Just under two months ago, GDPNow’s estimate of the contribution of final sales to private domestic purchasers (sum of consumption and fixed investment) to GDP growth (q/q AR) was 2.84%, close to the Survey of Professional Forecasters’ median; now it’s 2.15%.

Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (black), GDPNow nowcast (light blue square), November Survey of Professional Forecasters median (tan), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed 12/11, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.