A week ago, Atlanta Fed’s nowcast of consumption was 2.2% q/q annualized; now it’s zero.
Figure 1: Nonresidential equipment investment (blue, left scale), consumption (brown, right scale), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDPNow levels calculated by applying the 3/3 nowcast growth rate to 2024Q4 2nd release values. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed (3/3/2025 release), and author’s calculations.
In the 11 or so years of nowcasted consumption growth, there have been no instances of negative values (or zero values) outside of 2020, so this is a somewhat remarkable occurrence.
Slowly at first, then all at once..
Off topic – China’s plan to dominate information technology:
https://www.scmp.com/author/hao-nan
Here’s the blurb:
“By providing AI-powered products, infrastructure, governance tools and data-driven insights, China aims to reshape the global digital order.”
Further down: “…China is positioning itself as the dominant AI player in developing economies.”
Hao Nan, the author if this piece, is from the Carhar Institute, which is located in China and “committed to promoting China’s foreign policy”, so this is not some outsiders opinion. Hao is an unofficial policy spokesman.
This is Samuel Huntington “Clash of Civilizations” stuff, without the strong GWOT focus.
i warned you all that no one in this administration knows what all those numbers mean..
The Trump administration may exclude government spending from GDP, obscuring the impact of DOGE cuts —
(AP) — Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that government spending could be separated from gross domestic product reports, in response to questions about whether the spending cuts pushed by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency could possibly cause an economic downturn.
“You know that governments historically have messed with GDP,” Lutnick said on Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures.” “They count government spending as part of GDP. So I’m going to separate those two and make it transparent.”