That’s a title of a Bloomberg article, coming right after the Trump (temporary?) retreat on Greenland related tariffs. Economic Policy Uncertainty is likely to stay elevated for a while.
President Donald Trump threatened Canada with 100% tariffs against all its exports to the US if it makes a trade deal with China, escalating tensions between the US and its northern neighbor.
…
Carney said he expects China to cut tariffs on Canadian rapeseed, also known as canola, after meeting Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Jan. 16. It was the first visit by a Canadian leader to Beijing in eight years.
In return, Canada will allow 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into its market at a tariff rate of about 6%, removing a 100% surtax. Canada had put the large tariff on Chinese EVs in 2024 to align with US policy.
Polymarket is placing some 28% probability on a general tariff rate increase on Canadian imports as of 4pm CT, although there is no calculated probability of a 100% tariff rate being implemented.
Figure 1: Polymarket odds, as of 4pm 1/24/2026.
Policy uncertainty was already elevated, on the heels of the Greenland fiasco, and is likely to show up in indices going forward. Here are the ones available as of today, 4pm CT:
Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), 7 day centered moving average (bold red, left scale), and Trade Policy Uncertainty (green, right scale). Orange shading denotes Trump 2.0 administration, dark orange the Federal government shutdown. Source: policyuncertainty.com and TPU, and author’s calculations.
Trump’s threat is enabled by the Supreme Court’s refusal to strike down the IEEPA tariffs. Each day the court delays is another day Trump injures the US and global economies.
Does Trump know that Canada provides nearly all of the natural gas consumed by the upper Midwest as temps hover around zero? Does he know that Canada also provides electricity to the Northeast? What if Canada decides to play hardball and restricts those exports?
Does Bruce Hall know that Trump is an economic ignoramus?
Looks like the latest killing of a U.S. citizen by ICE agents has at last provided Senate Democrats with a spine.
Even Chuck Schumer is threatening action, though Mark Warner is apparently the one who got the job done:
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5704987-schumer-opposes-dhs-bill/
I guess threats to democracy are no longer merely “a distraction from what voters care about”. At least for today. Thanks, Chuck.
This can’t be good:
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/24/scott-bessent-banks-00744468
Bessent says “deregulate banks like it’s 1990”.
Here’s FIRE (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing) asa share of GDP:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1QS4y
At 21.7% FIRE is by far the largest sector of the economy, and larger now than ever before. Between the passage of the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 and repeal of its most important provisions with the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1990, financial crises were rare in the U.S., with the S&L crisis was the only major exception. Since the repeal, we’ve had the Dot.Com crash, the mortgage crash, the collapse of FTX and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and friends. We’ve got crypto running out of our ears, the Buffett indicator 2.4 standard deviations out of whack, the felon-in-chief trying to grab control of the Fed and a second-rate hedge fund manager running Treasury. What could go wrong?
When major governmental agencies dither, refusing to make decisions, and “waiting to see,” they lose control and trust. Wilson’s inability to make decisions during WWI, Johnson’s inability to take control of the US intelligence agencies beginning in 1966; now the Supreme Court dithers and waits. It is no wonder American are losing faith.
Here’s Ipsos taking a crack at election forecasting:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/what-midterm-projections-tell-us-about-trumps-central-struggle
The special hook is that they use 5 different approaches to handicapping control of the House next term – historical mid-term swings, voter preference polling, gerrymandering and so on. In every case, Democrats win a majority by a small margin.
If anyone can squander this advantage, current Democratic leaders can.
Trump shuffles his feet. Holds stairway railing with wrong arm. Cradles his arm. Garbles his speech. Lacks understanding about what is happening in the world around him. Bruises easily, and claims that is the result of aspirin therapy. But 100mg aspirin daily is preventive dose. He is taking 325mg daily, which is preventive AFTER you have already had a primary stroke. That mri and other exams? Probably meant to examine effects of stroke. What is the White House hiding in regards to the president’s health? Coverup?