A week ago, Atlanta Fed’s nowcast of consumption was 2.2% q/q annualized; now it’s zero.

Figure 1: Nonresidential equipment investment (blue, left scale), consumption (brown, right scale), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDPNow levels calculated by applying the 3/3 nowcast growth rate to 2024Q4 2nd release values. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed (3/3/2025 release), and author’s calculations.

In the 11 or so years of nowcasted consumption growth, there have been no instances of negative values (or zero values) outside of 2020, so this is a somewhat remarkable occurrence.