Compare to 2.8% y/y, 2.7% q/q AR.
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12,a=4) for core CPI (blue), core PCE deflator (brown), supercore CPI (green), all in decimal form %. Calculations per Eeckhout (2023).Source: BLS, BEA, and author’s calculations.
So y/y core PCE inflation is 0.2 percentage points above target rate of 2%, while instantaneous is 0.6 percentage points. Cleveland Fed nowcast of today indicates 2.9% instantaneous inflation rate for October.
Given the Supreme Court’s ruling yesterday on racist gerrymandering by the state of Texas, this can’t be good news:
https://www.npr.org/2025/12/05/nx-s1-5619186/supreme-court-agrees-to-hear-arguments-in-birthright-citizenship-case
If the Supreme Court takes up a case like this, there’s a very good chance the conservative majority intends to overturn another long tradition of liberty and justice for all.