Most recent data (last available Caldara et al. TPU at 3/6):
Figure 1: EPU-trade (blue, left scale), TPU (red, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com and TPU.
Section 301 investigations announced the day before yesterday.
Most recent data (last available Caldara et al. TPU at 3/6):
Figure 1: EPU-trade (blue, left scale), TPU (red, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com and TPU.
Section 301 investigations announced the day before yesterday.
Off topic – Steve Kopits recently linked to his own piece on the outlook for oil with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed:
“$7 Gasoline, WTI $200, Hegseth out?”
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/03/economic-policy-uncertainty-financial-risk-geopolitical-risk-expected-inflation-and-oil-volatility#comment-322420
In that piece, he observed:
“From 2011 to 2014, Brent averaged $110 / barrel, $150 / barrel in inflation-adjusted terms. Despite high prices, oil consumption still grew by 3% during that period.”
Also, y’all recall there was no recession in the U.S. or globally during that period – thus the rise in oil consumption.
By way of comparison, here’s Paul Krugman:
“Oil Prices Could Easily Go Much Higher”
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/oil-prices-could-easily-go-much-higher
In it, he writes:
“I … wanted to say something I suspect many economists are thinking, but which I haven’t seen clearly expressed: the world economy’s very robustness to oil price shocks may lead to extremely high oil prices.”
He argues that, for oil prices to fall in the relatively near term with the Strait closed:
“…the price of oil would have to rise enough to cause a global economic crisis even though the world is much less oil-dependent than it used to be.”
He concludes:
“I’ve seen some alarmists warn that a long war in the Gulf could lead to oil at $150 a barrel. That looks low to me.”