From inflation breakevens, estimated:

Figure 1: 5 year Treasury-TIPS spread (blue), expected 5 year inflation from DKW (red), both in %. Source: Treasury via FRED, Fed.

Through 3/31, the TIPS-Treasury spread has increased by 14 bps (21 bps by 4/3), while the DKW estimate of expected inflation has risen by 10 bps. Back of the envelope calculation, if it’s 10 bps for a 5 year horizon, then it can translate into a 50 bps increase in one year, and 0 bps increase thereafter — or some combination thereof.

Over the month of March, each one percentage point change in the inflation breakeven is associated with 0.20 percentage point change in expected inflation (relation estimated in first differences).