A lot of money is at stake. Would CBP be able to refund the monies collected (using millions of paper checks…)?

Source: Bloomberg.

Some importers say no. So, striking down the IEEPA tariffs might not bring down trade policy uncertainty much, as long as Trump is in place. Even if Trump doesn’t try to replace IEEPA tariffs with Sec 232 tariffs.

Figure 1: EPU-trade (blue, left scale), Average effective tariff rate (red, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com and Pawel Skrzypczynski .