EPU, VIX and GPR:

Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), 7 day centered moving average (bold red, left scale), VIX (green, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com, CBOE via FRED, and author’s calculations.

Figure 2: Geopolitical Risk Index (black), 7 day centered moving average (pink). Source: Caldara, et al., and author’s calculations.

Inflation breakeven and DKW estimates of 5 year inflation.

Figure 3: 5 year Inflation break-even/Treasury-TIPS spread (blue), DKW expected inflation estimate (red), both in %. Source: Treasury via FRED, Fed/DKW.

Volatility is still here.

While oil prices are down, the implied volatility of oil prices remains high. Here’s the CBOE oil ETF volatility index:

Figure 4: CBOE oil ETF volatility index. Source: CBOE via FRED.