The Administration is mulling a $10-14 billion bailout package for ag producers, with emphasis on soybean farmers (deja vu!). Farmer sentiment is pretty low relative to the exuberance note in the aftermath of Trump’s election, as this Purdue/CME survey released today shows:

Expectations are low in part because of the sharp decrease in inflation adjusted (CPI) commodity receipts over the previous two years, combined with rising input costs.

Figure 1: Farm net cash income (bold black line), government support (tan bar), rest of income (blue bar), expenses (green bar), all in bn2025$. 2025 figure is ERS estimate. Source: ERS USDA (Sept 2025).

Were it not for (estimated) government support, net (cash) income would be flat, in real terms). Moreover, if one plotted the same graph with government support as a share of net income, it would become clearer how dependent the ag sector is on support, given the trade war.

(China has not bought any soybeans since May, and in September has bought none, and has not commitments to buy — a first in decades.)