Inflation Surprises Illustrated

For CPI and PPI vis a vis Bloomberg consensus:

Figure 1: Month-on-Month (non-annualized) inflation for headline CPI (blue), core CPI (tan), headline PPI (green), and core PPI (red), all in percent decimal format. Bloomberg consensus as symbols, same respective colors. Source: BLS, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

Instantaneous inflation (per Eeckhout (2023)) does not tell a different story than the standard y/y or q/q measures.

Figure 2: Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023) for CPI (blue) core CPI (tan), PPI (green), core PPI (red). Source: BLS, via FRED and author’s calculations.

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