A week ago, Atlanta Fed’s nowcast of consumption was 2.2% q/q annualized; now it’s zero.
Figure 1: Nonresidential equipment investment (blue, left scale), consumption (brown, right scale), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDPNow levels calculated by applying the 3/3 nowcast growth rate to 2024Q4 2nd release values. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed (3/3/2025 release), and author’s calculations.
In the 11 or so years of nowcasted consumption growth, there have been no instances of negative values (or zero values) outside of 2020, so this is a somewhat remarkable occurrence.
Slowly at first, then all at once..
Off topic – China’s plan to dominate information technology:
https://www.scmp.com/author/hao-nan
Here’s the blurb:
“By providing AI-powered products, infrastructure, governance tools and data-driven insights, China aims to reshape the global digital order.”
Further down: “…China is positioning itself as the dominant AI player in developing economies.”
Hao Nan, the author if this piece, is from the Carhar Institute, which is located in China and “committed to promoting China’s foreign policy”, so this is not some outsiders opinion. Hao is an unofficial policy spokesman.
This is Samuel Huntington “Clash of Civilizations” stuff, without the strong GWOT focus.