Compare to 2.8% y/y, 2.7% q/q AR.
Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12,a=4) for core CPI (blue), core PCE deflator (brown), supercore CPI (green), all in decimal form %. Calculations per Eeckhout (2023).Source: BLS, BEA, and author’s calculations.
So y/y core PCE inflation is 0.2 percentage points above target rate of 2%, while instantaneous is 0.6 percentage points. Cleveland Fed nowcast of today indicates 2.9% instantaneous inflation rate for October.
Given the Supreme Court’s ruling yesterday on racist gerrymandering by the state of Texas, this can’t be good news:
https://www.npr.org/2025/12/05/nx-s1-5619186/supreme-court-agrees-to-hear-arguments-in-birthright-citizenship-case
If the Supreme Court takes up a case like this, there’s a very good chance the conservative majority intends to overturn another long tradition of liberty and justice for all.
I’m inclined to think they took it up to be able to claim they’re just “calling balls and strikes” by ruling against Trump. That way, Trump only wins 80% of the cases that a) make it to the Supreme Court and b) have gone against him in the lower courts, instead of 83%. Proof!
All numbers courtesy of the fine people at RFK’s Department of Quackery /s, but it was 80% as of a couple of months ago.