PPI figure on seasonally adjusted by author data. NSA m/m change is 36.5% (log differences).
i
Figure 1: Top panel – Consumer Price of Dozen Eggs (blue, left scale), ERS forecast of January 2025 for end 2025 (blue square, left scale), both in $, and PPI for fresh eggs (tan, right scale), 1991M12=100. Bottom panel: Trading Economics futures price for dozen eggs (blue), and TradingEconomics model and analyst based forecast (gray). Source: BLS, ERS, TradingEconomics.com.
Addendum:
ERS, PPI-based, and futures implied egg prices…
Figure 2: Consumer Price of Dozen Eggs (blue, left scale), ERS forecast of January 2025 for end 2025 (blue square, left scale), OLS forecast based on price-lagged PPI relationship (red triangle), all in $, and PPI for fresh eggs (brown, right scale), and TradingEconomics forecast (2/13/2025) implied PPI for eggs (tan square), all in1991M12=100. Trading Economics futures price for dozen eggs (blue), and TradingEconomics model and analyst based forecast (gray). Source: BLS, ERS, TradingEconomics.com.
Forecast using lagged PPI regression equation (2020M01-2025M01) is:
pt = -2.85 + 0.69ppit-1 + ut
Adj.R2 = 0.88, SER = 0.125, DW = 1.96. Bold indicates significant at 1% msl using HAC robust standard errors.
I would say that if this virus develops ability to pass human to human – the incompetent corrupt Trump administration will have another pandemic to deal with – egg prices will be the least of their worries https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2025/02/13/nx-s1-5296672/cdc-bird-flu-study-mmwr-veterinarians
Yes indeed we could be in for something that would make Covid look like a walk in the park
When the sh!t hits the fan – competence is absolute key.
Off topic – budget negotiations:
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5143160-hardliners-gop-leadership-deal-budget-resolution/
House Republicans have reached a deal on the budget. What clinched it is a gimmick which gives the Budget Committee Chair authority to increase tax cuts to match any additional spending cuts arrived at by other Committees.
What this means is that House Republicans will not allow a smaller deficit increase than already planned – an increase that will already mean trillions in additional debt. Any spending cut arrived at during coming Cimmittee negotiations will all go to tax cuts. The gimmick which allows the House budget process to continue locks in trillions of additional debt.
Senate Republicans were reportedly not in board with House plans, even before this plan to lock in trillions in extra debt. Most of theory opposition was to large spending cuts, so a gimmick to allow even larger cuts may not go down well. We’ll see.
republicans reportedly intend to increase the debt limit by over $4 trillion dollars. funny how they were against debt limit increases, until trump came to power. now they want to increase by $4 trillion? apparently the debt is not as big as deal to them as their complaining last year indicated
I must say, republicans are making a case for me to switch parties. we have an upper income household, so obviously doing well and not in need of government handouts. but in texas, republicans are going to give me an additional $10k per year to cover private school tuition. thanks, tuition was covered already, but this will fund a nice extra vacation each year. and if trump can extend additional tax cuts, maybe I get an additional $10k per year bonus from my federal taxes. that additional $20k per year won’t all be spent. much of it will collect 5% treasury returns once inflation picks up again. those funds will be locked in longer term, to collect long after the recession drops rates in the future. I am not sure how all of this money back helps the us in the long run, but is sure does pad my pockets. keep up the lobbying on my behalf, rick stryker. if you guys want to screw up the future, at least keep me as a beneficiary.
This reminds me of Valentine’s Day 2021 when cynics were noting that Joe Biden had not stopped the COVID virus after less than a month in office and are now questioning why the Avian flu virus is still affecting egg prices. (Well, nobody was actually making those kind of questions in 2021)
Although know for quite awhile as a “bird” flu, the H1N5 virus’ ability to impact our larger food chain could be called (appropriately?) a Black Swan event.
A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences.
Black swan events are extremely rare and unpredictable, going outside of normal expectations. They are characterized by their potentially severe impact and the widespread insistence that they were obvious in hindsight.
Bird flu is not an event with unknown consequences. It is not coming out of the blue. That is why the biden administration was monitoring it. Not sure why trump has chosen to ignore it.
Of course it is an event with known consequences for birds, but more recently the surprise has been the spread to other agricultural animals and the potential damage that could be sustained. However, relatively little regarding transmission to humans was studied prior to January 20, 2025 with no actionable plans.
Regardless, until now, there was no approved method of minimizing the damage one an area was contaminated with the virus. Until now. Today, however….
https://www.science.org/content/article/u-s-conditionally-approves-vaccine-protect-poultry-avian-flu
With egg prices in the United States soaring because of the spread of H5N1 influenza virus among poultry, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) yesterday conditionally approved a vaccine to protect the birds. President Donald Trump’s administration may therefore soon face a fraught decision on whether to join the ranks of other nations—including China, France, Egypt, and Mexico—that vaccinate poultry against H5N1.
Although many influenza researchers contend that vaccination can help control spread of the deadly virus, the U.S. government has long resisted allowing its use because of politics and trade concerns that many contend are unscientific. The USDA approval may signal a shift in policy linked to the Trump administration’s worries about egg prices. Even with the conditional approval, USDA must still approve its use before farmers can start to administer the vaccine because special regulations apply to H5N1 and other so-called highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses.
The vaccine, made by Zoetis, contains a killed version of an H5N2 variant that the company has designed to work against circulating variants of the H5N1 virus that have decimated poultry flocks and have even jumped to cows and some humans. (The “H” in both variants stands for hemagglutinin, the surface protein of the virus, and antibodies against it are the main mechanism of vaccine-induced protection.) Researchers at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported yesterday that three cow veterinarians harbored antibodies to the H5N1 virus in dairy cattle. None had symptomatic disease, they noted in the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, suggesting the virus may be more widespread in humans than previously thought
https://www.science.org/content/article/u-s-conditionally-approves-vaccine-protect-poultry-avian-flu
The notion that the Trump Administration has attempted to block progress toward a vaccine is erroneous. If anything, Trump has a significant vested interest in finding an effective defense against the virus if for no other reason than to keep food prices lower. Unfortunately, as we leared from COVID, some SAARS and flu viruses can mutate quickley and finding a sustainable defense is like playing Whack A Mole.
“ but more recently the surprise has been the spread to other agricultural animals and the potential damage that could be sustained. However, relatively little regarding transmission to humans was studied prior to January 20, 2025 with no actionable plans”
Bruce this is not accurate. Trump would not let government agencies publish their results. And nobody in the field is surprised by interspecies spread of the virus. Why must you make up strawman arguments all of the time?
Bruce, why does doge appear to resemble the culture wars during the great upheaval of mao in china? Trump and doge are acting exactly like mao and the ccp when they consolidated power in the 60s and 70s. Why are you copying mao’s behavior, bruce?