Tensions in the Mideast cause a spike. One hour into futures trading:
2 thoughts on “Oil Jumps 13%”
Macroduck
We are in the early “fog of war” period, in which we know that we’re shooting at Iran and Iran is shooting back, and tha oil is up and people are dying, but not much else. This time may be a little foggier than usual, because the felon-in-chief hasn’t bothered to make the case for war. One thing we do know, because the felon has said so out loud, is that we want regime change in Iran.
From Politico:
‘Acording to Donald Trump, Iranians have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. “The hour of your freedom is at hand,” he declared, as U.S. and Israeli warplanes pounded Iranian cities and the compound of the country’s supreme leader. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will probably be your only chance for generations.”
Problem is, there is no record of aerial bombardment leading to regime change:
‘“Never,” Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago who studies air power and regime change, replied when I asked whether what Washington was doing in Iran had succeeded elsewhere. “Bombings have never led people to take to the streets and topple their leader.”’
Rather, in at least one instance, our government prompting disaffected citizens to take to the streets got tens of thousands killed:
‘In February 1991, as the American military laid waste to the Iraqi armed forces, U.S. President George H.W. Bush made an appeal. Speaking on international television, Bush called on “the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein, the dictator, to step aside.” … after the protests began, Saddam’s forces deployed helicopters, artillery and ground troops against their own citizens. They then slaughtered upwards of 50,000 Iraqis in less than five weeks. The uprising was put down, and Saddam held onto power for another 12 years.’
The only time in the past year that the price of Brent has been higher than now was last June, during the 12-day war between Iran and Israel (which had help from the U.S). There are a whole bunch of moving parts to the oil market, including the duration of the current U.S. attack, so it’s hard to guess whether last June is much of a guide to prices during this current war.
One point to consider is that OPEC has been gradually ramping up exports over the past few quarters, to the point that only the UAE and Saudi Arabia are likely to have much room for more. It’s not even clear either of them can do much more in the near term.
We are in the early “fog of war” period, in which we know that we’re shooting at Iran and Iran is shooting back, and tha oil is up and people are dying, but not much else. This time may be a little foggier than usual, because the felon-in-chief hasn’t bothered to make the case for war. One thing we do know, because the felon has said so out loud, is that we want regime change in Iran.
From Politico:
‘Acording to Donald Trump, Iranians have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. “The hour of your freedom is at hand,” he declared, as U.S. and Israeli warplanes pounded Iranian cities and the compound of the country’s supreme leader. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will probably be your only chance for generations.”
Problem is, there is no record of aerial bombardment leading to regime change:
‘“Never,” Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago who studies air power and regime change, replied when I asked whether what Washington was doing in Iran had succeeded elsewhere. “Bombings have never led people to take to the streets and topple their leader.”’
Rather, in at least one instance, our government prompting disaffected citizens to take to the streets got tens of thousands killed:
‘In February 1991, as the American military laid waste to the Iraqi armed forces, U.S. President George H.W. Bush made an appeal. Speaking on international television, Bush called on “the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein, the dictator, to step aside.” … after the protests began, Saddam’s forces deployed helicopters, artillery and ground troops against their own citizens. They then slaughtered upwards of 50,000 Iraqis in less than five weeks. The uprising was put down, and Saddam held onto power for another 12 years.’
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/03/01/iran-uprising-trump-khamenei-regime-change-00806179
“This time will be different” seems a poor rationale for war.
A little context…
The only time in the past year that the price of Brent has been higher than now was last June, during the 12-day war between Iran and Israel (which had help from the U.S). There are a whole bunch of moving parts to the oil market, including the duration of the current U.S. attack, so it’s hard to guess whether last June is much of a guide to prices during this current war.
One point to consider is that OPEC has been gradually ramping up exports over the past few quarters, to the point that only the UAE and Saudi Arabia are likely to have much room for more. It’s not even clear either of them can do much more in the near term.