EJ Antoni (Heritage) is dubious about GDPNow’s (and other nowcasts) regarding Q3 growth. From X aka Twitter today:
“Latest Q3 Nowcasts: ATL 2.5% (2.0% prev) NY 2.49% (1.94 prev) STL 2.05% (1.65 prev) It’s going to take stellar consumer spending numbers for Aug and Sep to make this a reality:”
Well, here’s a picture of nowcasts as of today. GDPNow is 3.4% q/q AR for Q3, up from 3.2% on 10/9.
The nowcast for consumption was 3.8% q/q AR. I noted that this was plausible. What does today’s nowcast indicate? 3.6%.
Back when Heritage boy made his comment, we needed both August and September real PCE data. Now, we just need September.
If there is a 0.2% rise in real PCE in September, with no revisions to earlier months, real PCE will have increased at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q3. If there was no growth in real PCE in September, no revisions otherwise, real PCE will have increased at a 3.0% pace. Assuming my math is right. Keep in mind retail sales were up 0.4% in September.
Here are the data:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wnrB
None of this matters in Heritage world. Not one bit.
Here’s my data on another topic:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B235RC1Q027SBEA
Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties
Faux Business News invited Stephen Moore to do some more of his patented lying. When asked about the Trump tariffs, Moore actually tried to convince the MAGA morons who watch this clown show that Biden was worse on tariffs than Trump. Well maybe on a few strategic items, tariff rates are now higher than they were in 2019. But not across the board. After all we are importing more goods and bringing in less tariff revenues.
Oh wait – Moore would likely mansplain that by some Laffer curve BS! Huh – Trump is pretending he can massively raise tariff rates with no impact on how much people import. The wonders of the mixed minds on Faux Business News!
Remember when all the MAGA morons were mocking Biden for being sleepy Joe? Huh – they’ve grown silent of late. I wonder if Trump’s old age problems are like the cat that have their tongues. They are being eaten by cats!
https://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/-exhausted-trump-appears-to-fall-asleep-at-campaign-event-222149701621
We may not be in a recession, but economic activity has changed for consumers’ big ticket items. As an example, here is a bit of history on the average age of vehicles. Given the rapid rise of vehicle prices in the last four years, it appears that people are stretching out their ownership period.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a60882953/average-age-us-cars-trucks-suvs-rises/
More of those who are buying new vehicles and trading in their old ones are increasingly “upside down” on their loans which can mean kicking the can down the road for problems.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/negative-equity-rise-average-amount-130300488.html
Another big ticket item, homes, have reach record real prices and that’s a problem, too. The number of new homes sold is about the same as the mid-to-late 1980s with a much larger population.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QUSR628BIS
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F
So, is the economy humming along? Well, maybe yes, but there should be concerns when consumers have to dramatically change their behaviors due to being stretched economically. And with “free money” gone, the issue may be getting worse.
As Bill Clinton once so famously said: “It depends on what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is.”
Cherry picking from Car and Driver? Wow – you are desperate. Then again – you have to be upset that Sleepy Don does not know how to dance very well.
Oh, you are right, pgl. Fake data from Car and Driver. Gee, I didn’t realize that. Oh, wait, I checked and they are correct. So sorry for you.
But here:
https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-trucks-operation-united-states
https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/fuel-for-thought-average-age-vehicles-2024.html
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-age-of-vehicles-in-the-us-continues-to-rise-12-6-years-in-2024–according-to-sp-global-mobility-302152258.html
Try not to hurt yourself twisting facts into something you can be snarky about. But I’ll wait for a real rebuttal… I’ve been waiting for years.
Dude – when are you going to learn to read? I did not say the data was fake. What I said dumba$$ that you are cherry picking. Oh well – another total waste of time from little Brucie boy.
Brucie boy never learned to read his own damn links. Maybe you did not notice that your data source is missing several years of data. And those years were the Trump years.
Come on Brucie – we got that your IQ is in the single digits a long time ago. So you don’t need to work so hard proving you are indeed the dumbest troll ever.
You are waiting for a real rebuttal? Then make a real point for once in your worthless little life.
Real Residential Property Prices for United States
Hey Brucie – did you read the graph with respect to the dates of when these prices were soaring? Under Trump – yes. Under Biden – no.
Come on dude – we know you are dumber than a rock but not being able to read a simple graph in your own damn link?
pgl, you are correct. Prices for homes did increase in the last two quarters of Trump’s administration as people attempted to purchase homes but construction was much lower. Supply/demand? You might also note that prices continued to rise rapidly for a year under the Biden administration.
But, as usual, that was an attempted deflection from the point I was making: that the economy may be good or may be meh, but consumers are changing their buying behaviors by holding on to their vehicles for a longer time and new homes sales are roughly what they were in the 1980s which means a much smaller portion of the much larger population is buying them. I’m sure you can make up all sorts of reasons why the current situation is still Trump’s fault, but don’t bother making a fool out of yourself. On second thought, do make a fool out of yourself. I share these comments with some friends and associates who get some pretty good laughs.
“that was an attempted deflection from the point I was making”
You made a point? That would be the first time in your worthless life but then no one saw your point as it was nonexistent as usual.
“The number of new homes sold is about the same as the mid-to-late 1980s with a much larger population.”
Maybe little Brucie boy is too stupid to know what the two candidates are saying. Harris has a plan to increase housing especially in overly regulated high priced areas. Trump has his plan – drill, baby, drill. Yea – Trump is THAT STUPID!
With respect to the age of cars, onw thing that must also be accounted for is that cars are likely more durable and reliable than they used to be.
“cars are likely more durable and reliable than they used to be”.
For most people – yes. But remember – little Brucie does not even get one must change the oil. Yea – Brucie was the most incompetent person ever to work at Ford.
Your comment caused me to read Brucie’s link. Something tells me Brucie did not read it. I say this for two reasons. The tone of the story confirms what you wisely said and not the snide Trumpian spin Brucie boy routinely spews. And then we see this:
The rising age of registered vehicles follows early trends seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw new-car prices skyrocket, leading to a massive decline in sales. As of last month, the average transaction price on new vehicles was just over $45,000, according to J.D. Power. That figure is more than $2000 cheaper than the peak, reached in December 2022, but shows a stark difference compared to the $33,695 average price in April 2019.
Huh – Trump’s mismanagement of COVID led to a price spike for new cars. But under Biden, this price spike has been at least partially reversed.
Gee Brucie – you just gave us yet another reason to praise Biden. And another call for you to return to your kindergarten class so maybe one day you will know how to read at the level of a six year old.
Very true. Cars die when the cost to repair is more than the cost to purchase a similar car. During Covid, car purchase prices increased, so more cars would be repaired. It should also be noted that the reduced driving during Covid extended the life of cars. Finally the lifespan of an EV is longer than ICE cars – so the increased overall lifespan may in part reflect the shift toward more durable EVs.
Here is the first paragraph from Brucie’s link:
“The average age of vehicles in use on American roads has continued to trend upward at a pretty steady pace for the past 10 years or so.”
So, the economy right now must be in trouble because a ten-year trend has continued. Wow.
Unless it isn’t a ten-year trend… Turns out, Car and Driver’s reporter was relying on a truncated data series. (Tell-tale sign if truncated data series: “at least” so many years.) If one bothered to check, one would find out that the average age of U.S. vehicles has been rising for decades:
https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-trucks-operation-united-states
Also, one would find out that the average age of light trucks (including SUVs) is rising slowly, while the average age of cars is rising faster. That has everything to do with the durability of modern vehicles and the modern preference for trucks.
The bit about more cars being under water when traded in? That’s a personal choice on the part of the buyer. Brucie wants it to be a problem, but it isn’t necessarily. These people have the means to pay off the balance on the old loan and to buy a new car. Isn’t that a sign of their financial health? Brucie is certainly in no position to claim otherwise. And, by the way, the newly purchased vehicle brings down the average age of the fleet. Brucie is trying to have it both ways: is the rising age of the vehicle fleet a problem or not?
The rest of Brucie’s story is the same old story that many people have told: too much indebtedness. Yeah, and? Rising indebtedness has been going since soon after the housing crash, and was going on long before the housing crash. Do you have a solution? I do, but you wouldn’t like it.
Brucie’s story really boils down to “things are bad”. Unemployment is low, employment is rising, real incomes are rising, output is rising, but “things are bad”. Because cars are old. Right.
Brucie boy is whining we do not have “real rebuttal” to his alleged “point”. If Brucie boy ever made a real point in the first damn place then maybe we could rebut. Alas Brucie boy babbles trash in search of a point that is never there.
How dumb is Bruce Hall? Try this retort:
Bruce Hall
October 19, 2024 at 6:39 pm
pgl, you are correct. Prices for homes did increase in the last two quarters of Trump’s administration
Brucie boy started this thread by linking to this:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QUSR628BIS
Real Residential Property Prices for United States
The series HE linked to show inflation adjusted prices rose for the entire period of time when Trump was in office. And yet this MORON now says they only rose for the last two quarters of the Trump reign?
I mean this is stupid, there is retarded, and then there is Bruce Hall in a class of idiocy all to himself!
pgl: My impression is that he has difficulty distinguishing between nominal and real magnitudes in graphs.