My estimates based on ADP, JOLTS based estimate (courtesy Paweł Skrzypczyński). Delayed CES report on 12/16 (coming out with November release).
Figure 1: Implied preliminary benchmark (black), ADP implied estimate (tan), CPS series adjusted to NFP concept, using experimental series with smoothed population controls (red), and JOLTS-implied NFP increase (green inverted triangle). Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, ADP and author’s calculations, Paweł Skrzypczyński.
The JOLTS implied increase in NFP is 100K, my estimate (using nowcasted private NFP, trend +22K government employment, and -150K government losses involved with the DFP) is -82.6K; Capital Economics as of yesterday (not shown) is -60K, while Brusuelas/RSM is at +80K (+40K in November, with likely downward revisions to September). All in all, lots of variance, but nobody is guessing at a massive surge.
Powell said yesterday that the birth/death model may have been over-estimating job growth by 60,000 per month since April. That seems pretty obviously a reference to the damaging effects of tariffs on smaller firms. In other words, Powell isn’t going to let the felon-in-chief have it both ways; if the felon gets his rate cut, it’s because the felon’s policies have hurt the economy so much that rate cuts are needed.
ADP attempts to emulate the establishment survey, unless something has changed. Maybe ADP is also over-estimating job growth. Here’s the comparison:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1OKxV
As I understand it, the birth/death model is slow to turn when economic conditions change, so that it is not some novel idea Powell has cooked up to suggest the model is too optimistic now. Business application data through August suggest that, if the model is over optimistic now, its because of firm deaths. Births have remained strong:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1OKyy
Of course, the shutdown means we don’t have more recent data.
Off topic – Bah! Humbug!:
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/12/11/congress/senate-rejects-health-care-bills-00686855
Both the Republican and Democratic health insurance bills failed to garner enough votes to get past a filibuster today. House Speaker Johnson says House Republicans will introduce a bill next week to do…something. So far, no details have been been provided. In any case, a House bill would have to pass the Senate, which seems unlikely after today’s performance. Johnson is just going through the motions before millions face a huge insurance cost increase in January; “See? We tried, but those mean old Democrats!”
Nice tax cut. Happy New Year.