.
How could you possibly know that I didn’t work at McDonalds back when I was young ?
Only people who were extremely close to me (parents, brother/sister) could possibly know a negative to that question. So when Trump claims that Harris didn’t work at McDonalds he just prove to thinking people that he pulls postulates out of his big fat ass (when his senile brain think it serves his goals). Does he think we are all stupid?
The WSJ (and the Daily Beast) showed fat a$$ trying to do French fries. Trust me – if someone did the feeble garbage he did in a store I managed, I would fire him on the spot.
BTW Trump’s original claim is that Harris did not put this job on her resume. Of course – I do not put the fact that I worked at McDonald’s on my resume either. Duh. But listen to this pathetic liar here – now Harris put it all over her resume. The clown cannot even keep his lies straight. Sort of like Bruce Hall!
I worked for a mcdonalds in 1972 for a few weeks, waiting to go into the Air Force…..
If I can remember I am sure the VP can tell us the year, months and the town…..
Easy way to disprove a negative!
I guess you want to see this on her resume. Yea – you are one pathetic Trump troll.
The stunt works for Trump because, as Trump knows, the “press,” a/k/a MSM, a/k/a Mass Infotainment, craves a shiny object & the more stunts the better. The stunt has today’s media narrative questioning Harris biographical factoid that she worked in a McDonalds while in college, rather than talking about the fact that Trump is a 78 year old convicted felon who is responsible for the end of the Roe v. Wade and threatens women’s reproductive rights across the country if he wins.
Listen to how the story is framed on the local drive in “all news” station if you are commuting to work or how NPR plays it.