The Cleveland Fed nowcast for February 2026 as of today is 2.34%.
Figure 1: Year-on-Year headline CPI inflation (bold blue), CPI ex-shelter (red), Truflation inflation (green). Truflation measures are at mid-month, except for February, which is for 2/8/2026. CPI-headline January and February 2026 observation is Cleveland Fed nowcasts of 2/8/2026. Source: BLS, Truflation, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
If the true underlying y/y inflation rate is 0.68%, we must be coming close to deflation, which typically accompanies very slow growth in aggregate demand.
See more discussion relating to the Truflation index here.
An interesting commentary on year-ago predictions and results.
https://www.facebook.com/tom.wilson.1840/posts/pfbid022thqdP1a4Cjr9WCU4RExQjzE9bAepTADskH5Aqg5kZwkX32m6wSYmUTQYK11oxHRl
Sooner or later there will be higher inflation, lower GDP growth, and a stock market correction. Just not now.