Economic Policy Uncertainty spikes on Sunday.

Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), seven day centered moving average (red, left scale), and Trade Policy Uncertainty (green, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com and Caldara et al. TPU, and author’s calculations.

I think it’s mostly attributable to the uncertainty surrounding a end-of-month Federal government shutdown. Prediction markets showed a big jump in the likelihood of a shutdown on Saturday.

Source: Kalshi, accessed 1/25/2026, 9:30pm CT.